Middle East - Israel and Hezbollah warn each other - concern about outbreak of war grows
## Concerns of War Breakout Between Israel and Hezbollah in Lebanon Grow
The fear of a war breakout between Israel and the pro-Iranian Hezbollah militia in Lebanon is growing. If there is no agreement on a ceasefire in the Gaza War between Israel and the Hamas, which is aligned with Hezbollah, it is likely that there will be a large-scale military confrontation between Israel and the militia in the coming weeks, Politico reported on Thursday, citing US intelligence information. The US is preparing for this scenario by making arrangements for the evacuation of its citizens from Lebanon, NBC reported, quoting reliable US sources. On Thursday evening, Hezbollah fired around 35 rockets into northern Israel, the Israeli army reported. The Shia militia described the attack as a response to the killing of one of its fighters hours earlier.
US Bracing for Escalation
The Pentagon has deployed an additional warship and a marine expeditionary unit to reinforce US troops in the region in the Mediterranean Sea, in preparation for a possible evacuation of American citizens, NBC further reported. The move serves both for evacuation purposes and to deter further escalation of the conflict, it was stated. US officials are increasingly concerned that Israel may conduct intensive air strikes and even a ground offensive in Lebanon in the coming weeks, it was reported.
"Nasrallah's logic is that everything is connected to the Gaza Strip and that Israel's shelling will not stop until there is a ceasefire in the Gaza Strip," a senior US official told the Wall Street Journal, quoting a senior US official. This logic is rejected. Hezbollah has recently intensified its rocket and drone attacks, increasing pressure on Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's government.
Pressure on Netanyahu Intensifies
Some 2000 people protested outside Netanyahu's private villa in Caesarea near Tel Aviv on Thursday evening, demanding steps towards the release of hostages held by Hamas in the Gaza Strip and the resignation of the prime minister, according to the news portal ynet. They chanted slogans such as "How much more blood will be spilled before you go?" and "Bring the hostages back – and go!" The Islamic Hamas and other extremist groups had launched an attack on southern Israel on 7 October last year, killing over 1200 people and kidnapping over 250.
Some 120 people are still believed to be in the hands of the terrorists. The Wall Street Journal reported that the number of living hostages could be as low as 50. The indirect negotiations, in which the US, Egypt, and Qatar are mediating, are stuck in a deadlock. Critics accuse Netanyahu of not taking the negotiations seriously to avoid offending his ultra-religious and right-wing coalition partners. His political survival depends on them. Netanyahu blames the intransigent stance of Hamas for the stalling of the negotiations.
During this time, there have been daily gunfights between Israel's army and Hezbollah in the border area between Israel and Lebanon since the beginning of the Gaza War nearly nine months ago. The fighting has recently intensified. On both sides, there have been fatalities. On Thursday, Israel's air force reportedly killed three Hezbollah fighters. In response, the militia fired dozens of rockets into northern Israel. Most of the rockets were intercepted by Israel's army, and no injuries were reported.
In settlements on both sides of the border, mutual shooting has caused significant damage. Approximately 150,000 people have been evacuated or have left the war zone. According to the "Financial Times," Israel's military has reportedly devastated wide areas of southern Lebanon and "created a new reality." Entire city quarters and farmland have been destroyed, as reported in the newspaper on Thursday based on satellite images, government statistics, and conversations with local officials. Near-daily aerial bombardment and artillery fire have made large parts of the five kilometers north of the Blue Line uninhabitable.
Israel demands Hezbollah withdrawal
The Blue Line refers to the United Nations-drawn demarcation line at the border between the two countries. Following the second Lebanon War in 2006, a buffer zone was established in the south of Lebanon. UN Resolution 1701 prohibited the deployment of the Hezbollah militia south of the Litani River, the border area with Israel. Israeli troops, in turn, were required to withdraw behind the Blue Line. Israel is also demanding that the Hezbollah militia withdraw north of the Litani River, which is approximately 30 kilometers from the border.
The UN Observer Mission UNIFIL, which has monitored the border area between Israel and Lebanon since 1978, has recently expressed great concern over the increasing tensions. The German military is also involved in the UNIFIL mission with up to 300 soldiers. The Bundestag extended the mandate for the UN mission on Thursday. There is no problem with UN peacekeepers, Lebanese forces, or civilians being present there, but the area must be "cleansed" of the presence of Hezbollah, according to a high-ranking Israeli military officer quoted by the "Financial Times."
Hezbollah and Israel warn each other
The Iran-backed Hezbollah is not only the strongest military and political force in Lebanon but also controls the south of the country. "Asking us to withdraw from the south is like asking a fish not to swim in the sea," a Hezbollah fighter was quoted as saying by the newspaper, without naming him. The militia is allied with Hamas but is considered significantly more powerful. "If the Israelis declare war on Lebanon, the resistance will respond without limitations, rules, or boundaries," Hezbollah leader Nasrallah warned once again in his latest statement.
Israel's Defense Minister Joav Galant warned again during a visit to Washington this week that his country is capable of pushing Lebanon back to the Stone Age in a war with Hezbollah, according to the "Times of Israel" report. However, Galant also emphasized that a diplomatic solution should be preferred. "We don't want a war, but we are preparing for every scenario," Galant further quoted. No Hezbollah troops will be accepted at the border. It is feared that a war could expand into a regional conflict, drawing in the USA. The USA joined a growing list of countries – including Germany – on Thursday, advising their citizens to leave Lebanon due to the risk of war.
- The ongoing Gaza War between Israel and Hamas, which is aligned with Hezbollah, has raised concerns of an outbreak of war between Israel and Hezbollah in Lebanon.
- If Benjamin Netanyahu's government fails to take serious negotiations to secure the release of hostages held by Hamas, it could intensify pressure on him, as shown by the recent protests outside his villa in Caesarea.
- The recent escalation of rocket and drone attacks by Hezbollah near the border between Israel and Lebanon has prompted Israel to demand a Hezbollah withdrawal north of the Litani River, which is approximately 30 kilometers from the border.
- With tensions growing and both Israel and Hezbollah warning each other of the possibility of war, the USA and other countries have advised their citizens to leave Lebanon due to the risk of war.
