Middle East - Israel and Hezbollah: Concerns about approaching war
18 years after the last Lebanon War, concerns are growing in Israel for a new outbreak of war between Israel and the pro-Iranian Hezbollah militia in Lebanon. In Israel, people are stocking up on water and supplies, while in Lebanon, there is mainly resignation.
Many people in the unstable and economically struggling country feel they cannot handle another crisis. Currently, there is neither a president nor a fully functioning government in Lebanon.
According to the US portal "Politico," citing US intelligence information, if there is no agreement on a ceasefire in the Gaza War between Israel and the Hamas, linked to Hezbollah, there is a high probability of a large-scale military confrontation between Israel and Hezbollah in the coming weeks. The US, as Israel's main ally, could also be drawn into the conflict. The Iran could also intervene on Hezbollah's side.
What is Hezbollah's connection to the Gaza War?
The massacres and hostage-takings by Palestinian terror organizations like Hamas on October 7 in Israel were the catalyst for the Gaza War. The Lebanese Hezbollah, according to their own statements, acts out of solidarity with Hamas. The "Lebanon Front" is a "support front," as Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah repeatedly emphasized. It is part of the fight that decides the fate of Palestine, Lebanon, and the region.
There have been nearly daily clashes between Israel and the Lebanese Shia militia for almost nine months. The latest clashes have been more intense. "Israel is killing increasingly high-ranking Hezbollah military commanders," wrote the Washington Institute. On Thursday evening, Hezbollah fired dozens of rockets into northern Israel - according to the Shia militia, a response to the killing of one of their fighters earlier.
The Iran-backed Hezbollah militia is reportedly moving its rocket attacks on Israel further south in Lebanon, according to the Washington Institute. A UN resolution from the 2006 war between Israel and Hezbollah states that Hezbollah fighters must remain at least 30 kilometers from the Israeli border and not reside south of this line.
Hezbollah has an arsenal of around 150,000 rockets. In the event of war, they could fire thousands of rockets towards Israel daily. An artillery barrage could overwhelm Israel's rocket defense.
The expansion of the conflict would be deadly and costly, according to the Washington Institute, but it admits, "Another war seems increasingly unavoidable."
US officials are increasingly concerned that Israel may launch air strikes and even a ground offensive in the south of the neighboring country to push back Hezbollah from the border, reported the US broadcaster NBC.
The Israeli newspaper "Haaretz" reported on Thursday that the US had warned Israel that even a limited ground operation in the southern neighboring country to push back Hezbollah from the border could trigger a large-scale war with the Shia militia.
In Israel, the pressure is growing.
Without a formal ceasefire between Israel and Hamas, it is unlikely that Hezbollah will fully surrender. Indirect negotiations between Hamas and Israel's government, mediated by the USA, Egypt, and Qatar, are stuck in a deadlock.
While Hezbollah has no urgency to make concessions, there is growing pressure in Israel, according to the Washington Institute, for residents to return to the North by the beginning of the new school year at the end of September.
Around 150,000 people have left or been evacuated from towns on both sides of the border. Without a diplomatic solution, Israel could be provoked into intensifying its engagements against Hezbollah to establish a buffer zone, according to the think tank. Damage from mutual shelling has caused severe destruction in towns on both sides of the border.
According to the "Financial Times," Israel's military has devastated wide areas of Southern Lebanon and "created a new reality." Whole neighborhoods near the border have been leveled to the ground, and farmland has been destroyed, the newspaper reported on Thursday, citing satellite images, government statistics, and talks with local officials. Near-daily aerial bombardment and artillery fire have made large parts of the five kilometers north of the Blue Line uninhabitable.
De-escalation efforts by the USA have not been successful yet
The USA is trying to prevent an escalation - thus far unsuccessfully. A plan by the Biden administration, according to the Washington Institute, involves Hezbollah withdrawing from the border and the deployment of several thousand soldiers from the Lebanese Army in the area. Simultaneously, the troops of the UN Observer Mission UNIFIL, which has been unable to effectively counter the advance of Hezbollah, are to be supported by additional observers, possibly from Germany.
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The USA is not preparing for the evacuation of its citizens from Lebanon, according to their own statements. A corresponding question regarding American citizens and dependents of the military present in the country was answered by the Pentagon's deputy spokesperson, Sabrina Singh, with "no."
Previously, the US broadcaster NBC reported, citing unnamed US sources, that the deployment of an additional US warship to the Mediterranean was related to the preparation for a possible evacuation. However, the US Central Command confirmed that the "USS Wasp" had been moved to the region in this week and had informed the relevant authorities accordingly. This was, however, part of a previously planned deployment.
Singh commented on the reporting about alleged evacuation scenarios, pointing out that such ships are not only used for militarily supported repatriations. "They are in the region to maintain stability and deter aggression."
Palestinians: Eleven Dead in Attack on Refugee Camps at Rafah
At an attack allegedly carried out by Israel on a refugee camp in the southern Gaza Strip, according to Palestinian reports, at least eleven people were killed. Furthermore, forty more suffered injuries, reported the Palestinian news agency Wafa, quoting hospital doctors. The information could not be independently verified at first.
The attack reportedly targeted tents in Al-Mawasi, west of the border city Rafah. Many people had fled there after the Israeli military began its offensive in the overcrowded city on the border with Egypt in early May. The Israeli army declared parts of Al-Mawasi a "secure zone."
The Israeli army, in response to an inquiry, stated that it had no knowledge of an attack by Israeli troops in Al-Mawasi.
- The potential conflict between Israel and Hezbollah in the Palestinian territories is a cause of concern due to Hezbollah's links to Hamas, as highlighted by the US portal "Politico."
- Iran, as a supporter of Hezbollah, could potentially intervene in the conflict, increasing the complexity of the situation.
- According to recent clashes, Israel is targeting high-ranking Hezbollah military commanders, leading to escalating tensions.
- Hezbollah, backed by Iran, has stated its solidarity with Hamas in the Gaza War, leading to increased speculation of a larger conflict.
- If a ceasefire is not agreed upon in the Gaza War, the probability of a large-scale military confrontation between Israel and Hezbollah is high, according to US intelligence information.
- The US, as Israel's main ally, could potentially be drawn into the conflict, adding another layer of complexity to the Middle East crisis.
- The Iran-backed Hezbollah militia is reportedly moving its rocket attacks farther south in Lebanon, potentially breaching UN resolutions from the 2006 war.
- With Hezbollah's significant arsenal of around 150,000 rockets, an artillery barrage could potentially overwhelm Israel's rocket defense during a conflict.
- The potential escalation of the conflict would be deadly and costly, according to the Washington Institute, but they admit that another war seems increasingly unavoidable.
- The US is attempting to prevent an escalation, but their efforts have been unsuccessful so far, leading to concerns about the potential consequences of the conflict.
