Ischinger: 'We must deal with Trump'
After the attempted assassination on the Republican US Presidential candidate Trump, his chances have significantly increased. What could happen after his election? The guests discuss this in the ZDF talkshow "Maybrit Illner" on Thursday evening.
It doesn't look good for Joe Biden. His chances of winning the US Presidential elections on November 5 have significantly decreased. More and more Democrats are trying to persuade the 81-year-old to withdraw from the campaign. A few days ago, he was tested positive for Coronavirus. A White House spokesperson speaks of mild symptoms, but in new images, he looks exhausted. After the botched TV debate, Biden wanted to restart his campaign. He can't do that now. He is at home in Delaware in isolation. Theoretically, he now has the chance to withdraw his candidacy and hand over the team to his vice presidential candidate Kamala Harris.
In the ZDF show "Maybrit Illner," the guests discuss Biden's illness on Thursday evening. Political scientist Liana Fix will be particularly clear: "The days are numbered for Joe Biden," she says. After the attempted assassination on his challenger Donald Trump, there was a brief pause in the campaign. Everyone was shocked and held their breath. "But Biden's Coronavirus infection has once again clearly highlighted the contrast between the vital Trump and the elderly Biden looking. It's a question of time before he decides to withdraw, not if." After Biden's withdrawal, the race would be wide open again, according to Fix.
Trump's proposal to run with J.D. Vance as his vice president is a significant risk, says Fix. Vance will not win new voter groups for Trump. "He is a radical in the Republican Party. That means the Republicans and especially Trump are very confident. And overconfidence can come before a fall. Thanks to Kamala Harris or another Democratic candidate, it could still get tough for Trump," predicts the expert.
"Pray for a good end to the campaign"
Similarly, former head of the Munich Security Conference, Wolfgang Ischinger, sees it that way. For him, Trump's election is not yet a done deal, assuming Biden withdraws. However, at the moment, Ischinger has only one concern: "Those who believe should now pray for a good and successful result of this currently very heated campaign," says Ischinger, who is watching the Republican Party convention in Milwaukee. The tragic assassination attempt on Trump, which resulted in one death, led the Republicans to rally behind this previously uncontested candidate.
However, could Vance, known for his autobiography "Hillbilly Elegy," pose a threat to Germany and Europe? "No panic," says Ischinger: "J.D. Vance will not conduct American foreign policy." But he fits well into the Trump camp. Trump's decision for Vance was shrewd and long-term visionary.
Concerns in NATO
Ischinger also expresses concerns about the NATO alliance. "The relationship between the US and Europe is at a low point," he says. "Trump's America First policy is a clear departure from the transatlantic partnership. If Trump is re-elected, we can expect more of the same. The Europeans must prepare for this and find ways to deal with it." Ischinger sees a possible solution in closer cooperation between Europe and China. "The US is turning its back on Europe, and China is offering cooperation. Europe must not be naive, but it must also recognize the opportunities," he advises.
Expert in terrorism and political scientist Peter Neumann is not completely satisfied with this analysis. After his election in 2016, Trump appointed Mike Pence as his vice president, who was reportedly in favor of NATO and the defense of Europe. "But we know that's not the case with J.D. Vance." The decision for Vance means that Trump no longer supports this line. "We need to reflect: NATO is the valid promise of the US to defend Europe." This promise can be undermined by leaving the alliance or by giving five or six interviews, "in which one says, we no longer believe in it, we no longer defend Estonia." And then the validity of this promise is in question. "And I believe Vance is absolutely capable of doing that."
CDU politician Ruprecht Polenz points to a point often overlooked: Trump is only four years younger than Biden. He says, "It doesn't matter what the NATO members think about the American president, but it matters what Putin thinks. And if Putin feels that the Americans no longer take their guarantee seriously, he could see himself challenged and test it. That makes the situation so dangerous."
"We have no alternative"
During his campaign, Trump promised to end the war in Ukraine as president right away. Meanwhile, his vice president, J.D. Vance, has threatened to end Ukraine aid. A complicated starting position. "But we have to work with this America," says political scientist Fix. "The reason is our own mistake. We have no geopolitical alternative and no security policy alternative. We have to work with the US because we have not been able to ensure our own security and because it will take us ten to fifteen years to even manage a medium-sized conflict in Europe."
Therefore, Bundeskanzler Olaf Scholz must act, demands Ischinger. If Trump is elected on November 5, he must seek a conversation with Trump immediately, before his inauguration. "The right method is not for Europe to collectively mourn, because Trump and Vance are just waiting for that," says Ischinger. "We have to approach Trump. And we have to have a serious discussion with each other."
In the context of the United States Presidency Election 2024, political analysts are discussing the potential impacts of a Joe Biden withdrawal. Liana Fix suggestes that Biden's COVID-19 illness and the contrast between his health and Donald Trump's vitality could lead to a withdrawal. If this happens, the race would become more competitive, with Kamala Harris or another Democratic candidate potentially challenging Trump.
Speaking of Trump, Wolfgang Ischinger has expressed concerns about the Republican Party convention, particularly after the assassination attempt on Trump. Despite the Republican's rally behind Trump following the incident, Ischinger urges prayers for a successful and good outcome of the campaign. He also raises concerns about Trump's potential election leading to further strains in the relationship between the United States and NATO allies.
