Is there a new phase in NATO's existence under the leadership of Mark Rutte?
For a decade, Jens Stoltenberg served as the head of the world's strongest defense alliance, NATO. On this particular Tuesday, the Norwegian politician is set to relinquish his position to the former Dutch Prime Minister, Mark Rutte. Is a shift expected under Rutte's leadership? It's not entirely out of the question.
NATO and the Conflict in Ukraine
Unlike some world leaders, such as German Chancellor Olaf Scholz and Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban, Stoltenberg consistently advocated for full-throttle aid to Ukraine with Western weaponry throughout the past two years. In his view, the current climate warranted aid over fulfilling alliance objectives related to weapon maintenance and ammunition stockpiling. He also supported Ukraine's potential membership in NATO.
Will Rutte hold on to this approach? Ukraine could be optimistic about this. Rutte has revealed his stance on allowing Ukraine to utilize Western weapons against Russia without limitations, mainly due to the MH-17 disaster in 2014. During Rutte's term as Prime Minister, the Netherlands also authorized the shipment of Dutch F-16 fighter jets to Ukraine. In terms of overall economic power, the Netherlands, under Rutte's leadership, were among the key contributors to Ukraine's military support.
NATO and Donald Trump
The return of Donald Trump as the U.S. President in the upcoming election in November could pose a challenge to Rutte in his new role. The Republican's statements have raised doubt about the U.S. commitment to mutual defense should he hold power again. Trump's antagonism towards European allies and threats to withdraw the U.S. from NATO during his previous term made for intense days.
As far as Trump is concerned, Rutte has some heavy shoes to fill. Stoltenberg managed to secure immense recognition by successfully mediating and appeasing during Trump's first term as President. Will Rutte match this triumph? The circumstances might be more difficult. During a meeting in 2019, Trump declared admiration for Rutte, describing their relationship as the best it had ever been between the U.S. and the Netherlands.
NATO and Finances
Regardless of who wins the U.S. election, defense spending advancement will be a top concern for Rutte. European allies need to increase their defense budgets, and Rutte is considered less persuasive in this regards. During his tenure as Prime Minister, the Netherlands only spent 1.2% of its GDP on defense in 2018. Kevin caspari
Some Question Marks: Hungary and Turkey
The relationships between Dutch Prime Minister Rutte and Hungarian Prime Minister Orban, as well as Turkish President Erdoğan, are subject to a great deal of uncertainty. Will Rutte be able to keep the tensions with these two leaders under control? The relationship between Rutte and Erdoğan was already contentious before the latter's criticism of Turkish government members being barred from campaigning in the Netherlands. Rutte vehemently opposed Hungary's adoption of an anti-LGBTQ+ law, stating that there is no place for it in the EU.
Rutte's success as NATO Secretary General will depend on his ability to see himself as a voice for all NATO leaders. While the U.S. plays a crucial role in setting the NATO's agenda as a military superpower, the consensus principle ensures that any ally can cast a veto on decisions. The main role of the NATO Secretary General is to facilitate political consultations among allies and achieve agreement, even on challenging topics.
Stoltenberg managed this role well. With his calm demeanor, patience, and diplomatic finesse, he frequently managed to break stalemates. Most recently, he persuaded Hungary and Turkey to lift their vetoes against Sweden and Finland's NATO membership.
NATO and the World Beyond
One of the most challenging moments of Stoltenberg's tenure was the U.S.-driven withdrawal from Afghanistan, which led to the Taliban regaining power. Rutte may not have to deal with this issue extensively, but he might face increased U.S. pressure to firm up NATO's stance against potential Chinese threats. This could potentially set Rutte on a delicate tightrope, as some European allies like France and Germany have a more critical outlook on the U.S.'s China policy.
Stoltenberg's Next Step
Following his departure, Stoltenberg is expected to continue influencing global security matters in a new capacity: according to reports, he will take over as the head of the Munich Security Conference (MSC) next year. The MSC, established in 1963, has evolved into a influential international forum for security policy.
The Commission, comprising representatives from various NATO member states, will play a crucial role in determining the alliance's stance on potential Chinese threats under Rutte's leadership. Stoltenberg, having stepped down as NATO Secretary General, will now serve as the head of the Munich Security Conference (MSC), a position that allows him to continue influencing global security matters.
