Ukraine-War - Is the way clear for negotiations with Russia?
After nearly three years of war, a possible way to a negotiated solution is emerging. "Zelenskyy will be forced to hold a referendum. I don't believe he can make such painful and important agreements without the legitimacy of the people alone", Kiev Mayor Vitali Klitschko told the Italian "Corriere della Sera". President Volodymyr Zelenskyy himself had brought up the idea of a referendum in the first weeks of the war. Later, he signed a decree excluding negotiations with Russian President Vladimir Putin. Now, however, Zelenskyy has withdrawn from this position. "We will speak with those who decide everything in Russia", he let it be known in an interview with the BBC.
This change in rhetoric takes place against the background of deteriorating military conditions: After massive rocket attacks on infrastructure, the heating and electricity supply of the country is threatened in the next winter. At the front, especially in Donbas, the Ukrainians are losing territory to the attacking Russians every day.
Questions about territorial concessions from Ukraine
This has consequences for the population's mood. In a survey from the end of June, 44 percent were in favor of accepting peace talks, 35 percent were against. The Ukrainians find it difficult to accept territorial concessions: Only about ten percent are in favor of fixing the current front line, a quarter would return to the situation before the invasion. Half hold a return to the 1991 borders, that is, including Donbas and Crimea, to be indispensable. Zelenskyy himself no longer names that as a condition for negotiations with Russia in recent interviews.
Kiev political scientist Volodymyr Fesenko reminds us in a conversation with the stern that a fundamental condition for a successful negotiated solution "military parity" at the front is required: "Putin is only forced to make a compromise by the realization that he cannot win the war against Ukraine."
To military parity belongs also a strengthening of the missile defense: At the end of July, Germany delivered the third Patriot system. Zelenskyy welcomed it as "a win for Ukraine".
- The negotiations with Russia, which President Zelenskyy had initially opposed, are back on the table, as he stated in a BBC interview.
- The Ukrainian population is divided on the issue of territorial concessions, with only 10% supporting a fixed front line and half advocating for a return to the 1991 borders.
- The deliverance of the third Patriot missile defense system by Germany at the end of July could contribute to achieving military parity, a key condition for a compromising move by Russia, according to Kiev political scientist Volodymyr Fesenko.
- Amidst the deteriorating military conditions, with Ukraine losing territory in Donbas and the threat of a heating and electricity supply crisis during the winter due to rocket attacks, the idea of a referendum in Ukraine is gaining traction, as suggested by Kiev Mayor Vitali Klitschko.
