- Is the alliance between the CDU and the BSW characterized by hues of deep crimson and black?
Ex-Communist Advocates Group and CDU Posse - A Fit?There's a lot of buzz surrounding the potential intersections between the CDU and Sahra Wagenknecht-led Alliance Sahra Wagenknecht (ASW). Yet, it seems like everyone's lips are sealed on the matter. Even CDU leader Friedrich Merz confesses, "I have a hunch or feeling about the person Sahra Wagenknecht, but I can't judge who else has joined this camp."
Merz refers to the ASW as "some sort of secret box or dangerous box," due to its creator, Wagenknecht, who was once a member of the SED and later took on radical leftist views in the Left Party. Merz previously called Wagenknecht a "right-wing extremist on some matters, left-wing extremist on others." After pressure from eastern election campaigners, he made the possibility of collaboration a matter for the states.
Following the state elections in Saxony and Thuringia, it seems that the Union can hardly avoid the ASW. Without this newcomer, it may be challenging to find democratic majorities beyond the AfD.
CDU: ASW Not Our Ideal Companion"She's not a companion we'd welcome," says Thorsten Frei, the Union's parliamentary business manager and a Merz ally. This likely applies to the ASW as well. However, ASW founder Wagenknecht, who has distanced herself from her communist past and represents a blend of right and left views with her ASW, has something to say about overlaps with the Union.
She mentions topics like education, school protection, and internal security. "There might be some overlaps," says Wagenknecht, who achieved double-digit results with the ASW in both states. "We'll see, we need to discuss it."
Stumbling Block: Foreign PolicyAlthough foreign policy isn't determined at the state level, Wagenknecht has put forward a condition that the Union might find hard to accept: state governments involving the ASW should advocate for more diplomatic solutions in the Ukraine war and not just focus on arms deliveries. They should also oppose the stationing of US medium-range missiles in Germany. "It's about the state government adopting a position," says Wagenknecht. The respective minister-president would also have to represent this position externally.
Frei firmly opposes linking state coalitions with foreign policy issues: "The Union can't do that." Merz wants to maintain support for Ukraine and missile stationing. Saxony's Minister-President Michael Kretschmer might have less trouble with this: he believes a different stance on arms deliveries to Ukraine should be possible.
Shared Ground: EducationIn areas where decisions are actually made at the state level, the CDU and ASW might find common ground. In education policy, the CDU in Thuringia aims to ensure "the best education is finally consistently provided." They want to attract more teachers, enhance teacher training, and integrate lateral entrants better.
The ASW has no issue with this. According to the ASW's principles, there are even greater ambitions: "The German education system, with its 16 distinct curricula, large classes, and early selection, denies educational and life opportunities for children from less privileged families." However, the CDU is unlikely to push for a total overhaul of the federal education system.
Despite reservations, there are also overlaps with the Alternative for Germany (AfD): "It appears that the AfD leans towards reasonable immigration policies." Sahra Wagenknecht has long advocated for strict migration limits and reducing social benefits for rejected asylum seekers - like the Union. This is only partly a state issue, but it should not cause issues for coalitions.
The AfD also acknowledges: "We also see overlaps in social policy." In the CDU, this includes topics like opposing cannabis legalization or agreements in family policy.
Common ground: Climate protection, economy, and social policy
Both sides are quite similar on climate protection, agreeing that it's important in principle but not a top priority at the moment. Wagenknecht advocates for continued use of combustion engines and opposes the 120 km/h speed limit on highways, which the CDU supports. A study by the CDU-affiliated Konrad Adenauer Foundation (KAS) from June shows that AfD voters' views on climate protection and economic growth are close to those of CDU/CSU voters.
The KAS study also shows proximity between Union voters and AfD on social policy. On a scale of 0 to 10, the Union leans more towards "lower taxes and contributions, fewer social welfare benefits" than the AfD. Wagenknecht wants better pension benefits, even at the cost of higher contributions, which the CDU opposes. However, this is not a state issue.
Moving toward the Left party?
The CDU has no incompatibility resolution regarding the AfD, unlike the Left party, from which Wagenknecht's faction split in October 20XX. A 2018 CDU party congress resolution states: "The CDU Germany rejects coalitions and similar forms of cooperation with The Left party as well as with the Alternative for Germany."
Merz now reiterates: "The resolution stands. And dealing with it will then also be the responsibility of the two state associations in Saxony and in Thuringia."
In Thuringia, a non-AfD coalition government might require some kind of backing from The Left. Consequently, Ulrike Grote-Röthig, the leader of The Left in Thuringia, is encouraging the Union to consider partnership. However, stern backlash from prominent associations in western states is anticipated within the CDU's leadership.
There's also a lot of hesitancy within the party about associating with AfD. The "can crimson-deep blend with black?" query continues to stir up a lot of chaos for Merz, as he ponders the Union's "C-question."
The CDU leader Friedrich Merz refers to the Alliance Sahra Wagenknecht as a "secret box" due to Wagenknecht's communist past, but the ASW has managed to gain significant results in the state elections in Saxony and Thuringia. Sahra Wagenknecht, the founder of the ASW, has mentioned topics like education, school protection, and internal security as potential areas of overlap with the CDU.
