Is Olaf Scholz still the right man for the job?

Olaf Scholz has been Chancellor for two years to the day this Friday and the situation is disastrous, and not just for the coalition of the two parties. The chancellor's reputation is also sinking. People are increasingly blaming the government's crisis on its leader. He must ask himself why he wants to continue.

On Friday, the SPD will hold a federal party conference in Berlin and will once again congratulate itself on its government leadership. It is only right that a party should come together on the second anniversary of coming to power. Especially when its victory in the 2021 federal election was long considered impossible and a repeat four years later seems highly unlikely. "It's great, we're in government! Maybe not as good as expected, but certainly better than any other party in consideration," will therefore be the expected message from party leaders Saskia Esken and Lars Klingbeil, who are running for re-election. They will assure us that the second half of the government will be much better and that the SPD will sharpen its profile, which is why the 2025 Bundestag election is far from lost. On the one hand, that is true. On the other hand, it remains to be seen whether the SPD and Chancellor Olaf Scholz have two more years left.

Scholz and his coalition are threatened with a premature end due to the budget crisis. Even if the coalition manages to put together a budget for 2024 in the new year, it will have to make do with less money from now on. The internal centrifugal forces will not subside and the coalition will not be saved by passing a budget. Bitter for Scholz: two years after he was sworn in, hardly anyone would mourn his chancellorship. For a long time, the strategists in the Willy Brandt House and the Chancellery were able to reassure themselves that the Chancellor's poll ratings were far better than those of the SPD. In other words, people would consider who they wanted as head of government at the next general election, as they did in 2021, and then vote for their party.

The chancellor bonus is gone

However, Scholz's personal approval ratings have been in free fall for months, and not just in the trend barometer that Forsa regularly conducts for RTL and ntv. In a hypothetical direct election of the Federal Chancellor, Scholz was recently eight points behind CDU leader Friedrich Merz with 16% and two points behind his deputy Robert Habeck of the Greens. If only Scholz and Merz were to run, Scholz would be four points ahead of Merz with 36 percent - but only because Green supporters strongly oppose Merz.

Views of Scholz as a person are also disastrous: in May 2022, 61% of respondents still considered him competent, compared to 30% today. Of the 56% who considered him trustworthy, only 32% remain. His likeability rating fell from 57% to 41%. The few 32 percent who still rated Scholz as a strong leader one and a half years ago have fallen to 10 percent. The chancellor's bonus, a pillar of every re-election for predecessor Angela Merkel, is gone. And that with a main opponent, Friedrich Merz, who is not overly popular either with the general public or with CDU and CSU supporters.

Key promise unfulfilled

Two other factors cast doubt on Scholz's possible re-election. Firstly, the war in Ukraine is likely to still be raging whenever the next Bundestag is elected. The tide is even threatening to turn in Russia's favor. Scholz's promise that Russia's war must not have been worth it for Putin is therefore very shaky. At least he can claim that there has been no direct confrontation between NATO and Russia so far. Secondly, Germany's shrinking economic output this year will probably only grow slightly in the coming year. Meanwhile, the German government lacks the means to counteract this. The budget, which is also being stretched to the limit by all kinds of clientele politics, offers hardly any room for maneuver and circumventing the debt brake has become almost impossible. What remains is the hope of a significant surge in demand from China to boost German exports. However, Berlin has even less influence on this than on the course of the war in Ukraine.

Scholz's personal low in the polls is therefore more than just the result of a good year and a half of constant bickering in his traffic light coalition. These figures are a symptom of a head of government who has found himself and his coalition at an impasse. And who does not know how to cover up this strategic disaster with his personal appearance. However, only very few of his voters opted for Scholz because of his charm or his inspiring speeches. In comparison to the candidates for chancellor Annalena Baerbock and Armin Laschet, the Hamburg native, who is brittle in his demeanor, was most likely to radiate solidity, a promise of wisdom, experience and reliability.

This promise has remained unfulfilled because after two years of Olaf Scholz, Germany is facing immense problems on the one hand, but lacks the strength to solve them on the other - politically, because the coalition does not fit together on fundamental issues, and financially, because it has hardly any room for investment in the future. If only Scholz were the aforementioned "plumber", one would like to call out to Friedrich Merz. After all, SPD voters had expected an expert craftsman of power to hold the store together. But the need for repairs has only continued to grow, while the Chancellor's most important tool has fallen on his feet: taking on debt. Ouch!

The fact that the Chancellor has not even apologized for bringing so much uncertainty to the country with the shadow budgets he devised is not incidental. So much has gone wrong in the government, but Scholz has not revealed any error or personal responsibility for any crisis situations.

Almost always behind the situation

After all, it must have become clear to Scholz and his entourage last summer that things could not continue as before. A program was born that does not necessarily cost much, but could bring a lot - the promise of a functioning state. Regardless of whether it's ailing infrastructure, lengthy administrative procedures, an excessive administrative burden for the economy or weak enforcement of the right of residence: the idea behind the Germany Pact is as simple as it is good. After all, people naturally want to see their tax money spent wisely and that laws apply to everyone - including the right of residence. It would be a recession program for the AfD.

Some things have been tackled since then, and the packages of measures to reduce bureaucracy in particular are seen as promising. However, implementation will take a long time. Similar to the effect of the Hartz reforms, a result that is visible to all could take years, which the traffic light may no longer have. At the same time, the budget crisis is having an impact on infrastructure projects, particularly for the railroads. And when it comes to dealing with refugees, Scholz has allowed himself to be driven by Merz into a competition of announcements, which on the one hand has given rise to completely unrealistic expectations of a drop in immigration figures and on the other hand has offended parts of his own party. At the party conference this weekend, the new generation of party members will vent their displeasure at the Chancellor's perceived anti-asylum statements.

In any case, the liberating blow hoped for in the summer has not been achieved. Scholz has once again fallen behind the times. As was the case with the dispute over the heating law, when he allowed the conflict between the Greens and the FDP to escalate for weeks. Or with the energy price brakes, when the coalition remained inactive throughout the summer of 2022, only to have a hastily created commission cobble together something like a solution. Or with the coronavirus vaccination requirement he advocated, which first divided the country and then crashed and burned. And last but not least, the Ukraine aid: When Kiev was finally able to launch its spring offensive in the summer, the Russian occupiers had long since dug themselves in and laid an unprecedented mine belt through the country, while Ukraine still did not have enough weapons and ammunition.

Just getting by is no longer enough

In these two years, the chancellor's office too rarely provided any impetus, and when it did, it too often went wrong. It may speak for Scholz's character that he never dared to attempt to lead his complicated governing coalition from the front for all to see. But because he also lacks a sense of symbolism in other respects, the image has emerged of a chancellor who is weak in leadership and of whom hardly anyone knows where he actually wants to go since he realized his childhood dream of being chancellor. In times of full coffers, it was enough just to administer the country. But after years of the coronavirus crisis, the war in Ukraine, fears of economic decline, a real loss of income and an uncertain future due to climate change and an ageing population, the country may need a different approach from its head of government - someone who exudes confidence beyond the facts and knows how to communicate his policies.

That may be a lot to ask in these complicated times. And there is no one in sight who could certainly meet these requirements. But this supposed lack of alternatives should not lull Scholz into a sense of self-assurance. Two more years of Olaf Scholz as Federal Chancellor require better justification. Too many people have already turned their backs on politics altogether and are equally refraining from informing themselves and exercising their right to vote. And too many other people have long since turned to the eternal promises of salvation of the AfD. It would be essential for the head of government to reflect the seriousness of the situation - in the country and in the coalition - to the outside world. These days, Olaf Scholz must not only think about how he can save his term of office, but above all: to what end?