Is autumn set to arrive this weekend, or will the warmth persist?
As of now, weather models are showing some inconsistency in their predictions. Initially, it appeared that starting from Thursday, we might witness a significant drop in temperature, allowing us to enjoy early autumn by the weekend. However, a recent evaluation of the weather situation has led to a different conclusion.
Why the change?
There's an issue with a potential cold air drop over Scotland at the moment. This is a high-altitude low-pressure system that significantly impacts our temperature patterns and future trajectory.
What does this mean?
The movement of the high-pressure system in the coming days will determine whether we'll experience early autumn by the weekend or continue to bask in the warm to hot late summer temperatures. This development is certainly intriguing and potentially impactful, given the intense heat stress we're currently enduring. A cooling would undeniably be welcomed by many, and it would also alleviate other concerns that are more relevant in warm weather.
What are these concerns?
The consequences of the ongoing drought in the east are noteworthy. By mid-week, the highest forest fire danger level 5 will be reached in certain eastern areas, such as those beyond the Elbe. Even a small spark or an open fire can cause significant damage. Conversely, the rest of the country will continue to be affected by a humid to hot air mass mix, with some regions experiencing heavy rainfall, as shown on Monday when certain thunderstorms brought between 20 to 40 liters of rain per square meter, resulting in flooding.
How will the storms unfold?
The thunderstorms will initially subside in the night from Tuesday to Wednesday, only to be replaced by stronger thunderstorms from the southwest later on. Temperatures will remain warm to tropical, with overnight lows ranging between 13 and 21 degrees Celsius.
And on Wednesday?
The thunderstorms will expand further, reaching a line between the Alps - Ore Mountains and Schleswig-Holstein by the afternoon and evening. There's a potential risk of severe weather in these areas due to heavy rain, hail, and strong winds. Rainfall in these areas could reach up to 40 to 80 liters per square meter within a short period, equivalent to a whole month's rainfall in some places. Meanwhile, the east will remain dry and extremely hot.
What temperatures can we anticipate?
After initial temperatures around 30 degrees at the beginning of the week, the heat center will shift towards the east on Wednesday and Thursday. The peak will be on Wednesday, with local temperatures potentially reaching up to 35 degrees.
Are these record temperatures?
While it's not likely that the all-time record (36.5 degrees, recorded in September 1911 at the Jena Observatory) will be broken, it's still an exceptional event with the potential to set individual station records. This puts us within the range of the highest September temperatures in 70 years.
What do the forecasts suggest afterwards?
The thunderstorms are expected to migrate towards the southwest on Thursday and Friday. The rest of the country will then enjoy plenty of sunshine and predominantly dry summer weather with comfortable temperatures of around 24 degrees in the west and up to 32 degrees in the east.
What about the weekend?
The situation is highly uncertain. Early autumn scenarios aren't completely out of the question yet. Most forecasts, however, favor summer-like scenarios. If that happens, we're looking at pleasant to sunny weather, with only isolated thunderstorms - preferably in the west. Temperatures will range between 24 to 31 degrees.
The uncertainty in the weather predictions is largely due to the potential cold air drop over Scotland. This high-altitude low-pressure system could significantly impact our temperature patterns and decide whether we experience early autumn or continue with warm summer temperatures over the weekend.
Given the ongoing drought in the east, even a small spark or open fire could cause significant damage as the highest forest fire danger level 5 will be reached by mid-week in certain eastern areas.
