Investigating the authenticity: Trump's misleading use of a chart to distort border statistics
The diagram – the one Trump happened to glance at when an assailant attempted to eliminate him at a political rally in July – is a bar chart illustrating the monthly frequency of official interactions with migrants at the southern border. It includes a large, crimson arrow pointing to a month displaying a noticeably small bar. And it's marked in red text beside that arrow: “TRUMP LEVES OFFICE. LOWEST ILLEGAL IMMIGRATION IN RECORDED HISTORY!”
Following that month, the bars increase in size, hinting at an unexpected surge in illegal immigration from a record-breaking low, which was allegedly achieved during Trump's final week in office. And on several occasions, such as most recently in his conversation with billionaire backer Elon Musk, Trump has maintained that the chart demonstrates that the record-breaking low was achieved during his last days in office.
“Observe the arrow at the bottom, the intense red arrow at the bottom, that’s the lowest point. That was the moment I departed office. Examine what transpired after I departed. Consider that,” Trump said at a rally earlier this month in Montana.
“If you look at the arrow at the bottom, that’s the lowest level, the one at the bottom, the bold red arrow – that’s the lowest level of illegal immigrants to ever infiltrate our nation in recorded history, right there, right there. And that was my last week in office. Then you see what occurred afterwards,” Trump said in his speech at the Republican National Convention in July.
However, this assertion is false.
Fact Check: Trump’s statements are unfounded. Illegal immigration was not at its lowest point in history during Trump’s final week in office in January 2021 – and contrary to what the arrow indicates on the chart, it actually points to April 2020, when Trump still had over eight months left in his term and global migration was almost entirely halted due to the onset of the Covid-19 pandemic. After hitting a roughly three-year low (not an all-time low) in April 2020, migration numbers at the southern border increased every month thereafter through the end of Trump’s term.
In other words, the number of migrant encounters by Border Patrol agents in between ports of entry at the southern border – a figure often used as a proxy for unauthorized border crossings – had been increasing for around seven-eighths of a year when Biden and Harris took office from Trump.
The numbers did spike under Biden and Harris, but this increase represented an intensification, not a reversal, of the upward trend near the end of the Trump era.
The Data Shows
The number of migrant encounters by Border Patrol agents in between ports of entry at the southern border fell to 16,182 in April 2020, the month following the Covid-19 pandemic's announcement. This was the lowest monthly figure in approximately three years, not in US history; the monthly figure was lower in four separate months earlier in Trump’s term, from March through June 2017, including a record-breaking low of 11,127 in April 2017. (The number of migrant encounters at the southern border was also considerably lower in the early 1960s, but distant historical comparisons can be complex due to substantial differences in laws, policies, and staffing levels.)
Then, after April 2020, Border Patrol migrant encounters at the southern border risen in each of Trump’s remaining eight full months in office – plus a ninth month, January 2021, in which he was president for most of the month.
The sizes of the bars on Trump's chart appear to be relatively accurate, though it's difficult to ascertain if they're entirely precise. However, the red arrow showing when Trump left office is clearly in the wrong place.
Trump's false claim that the red arrow points to when he left office has been fact-checked numerous times, including by FactCheck.org following his use of the chart at a rally in Wisconsin in April. But Trump has never ceased making this false claim; in his speech at the Republican National Convention in July, he delivered it as the chart was displayed on multiple screens besides and above him.
Asked why Trump continues to make this false claim, campaign spokesperson Karoline Leavitt did not respond directly on Monday. Instead, she attributed a variety of Trump border policies for the low level of illegal immigration in 2020.
Other Misleading Claims
As PolitiFact reported in July, Trump's chart seems to be derived from a chart from Republican Sen. Ron Johnson of Wisconsin. Johnson informed Fox News in July that he displayed the chart to Trump on a plane trip to a rally in Wisconsin in April, handed it to Trump's staff following Trump's approval, and then “they made a few alterations to the graphics.”
However, the alterations introduced on Trump's chart include significant inaccuracies.
Johnson's chart does not include the red arrow pointing to April 2020 or the red text incorrectly claiming that the arrow points to when Trump left office. Johnson's chart also does not include other false or unsupported statements present on Trump's chart.
For example, text at the top of Trump's chart, which Johnson's chart does not include, claims that “MANY” of the migrants who have arrived under Biden are “FROM PRISONS AND MENTAL INSTITUTIONS,” a frequent Trump claim that he has never substantiated and that experts say is baseless. Text added to the top of Trump's chart also claims that the chart shows “ILLEGAL IMMIGRATION” numbers despite the text at the top of Johnson’s version showing that his chart includes migrants who arrived at legal ports of entry and were subsequently turned away.
Johnson's workspace remained silent upon CNN's request for feedback on a Monday. Leavitt neglected to reply when confronted about the possibility of Trump's team introducing the inaccuracies into the chart.
Despite Trump's repeated claims during rallies and speeches, the red arrow on his bar chart, which he claims indicates the lowest point of illegal immigration during his final week in office, actually points to April 2020, a time when Trump still had over eight months left in his term and global migration was heavily impacted by the onset of the Covid-19 pandemic.
This misleading use of the chart persists, even after fact-checking from organizations like FactCheck.org and PolitiFact, which have pointed out the inaccuracy of the arrow's placement.
