International voters, potentially holding significant sway for the Democrats, face legal challenges instigated by the Republican Party in pivotal election states
New legal battles surface, as overseas votes from American expats significantly favor Democrats, potentially tipping the scales in crucial elections, such as Vice President Kamala Harris' victory.
Besides the lawsuits instigated by Republicans in Pennsylvania, North Carolina, and Michigan, former President Trump hypothesizes without proof that suspicious activities may occur in the overseas vote, simultaneously promising lower taxes to foreign American voters.
Approximately 6.5 million eligible American voters reside, serve, and study abroad, with about 1.6 million of them in battleground states, and an even larger number in tight congressional districts. These votes could potentially swing the election outcomes: The 2020 election was decided by a mere 44,000 votes across four states.
Over 1.2 million overseas ballots were dispatched in 2020, and almost 890,000 of them were ultimately counted, as per a report by the US Election Assistance Commission.
Democrats liken the new GOP legal challenges to assaults on the voting rights of service personnel risking their lives for the country and a broader civilian expatriate community. However, the Republican lawsuits specifically target this latter group. Election officials believe that last-minute alterations to the voting process with ballots already in circulation would disenfranchise voters and pave the way for casting false doubts on the election results.
Lawyers for Michigan's Secretary of State, Jocelyn Benson, accused Republicans of attempting "to harass the Secretary and cast doubt on the election's integrity", in a court filing.
In Pennsylvania, GOP congressmen petition the court to disregard all overseas ballots, including military ballots, and subject them to further verification. Similarly, the Republican National Committee, responsible for the lawsuits in Michigan and North Carolina, requested the separation and scrutiny of certain overseas ballots in those states, hinting at potential post-election disputes to dismiss these ballots if vote margins are narrow.
The Republicans must surmount procedural obstacles raised in their lawsuits. A potential court ruling to set aside overseas ballots for review and counting later, after disputes have been settled, may lend an initial Election Night advantage to Trump, only for it to be eroded once these ballots are included in the tallies. Trump's major triumph in overturning the 2020 election resting on the assertion that ballot counting should cease after Election Day, before election officials had processed the significant Democratic-leaning mail-in vote.
Republican officials vow to seek clarification from the courts regarding legal disagreements concerning these overseas ballots handling, though it remains unclear how many ballots would be discarded if they prevail in their cases.
An RNC official told CNN, "Regardless of the impact, we aim to ensure every legitimate vote is accurately counted. Counting illegitimate votes dilutes this and cancels it out."
A hearing in the Michigan case is set for Detroit on Thursday, while a federal judge will listen to arguments on the Pennsylvania lawsuit in Harrisburg on Friday. Hearings for the North Carolina lawsuit are scheduled for next week.
Less than half of overseas voters are military
The mechanism for distant citizens to cast ballots following federal law, the Uniformed and Overseas Citizens Absentee Voting Act (UOCAVA), has received bipartisan support since its inception nearly four decades ago.
While UOCAVA is primarily associated with military voters, who are often perceived as right-leaning, this demographic is no longer as conservative as was once thought. The significant shift lies in the growing proclivity of civilians living abroad towards the Democratic vote, outnumbering the military population in this regard.
During the 2020 election, military voters comprised only 42.3% of those registered under UOCAVA, according to an EAC report.
In 2020, Michigan sent overseas only 25% of its ballots to military members, as reported, and this proportion held true for Pennsylvania and North Carolina, where military personnel made up a minority of the overseas voters receiving ballots in 2020.
“Interestingly, there are more non-military overseas voters than military voters,” observed Michael McDonald, a University of Florida political science professor. Research by McDonald in Maine and Colorado voters notes a sizable leftward lean in the UOCAVA vote in these states.
Democrats Abroad, which includes thousands of American expatriates worldwide, has intensified outreach activities such as phone banking, texting, and emailing since January, encouraging members to secure ballots and providing instructions on obtaining them.
“We represent millions of potential voters with the power to impact election outcomes,” stated Martha McDevitt-Pugh, International Chair of Democrats Abroad.
This Democratic initiative sparked Republican interest, leading to litigation challenging the legality of select overseas ballots. In lawsuits filed in North Carolina and Michigan, the Republican National Committee focuses on questioning state laws that expanded UOCAVA's scope by allowing US citizens abroad who never resided in those states to vote if their parents or legal guardians had resided there before leaving the country (Michigan additionally includes this connection for spouses of former Michigan state residents).
They contend these laws violate provisions in the states' constitutions requiring residency to vote.
However, Democrats and state authorities argue that the North Carolina and Michigan constitutions grant those state legislatures the ability to extend voter eligibility past individuals who have resided in those states for a specific duration of time.
In Michigan, the Republicans are pushing for modifications in guidance from Benson, a frequent target of GOP lawsuits, urging local officials to reject overseas ballots from individuals known as "never residents."
Her office argues that it's impractical to differentiate between overseas ballots from individuals who have never lived in those states. Even if it were possible, modifying procedures at this stage would be unfeasible, a similar stance taken by North Carolina election officials being sued by the RNC.
"The appropriate time to challenge voter eligibility rules is prior to an election, not after votes have already been cast," Patrick Gannon, a spokesperson for the North Carolina Board of Elections told CNN, highlighting that the relevant law was enacted more than 13 years ago.
In response to the timing of the lawsuits, filed following the dispatch of overseas ballots, a second RNC official admitted that a significant portion of their election integrity litigation is being decided in the weeks preceding Election Day.
"Regardless of the theoretical advantage of filing earlier, we will still challenge election laws in court if we perceive them to be violated, regardless of the situation," the official stated, adding that election cases were also being decided during this period prior to the 2022 midterms.
GOP representatives filing lawsuits against their own state
In the Pennsylvania case, the controversy revolves around the verification process for overseas ballots.
Republican members of the US House have filed lawsuits in federal court over the methodology used by Pennsylvania election officials to process applications from overseas citizens, and are seeking a court order to separate those ballots for additional verification.
The congressional plaintiffs, who had previously rejected the 2020 election state certifications favoring Joe Biden, despite a lack of proof of fraud, are being opposed by Democrats who argue that the Republican lawmakers' request could disenfranchise "tens of thousands" of overseas voters, including those in the military.
Rep. Pat Ryan, running for reelection in upstate New York, led a group of Democratic veteran colleagues in sending a letter to Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin this week, voicing concerns that military personnel were at risk of having their votes undermined.
"I never thought they could be more disrespectful towards veterans than Trump has been, yet somehow they've managed to surpass themselves in disrespecting and trying to disenfranchise veterans and military families," Ryan told CNN, labeling the moves "shocking" and "disgraceful."
Ryan, who had mailed his vote from Iraq in 2008 near the end of his 15-month second combat zone deployment, described the procedures as a "well-established process that occurs frequently and has been happening for many decades."
He pointed out that every unit had a voting assistance officer and that everyone's identity was verified numerous times before they filled out their ballots.
If election denialism is the objective, Ryan emphasized, "enlisting active-duty troops in such traitorous behavior is unthinkable."
"These individuals are risking their lives for our nation. They deserve to know now that their vote will be protected and counted," he said.
The lawyers representing the Republicans in the lawsuit did not respond to CNN's inquiry, but in their complaint, they contend that Pennsylvania has implemented an "illegal election structure that creates vulnerabilities and the opportunity for ineligible ballots to dilute valid ballots from military service members."
Those embroiled in the RNC cases in Michigan and North Carolina emphasized that these legal challenges were not aimed at military ballots, but rather at civilians who had never resided in those states.
"By permitting overseas voters who have never lived in Michigan or North Carolina to vote there, they are violating the state constitutions and endangering the valid votes of eligible voters," Claire Zunk, the RNC's election integrity communications director, stated in a statement. "Our lawsuit does not in any way affect the military's right to vote, which is protected by federal law under UOCAVA. We are fighting to ensure that military votes and overseas citizens' votes are counted accurately, and not canceled by ineligible votes."
McDevitt-Pugh, the Democrats Abroad chair, expressed that, given laws affecting taxation, Social Security, and healthcare for American expatriates, "the ability to vote and have a voice is really important to us."
She admitted that she was fearful that even the challenges being raised might decrease the number of people who returned their ballots.
"These challenges are intended to pave the way for challenging the election later, they're meant to intimidate voters," she told CNN.
In light of the ongoing controversies, Republicans have raised concerns about the overseas vote, with former President Trump suggesting potential suspicious activities. This comes as Democrats argue that GOP legal challenges are assaults on the voting rights of expatriates and service personnel abroad.
Despite bipartisan support for the Uniformed and Overseas Citizens Absentee Voting Act (UOCAVA), the Republican National Committee is challenging state laws in North Carolina and Michigan that allow US citizens abroad, who never resided in those states, to vote if their parents or legal guardians had resided there prior to leaving the country. This controversy has sparked concerns among Democrats and military personnel alike, who fear that the litigation could disenfranchise a significant number of overseas voters, including those serving in the military.
