- Intensifying Russian Aggression: Putin's Tactics Growing Increasingly Brutal
Since Winter 2022/2023, Russia has deliberately aimed at disrupting Ukraine's energy supply. By Spring 2024, the attacks reached a new level of precision. Russian long-range weapons – cruise missiles and rockets – were functioning more accurately than earlier. The attacks were better strategized. At this point, Russia began systematically damaging power stations.
The recent attacks have reached an all-time high. On August 25-26 alone, Russia launched over 200 cruise missiles, rockets, and drones. Kyiv claims to have downed almost all of them. However, no one in the West believes this anymore. Even according to the statements of General Oleksandr Syrskyj, the commander-in-chief of the Ukrainian armed forces, only a quarter of the Russian cruise missiles and rockets are being downed. For the cheap Iranian-style drones, it's two-thirds. However, these drones primarily serve to engage air defense, and the real damage is caused by the hits from precision weapons.
Rockets, Drones, Cruise Missiles
On Monday, three hypersonic Kinzhal missiles were used, along with 115 cruise missiles, 77 Kh-101s, 28 of the Kalibr type, and 10 air-launched Kh-59/69s. Ukraine claims to have downed 99 of them. Naturally, it's difficult to determine the exact number of "hits", but the discrepancy with Syrskyj's figures is striking. The X-Account "AMK Mapping" analyzes that none of the Kinzhal missiles were downed and estimates a conservative 56 hits from cruise missiles. Some of the over hundred drones used may also have reached their targets. The following night, August 26-27, the Russians used fewer weapons but still launched three Kinzhal hypersonic missiles, five Kh-101 cruise missiles, and sixty drones.
These numbers are alarming. The logic "more than half were at least downed" doesn't apply here, as the weapons that get through cause massive damage. In this case, 60 critical targets were damaged in a single attack, although multiple weapons may hit the same target. As a result of the massive attacks in recent months, about 80-90% of Ukraine's power generation capacity in thermal power plants and about 45% in hydroelectric power plants have been lost.
Permanent Damage
Unlike earlier attacks, those in 2024 are causing irreversible damage because Russian cruise missiles are hitting the central machinery halls of power plants. Such damage can only be repaired by rebuilding. Short-term blackouts have little significance, as operators react to the "shocks" of the network. A complete, continuous "lights out" is not expected. In a power grid, supply and demand must always be synchronous. If large industrial consumers are taken off the grid, a network with significantly reduced capacity can still function at a low level.
So far, the Russians have focused on coal and gas power plants, which are now almost completely destroyed. The latest escalation, the attack on the hydroelectric power plant on the dam of the Kyiv Reservoir, indicates that Moscow will increasingly target hydropower plants, despite the risk of damaging dams. Similarly, as seen in the summer, military factories located in cities are being heavily targeted. While a sudden breach of the dam to the bottom, as in a disaster movie, is unlikely from an accidental hit, flooding of large inhabited areas is possible. Power is still available mainly due to the continued operation of Ukrainian nuclear power plants.
Attacks in intervals
Power grid nodes and substations could be quickly restored by Kyiv with the help of allies. However, the damage to the facilities themselves is permanent. The Russians are attacking these installations with such intensity that they practically need to be rebuilt from scratch. Russia is thus causing lasting damage that will persist beyond the war. The Kyiv School of Economics (KSE) estimated the damage in the energy sector alone to be around 50 billion euros by June.
The Russians are not capable of launching hundreds of cruise missiles and drones every day. These attacks occur in intervals of several weeks, with time also needed to assess the effects of previous attacks and designate new targets. If the Russians continue this offensive, there will likely be more civilian casualties. In the energy sector, the easy targets have already been destroyed, leaving only the riskier ones.
Overall, the insufficient and delayed delivery of air defense systems from the West to Ukraine is proving costly. While air defense can hinder Russian attacks, it cannot do so to a sufficient extent to prevent heavy damage. Currently, Ukraine is fitting the description given by Adolf Galland, a famous fighter pilot from World War II: it is a "house without a roof".
Kyiv also strikes back
Kyiv's most effective countermeasure is not the protection of its own territory, but strikes deep into Russia. For this, the weapons supplied from the West must continue to be used, either without restriction or with limited restrictions. So far, Ukraine has relied on drones of its own production, based on ultralight aircraft and with a very long range. There have been many spectacular successes, especially against oil depots and refineries, which are suitable targets due to their explosive and flammable fuels. The destruction effect is mainly caused by the subsequent fires, not just the limited warhead.
Drones may not be indestructible weapons, but Russia has its hands full dealing with the vastness of its land and safeguarding numerous potential targets. On August 27th, President Zelensky declared that Ukraine had successfully tested their inaugural ballistic missile. With the capability to manufacture their own weapons, the nation can break free from the limitations imposed by their Western allies. This was a move that was widely expected. Back in the Soviet era, several defense corporations operated within the country. The technical know-how still exists. In the present day, constructing missiles isn't an impossible task, especially considering Kyiv likely has access to all essential components from the West. The trickiest part will be designing an effective warhead, which can independently strike its target, not the missile portion responsible for propelling it on a ballistic path. Both sides will beef up their aerial attacks, resulting in more significant damage.
The Use of Drones and Cruise Missiles Persists: Following the overwhelming use of over 200 cruise missiles, rockets, and drones on August 25-26, Russia continued its aerial assault on Ukrainian infrastructure, launching three Kinzhal missiles, 56 cruise missiles, and 60 drones the following night.
Permanent Damage to Power Plants: The recent attacks on power plants by Russian cruise missiles have resulted in irreversible damage, with the central machinery halls of these facilities needing to be rebuilt. So far, coal and gas power plants have been almost completely destroyed, and there are indications that Moscow will also target hydroelectric power plants, posing a risk of damaging dams and flooding inhabited areas.
