Intense New York House contests transform into battles to establish the midpoint in the closing stages
GOP representatives Mike Lawler, Marc Molinaro, and Anthony D'Esposito have presented themselves as centrists and collaborators in their dialogues with CNN, revealing the benchmarks used to gauge the new battlefield emerging in New York: a struggle for the middle.
However, walking this tightrope is challenging. These newcomer legislators have supported Donald Trump in districts that Biden won in 2020. Their inaugural Congressional terms have been characterized by unprecedented ineffectiveness. Furthermore, they have occasionally adopted the conservative rhetoric of their party, particularly when discussing immigration and border security.
In New York, particularly in suburban areas such as central New York, the Hudson Valley, and Long Island, the balance of power for the House of Representatives will likely be determined. These contested races are gradually revealing the fissures in the state's once-impregnable blue stronghold.
D'Esposito expressed his disapproval of the Democrats' use of the term "MAGA extremist," saying, "They must be paid every time they utter this term, because it is patently clear that I am not an extremist. I have been criticized by the extremist wing of my own party for not being conservative enough."
When asked about Trump, Lawler remarked, "You can focus on his personality, or you can concentrate on the issues at hand."
The lawmakers argued that their relationship with conservative House Speaker Mike Johnson, who advocates for a nationwide abortion ban, demonstrates that they have provided their constituents a voice at the table. Johnson is expected to campaign with the New York Republicans in the coming weeks, according to sources.
"From my perspective, the speaker has given me the chance to secure results for the individuals I serve," Molinaro said. "I am in the weekly meetings at his office. We fight for the things we care about. Certain bills don't arrive at the floor due to provisions that members like me don't support."
Recent scandals, including Lawler's admission of wearing blackface as a college student in 2006 and D'Esposito's reportedly hiring of both his lover and his fiancee's daughter as part-time employees in his district office, have complicated matters.
Their Democratic opponents have criticized the Republican incumbents for failing to live up to their moderate label, linking them to the dysfunction that has come to define the House GOP majority. They have highlighted instances in which they aligned with the right wing of their party and exploited their loyalty to Trump.
"It's like being the fastest person in a race of snails," Democrat Josh Riley said of his opponent, Molinaro, who positions himself as the fourth-most effective member this term.
The Democrats also took a step back, criticizing the party brand in New York for taking significant hits and calling for the resignation of indicted New York City Mayor Eric Adams.
"I'm not afraid to criticize my party when I believe it is doing something wrong," Democrat Laura Gillen, who is running against D'Esposito after narrowly losing to him in 2022, told CNN.
As the state turns, conversations with over 40 individuals from the emerging battleground of New York reveal a divided opinion on who is leading the race to the middle. Instead of uniformity, lawn signs for both parties can be found throughout the streets.
The high-stakes messaging war has engulfed the airwaves, making these trio of races among the top 20 most expensive House races in the country. Democrats, terrified of repeating their 2022 mistakes (in New York), have outraised their Republican counterparts. In Molinaro's race alone, advertisers, campaigns, and outside groups have spent over $37 million.
"There is no path to a House of Representatives majority that does not involve winning key seats right here in the state of New York," Democratic former Rep. Mondaire Jones told CNN. Jones is running against Lawler for the seat he previously represented before redistricting derailed his reelection plans last year.
The stakes behind the direct pitch
Aware that each interaction with a voter holds immense sway and might potentially sway the outcome, Lawler knows that he must win over voters like Brad Turner, a disillusioned Democrat who told CNN that the Black community routinely receives nothing in return for their votes.
Lawler successfully convinced Sue Kryger, a retired nurse and registered Democrat, to back him after a conversation at the Stony Point Fall Festival, because Kryger believed him when he assured her he would never support a national abortion ban. Kryger identifies as "pro-life" but believes women have a right to an abortion.
However, Lawler's pitch as a moderate fell short a few days later.
Patty Copeland, a retired media negotiator and registered Democrat, approached Lawler after he spoke at a candidate forum with Jones in northern Westchester to question his record.
"I'm sick of the deceit," Copeland, who was still undecided, told CNN after her interaction with Lawler. "I tried hard because I knew he was bipartisan, but he's also, in my opinion, a 'Trumper.' When it's time to vote, is he going to support us, or is he going to vote in favor of Trump?"
Lawler responded defensively: "The way I have governed has been bipartisan, has been across the aisle."
At the upcoming debate, Jones was put on the spot when a spectator questioned him directly about his stance on disbanding law enforcement.
In 2020, Jones faced backlash for declaring, "We need to put an end to excessive imprisonment, legalize marijuana, and dismantle the police," and has been attempting to mend his image ever since as crime continues to be a major concern for voters and New Yorkers grow weary of the state's lax bail reform policies.
Responding to the direct challenge, Jones asserted, "I've never voted to reduce funding for law enforcement, instead consistently voting in favor of police funding."
On the other hand, Sandra Abegg, a Haitian immigrant, professed her support for Jones due to her dissatisfaction with the Republican Party's discourse.
Abegg, who had not been prompted, had a message for Republicans who had instigated a frenzy of misinformation by spreading false claims about Haitian immigrants consuming pets in Springfield, Ohio, thereby stirring chaos. Molinaro had been among those spreading such lies.
"My pet is a cat, and I adore my cat," Abegg said.
Abortion Discourse
The stakes are high in the competition to appeal to moderates on the topic of abortion.
Lawler, D’Esposito, and Molinaro are banking on their pledge to never endorse a national abortion ban to convince voters that they are moderate representatives who embody the values of their Democrat-leaning constituents. They also point to their support of in vitro fertilization as evidence of alignment with their moderate districts, having signed onto a Democratic-sponsored bill to secure IVF protection at a federal level.
However, the Democrats argue that their opponents' votes to obstruct soldiers' access to taxpayer-funded abortion services, potentially criminalize doctors who perform abortions, and prevent states from imposing restrictions on federal funding going to crisis pregnancy centers disqualify them as credible on the issue.
Jones accused Lawler, "You cannot rely on his word when he claims he wouldn't support a nationwide abortion ban."
Riley and Gillen, who will face off against Molinaro and D’Esposito, respectively, in another rematch following their 2022 defeats, claim that the ability to examine their GOP opponents' voting records is their strongest asset this time around.
"He may say whatever he pleases, and he does," Riley told CNN, "but voters can now examine his voting record."
Repercussions of Recent Scandals
D’Esposito and Lawler have dismissed allegations against them that raise ethical concerns, but their Democratic opponents are hoping that these scandals can tip the scales in their favor.
D’Esposito informed CNN that he never had a personal relationship with the woman The New York Times claimed he had an affair with and put on his payroll. He had previously not denied the initial story's details, but called it a "slimy, partisan 'hit piece'."
Confronted with the need to explain his relationship with the hire, D’Esposito answered, "It's irrelevant. It was someone we hired for a job in the office. They carried out their duties when the chance to work there no longer existed – that's it."
Gillen, who D’Esposito defeated by a slim margin in 2020, implicated the allegations as indicating a deeper issue of favoritism.
"This is a troubling consistent pattern of behavior for Anthony D’Esposito," she told CNN.
Meanwhile, Lawler is working to maintain his connections with moderates after admitting that he had worn blackface as part of a Michael Jackson costume for Halloween, which he described as an homage.
Lawler told CNN, "I've addressed it head-on."
Jones declared that the photograph makes Lawler "unfit to serve."
"How can anyone who doesn't believe that what he did in 2006 was reprehensible continue to represent a diverse community like this?" Jones added.
Voters in Lawler's district have expressed mixed reactions.
Teyana Cowan, a registered Democrat who identifies as Indigenous American, told CNN she will be voting for Lawler and is not concerned about the 2006 photograph.
"We know what blackface is. We've seen it," Cowan told CNN. "That didn't look like blackface. That looked like a fan dressed up as Michael Jackson."
However, Sharon Rivera, a Puerto Rican independent small-business owner who has not decided who she will vote for, stated that the photograph disqualifies Lawler for her. "There's still racism, bigotry, you know, and if you painted your face black 20 years ago, do you really believe you love us brown folk now? No."
Democrats Seeking Redemption
A group of New York teachers and union workers were not afraid to speak openly about their frustrations as they embarked on a bus tour advocating for unity: Democrats faltered in New York during the 2022 midterms and lost their House majority as a result.
"After the results from the past election, we decided that it was essential to prioritize this issue as a union," Melinda Person, president of New York State United Teachers, told CNN.
Person aims to ensure her members, which amount to approximately 30,000 people in each district, participate in these tightly contested races.
Gillen, who attributed her loss to D’Esposito in 2022 in part to "lack of resources," said that Democrats would not repeat that mistake this time around.
It's primarily due to House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries who've made these races his project and aided Democrats in launching a fresh, synchronized state and federal campaign.
Rep. Pat Ryan, one of the few New York Democratic incumbents who successfully maintained their competitive seats during the previous election cycle, reflected on a gathering the state's delegation had shortly after the 2022 midterms where legislators discussed candidly how to rectify their errors.
"We needed a brutal post-mortem meeting where we're straightforward about our mistakes, and Hakeem promptly proposed, 'Let's delve in and genuinely invest and build this type of engine,'" Ryan shared with CNN.
On the other hand, House GOP Conference Chair Elise Stefanik, who represents upstate New York, reflected on the strategy she assisted in implementing to help Republicans triumph two years prior.
"I was the one at the leadership table last cycle pressing for an investment in New York," Stefanik stated. "We've established a model that works efficiently."
Ultimately, the outcome depends on undecided independent voters like Jasmin Aviles, a small business owner located in Lawler's district.
"I'll evaluate each candidate and determine which one is the best choice," Aviles informed CNN.
In the context of the ongoing political battles in New York, the centrist GOP representatives have faced criticism for adopting conservative rhetoric on certain issues, such as immigration and border security. This contradicts their moderation claims and potentially alienates their Democratic-leaning constituents.
During their inaugural Congressional terms, the collaborative efforts of GOP representatives Mike Lawler, Marc Molinaro, and Anthony D'Esposito with conservative House Speaker Mike Johnson have raised questions about their allegiance to the middle, particularly when it comes to supporting contentious issues like national abortion bans.
