Intense heat and severe thunderstorms usher in the autumn period.
Despite meteorologically speaking, autumn has commenced in Germany, the country is set for another week of scorching summer temperatures with potential tropical nights ahead. However, the threat of severe weather conditions is also on the rise in certain areas.
With August being the fifth-warmest on record, resulting in a temperature increase of over 2 degrees, summer is gradually drawing to a close. Meteorologically, we're already in autumn. Unfortunately, the weather isn't cooperating and is predicting a week of summer-like weather.
Up until at least Wednesday, forecasts suggest temperatures of up to 30 degrees Celsius and beyond. Following this, temperatures might start to decrease - although weather models are not in agreement on this, particularly in the south and east where the heat might persist for an extended period.
Not only are the high temperatures persisting, but humidity levels are also expected to increase from the southwest. This increase in humidity is due to a low pressure system named "Xania" moving towards us from France. Meanwhile, a high pressure system named "Quentin" in the north and over Scandinavia will provide drier air. This conflicting weather situation could potentially place us in a critical and potentially hazardous position in some areas.
Alongside the escalating heat stress, which will see temperatures reach as high as 35 degrees Celsius and tropical nights with minimum temperatures not dipping below 20 degrees Celsius, the probability of thunderstorms is also escalating significantly. Although the specifics and distribution remain unclear, we must prepare for severe thunderstorms with the potential for heavy rain, hail, and strong winds, reaching gale force. Local flooding is also a possibility, as rainfall could exceed or match 30 liters per square meter within a short period. Here are the specifics.
Night till Monday: Lightning first, then calm
Local thunderstorms triggered by heat and warmth will subside during the night. This might result in the formation of dense fog fields, particularly in the south. In metropolitan regions along the Rhine and Ruhr, temperatures will remain warm around 20 degrees Celsius, the rest of the day will be dry and clear with temperatures ranging from 16 to 11 degrees.
Monday: Thunderstorm likelihood and humidity increase
Low pressure system "Xania" moves from the British Isles towards France, impacting our weather. This will cause the wind to shift towards the south, further boosting the heat and humidity. In the south and west, severe thunderstorms with heavy rain, hail, and gale-force winds are expected during the day. The rest of the country will remain relatively calm. Additionally, in the north and higher mountain ranges, temperatures will range from 22 to 27 degrees, while the rest of the country will be very humid with temperatures of 28 to 31 degrees.
Tuesday and Wednesday: Heat and lightning
In the northeast and east, the situation seems to remain relatively calm. Most weather models are predicting partly heavy thunderstorms in the rest of the country, with a risk of severe weather and flooding in certain areas. Accordingly, temperatures will also vary: In the east, it will grow increasingly hot, but the air humidity will be lowest at 30 to just below 35 degrees. Otherwise, temperatures will frequently peak at humid 20 to 30 degrees.
From Thursday: Division remains, temperatures gradually more relaxed
We are dealing with some uncertainties heading towards the weekend. It's likely to be less intense, with temperatures ranging from 22 to 30 degrees Celsius. The severe weather appears to be easing up, but thunderstorms, especially in the southwestern region, might still occur. To the east of the Elbe, it's expected to be sunny and dry, with an increased risk of forest fires. By Wednesday, certain areas might reach the highest danger level of 5.
Despite the high temperatures and humidity levels, exacerbated by the low pressure system "Xania" and potential tropical nights, the risk of extreme weather events is escalating. Severe thunderstorms with heavy rain, hail, and strong winds are predicted, posing a threat of local flooding, especially in certain areas.
As the low pressure system "Xania" moves closer, potential thunderstorms and heavy rain could further increase humidity levels, creating a critical and potentially hazardous situation.
