Insulting Trump Harris too much, it backfires
Donald Trump is under pressure. The Republican has a new opponent in Kamala Harris who will take a tougher approach in the US election campaign. This changes the dynamics completely, explains Thomas Greven, expert for the party system and the election campaign in the USA at the John F. Kennedy Institute of the Free University Berlin, in an interview with ntv.de.
ntv.de: One week ago, Donald Trump almost got assassinated. On Sunday, US President Joe Biden announced his withdrawal from the race for re-election. How chaotic and historic can this presidential election year still become?
Thomas Greven: It can now be assumed that Kamala Harris will really be the Democratic candidate. It's about deciding who she will bring on board as a candidate for the vice presidency. It should be a younger white man with government experience from the South or the Midwest, or the Rust Belt. (The so-called Rust Belt, the traditional industrial region of the USA, Anm. by the Red.)
Trump says: Harris is easier to defeat than Biden. Is that true?
No, not at all. The Republicans will try to portray Harris in a negative way, for example as too liberal or too radical, but the age argument no longer applies. Harris forces Trump into an open exchange and a much more difficult task. In particular, because the Democrats are quickly rallying behind Harris. If it had come to chaos and spoiler candidates, the image would have naturally changed.
What significance does Biden's withdrawal have for Trump?
Trump himself and his campaign have been preparing for Biden's withdrawal and Harris for some time. They act publicly as if it were a scandal and a hoax, but they have anticipated it. The withdrawal had already been circulating as a conspiracy theory in right-wing media for a longer time.
Will Trump take Harris as his main attack plan because she completely turns around his age argument as a Republican?
Indeed, especially if she has a younger vice president. That's why Trump chose JD Vance, a kind of younger Trump clone. Trump is being deprived of a significant argument because of this. That's why he reacts angrily. After the attack - which could have long-term consequences as a traumatic experience, Trump has so far played down - Trump wanted to go on a reconciliatory course. But that doesn't fit his nature, he can't do that. The age argument may be gone, but the aggressive tone of the campaign will not change, it will soon become even more divisive.
The presidency will again run on the Rust Belt and states like Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin. Does it play into Trump's hands if he now runs against Harris, whom the people there cannot identify with as California liberals?
The Republicans will certainly try to do this. Trump has chosen Vance for himself, someone who enjoys some credibility in these states. Harris must counter this with a skillful selection, otherwise she falls into the Hillary Clinton trap and indeed has problems. She could come across as too elitist and radical, despite the fact that she is not that way, especially when one looks at her Law-and-Order past.
How will Trump attack his new opponent?
As a member of the government, Kamala Harris cannot escape the fact that she is associated with Biden's politics. The Republicans will approach her as part of what they absurdly claim to be "the worst government of all time." For the Democrats, it's fortunate that Biden is not retreating from the presidency, allowing Harris to distance herself a bit from the government and appear freer. For Trump, there is a risk: If he attacks Harris too harshly or treats her with derogatory nicknames, as he did with Biden and is very skilled at, independent and swing voters could punish him.
Since she's a woman and of Color?
Yes, it's riskier to attack her as a woman than as an old, white man. And in the Battleground States, where it's still unclear which candidate will win the voters, sharp attacks on Kamala Harris could remind some people of what a nasty type Trump is.
An analysis by the Pew Research Center of the 2016 election revealed that Trump's victory was partly due to a two-point advantage among white women voters, who made up 41% of the electorate. Trump, however, is losing the support of women now. He has chosen a vehemently anti-abortion vice president in Mike Pence. Is it a risk for him that a woman is running against him?
Definitely, because women voters in the Battleground States are the key to winning the election. With them, the election can be decided. The apathy towards Biden among this important demographic, despite his holding similar positions, could turn positive for the Democrats thanks to Harris. The abortion issue is a potential winning issue for the Democrats. Harris has been working on this issue at the grassroots level for a long time and was always present when any bill to restrict abortion rights was passed.
The Democrats almost wrote off Georgia and now, with Harris, they could have a significant advantage among women and women and men of color there.
The Democrats hope that Harris, due to her background and strong engagement for women's rights, will score points. Previously, there was a certain apathy towards Biden there, even though he holds similar positions. But Harris brings a different dynamic that could be dangerous for Trump because she could mobilize this demographic.
Will Trump change his macho attitude, which has been a major attraction for male voters?
Trump has repeatedly shown a keen political instinct, even when under attack, and deliberately arranged an iconic photo of the assassination attempt. However, this is in contrast to the fact that it is difficult for him to tactically retreat. It would surprise me if he were able to do so. Alone, because he does not want to add to the cult of personality in his base, he is unlikely to do so.
Biden outperformed Trump in the TV debate. Does he have more reason to be afraid of Harris?
Donald Trump must reckon with a different debate dynamic and tougher approach from Kamala Harris; he is facing a different caliber of opponent compared to Joe Biden. As a former prosecutor, senator, and presidential candidate, she has repeatedly shown that she can be sharp and pointed in debates. Trump has already proposed that the next debate be switched from ABC to the conservative network Fox and that the rules be adjusted a little. He knows that it won't be easy with Harris.
Will Harris pose a danger to Trump in debates because, as a former prosecutor, she can attack a convicted criminal differently than Biden?
Trump's indictments are just one part of the Democrats' arsenal. Biden tried the same thing, but it's less about substance in this type of debate. Trump's rhetorical strategy is to tell an unfathomable amount of nonsense, claim, and insult at a high speed and density. This tempo and density cannot be answered with arguments, facts, and numbers. It's about exposing and making the opponent look ridiculous. Being spontaneous. It's all about presence and performance, the emotional appeal. Biden's weaknesses were exactly that. Harris brings something entirely different to the table due to her experience as a prosecutor.
Emotionally, Trump targets his identified main enemies: illegal immigrants. He promised "the greatest deportation in history" if he wins in the fall. Harris has described him as a "failed border czar" because she couldn't get a handle on Biden's immigration policy.
Harris' role as Vice President included keeping this difficult issue away from Biden, and she was held responsible for the problems in this area. Immigration is a massive gateway for populism and radical proposals. Besides inflation and Ukraine, it's the issue where Trump will try to score points most in terms of substance. But he'll likely be unable to attack on this issue even more than usual (laughs).
Trump and his slogan "Make America Great Again" represent nostalgia. And now comes a challenger in Kamala Harris, who, as a Black and woman, as an immigrant child with an Indian mother, stands for change and diversity. What are the consequences?
Harris can remind Trump that the past wasn't all that great. At least not from the perspective of many American women and men who don't belong to the white majority. Harris can counter Trump's claims empirically and authentically. She did this herself when both were competing for the nomination for the presidential candidacy in 2019. She had to be the more credible and attractive candidate for certain communities, especially Hispanic and African American men. However, parts of these communities, particularly Hispanic and African American men, are critical of issues like immigration, homosexuality, women's and trans rights. Harris won't completely reverse these trends, but she's better equipped to handle them than Biden and therefore more dangerous for Trump.
Trump finds himself in the unusual position of being the leading campaigner. For the first time in his political career, it's the other side that challenges him and could profit from chaos in the campaign.
The fact that Harris is not running as a President but as a challenger in the campaign changes the dynamics. Trump will unpack all his ammunition against Harris, but he's dealing with a combative and somewhat liberated challenger. Harris could awaken certain sensitivities and mobilize certain parts of the Democratic base and the population that see themselves as independent.
In football, there's a psychologically significant moment right before a goal just before halftime or what's called a Momentum Switch. What can something like this change in a Presidential campaign?
Momentum is quite significant because it has to do with how much money is raised. Even small donors have now adopted the Harris momentum, while Biden has recently lost supporters. If the ranks behind Harris quickly close and she generates some swing with the right vice presidential pick, she could take the momentum away from Trump. Previously, it seemed that everything was going well for Trump, but this dynamic has been disrupted. We are in a completely different game now.
Since elections in the USA are often extremely close, they can only be won by mobilizing, motivating, and inspiring people in the decisive states. It's obviously still unclear whether this would work for Harris, and she certainly won't be able to mobilize a base as effectively as Trump's loyal following. But she will certainly do better among the Democratic base than Biden. This could be a problem for Trump.
Interview with Thomas Greven, conducted by David Bedürftig
With Biden stepping down, the focus shifts to the US Presidential Election 2024 and Kamala Harris as a potential Democratic candidate. The dynamics of the election campaign are drastically altered, as Harris is expected to take a tougher stance against Donald Trump, according to Thomas Greven, an expert on American party systems and election campaigns.
As the United States of America prepares for the 2024 presidential election, the role of Donald Trump and Kamala Harris becomes increasingly significant. The withdrawal of President Joe Biden from the race has opened up new opportunities and challenges for both Trump and Harris in their bid for the highest office in the land.
