Insights on the Night of the European Election
European election night will go down in history: Most parties are either winners or losers, with changes happening all over. For the traffic light coalition, the election brings immediate consequences. Friedrich Merz believes a drastic approach is necessary. Both the traffic light coalition and the Union have reasons to be worried. Here are the ten most notable takeaways from the election results, as reported by ntv.de.
- The budget dilemma: Ampel's competence is limited in office The initial calculations were barely finished, and Ampel representatives were already at odds with each other. The SPD lost more than ten percentage points below its Bundestag election result, with about 14%. SPD leader Lars Klingbeil immediately began tough budget negotiations with the FDP. The FDP chair, Federal Finance Minister Christian Lindner, could see himself confirmed in his party with a comparatively weak 5%. He remained resolute in his demand for social cuts while ruling out any bypass or loosening of the debt brake. How a double-digit billion hole in the upcoming budget can be filled is unclear. The divided traffic light coalition can only muddle through until the 2025 federal election, possibly not even that.
- Moderation is not rewarded: Nobody wants this chancellor SPD lead candidate Katarina Barley was too unknown. The SPD instead presented her as the peace guarantee for Germany, making the election about Scholz. The results were disastrous. The SPD lost massively even with relatively high voter turnout and is back to the low level of 2017-2019. The Union demands that Scholz resign. However, the SPD has every reason to fear new elections.
- A sweeping victory: Merz is steering for the chancellorship Democrats and SPD politicians often emphasize that CDU leader Friedrich Merz is not particularly popular with voters. However, it doesn't matter: The Union won the European election convincingly. Whether it would have done better with a different CDU leader is hard to say. It's Merz who's led the Union to where it is now. The results could have been better, but based on the current state, the next chancellor is Friedrich Merz.
- Chaos and high voter turnout: AfD remains strong in second place despite scandals The AfD's initial candidate, Maximilian Krah, had to be kept hidden during the election campaign. Petr Bystron, the second AfD candidate, stayed away from the public voluntarily due to accusations of being paid for Russian propaganda. Additionally, the party's legal designation as a right-wing extremist suspect and the conviction of Björn Höcke: The AfD couldn't rid itself of any of this. With around 16%, the party is the second strongest force. The party leadership is ecstatic, but will still question: What if the top candidate had been less scandal-prone?
- Alienation in the East: The traffic light parties are only at 20% The traffic light parties achieve only around 20% of the votes in the eastern federal states and Berlin. It's enough that 80% of voters feel unrepresented by government parties at the federal level. However, that 27% of them vote for the particularly right-wing radical AfD and another 13% for the populist Wagenknecht alliance speaks volumes about their isolation from the rest of the republic. In particular, the handling of Russia may have contributed to these voting decisions. A turnaround before the state elections in Brandenburg, Saxony, and Thuringia is not expected.
- The Greens' setback: Drastic decline after the 2019 record result The Greens had achieved a record result of 20.5% in 2019. Five years later, it's the exact opposite. The Greens are now below their previous survey values. Climate protection has lost its appeal, and climate-conscious young people are now turning to smaller parties like Volt. It's noticeable that the many concessions in the traffic light coalition have damaged the relationship between the Greens and the various environmental and climate movements. At the same time, the Greens are back at the beginning of their efforts to win voters beyond their own circle.
- Europe moves to the right Winner in France is Marine Le Pen, who has spent years cleansing her party from right-wing extremism, from the Front National to the right-populist Rassemblement National. The party won a third of the votes in the European elections and twice as many as Renaissance. In Austria, the FPO won, in the Netherlands, the PVV of Geert Wilders was the second strongest force, in Italy, the post-fascist Giorgia Meloni won, who currently sits in a different, more moderate faction than the FPO and the Le Pen party. The implications for the work in the European Parliament are yet to be seen: The far-right parties are traditionally divided, aiming either to encircle or fight Europe. Just days before the election, Le Pen ensured that the AfD was excluded from the right-wing extremism and democracy faction; this is also an act of rehabilitation. Now, after the election, the AfD hopes for reconnection. "With this record result, we naturally also have wind in our sails for our negotiations," said AfD leader Tino Chrupalla on election night.
- Liberals breathe a sigh of relief: 5% is a small consolation after a dire warning Around 5% for the FDP is a result that liberals can be satisfied with - it could have been worse. However, this result can only be viewed positively if contrasted with far worse European election results in the past. The reference point is the 11.5% in the Bundestag 2021 election. The liberal group in the European Parliament, "Renew Europe", will be much smaller than in the past five years. The party of French President Emmanuel Macron, which used to be the largest group in this faction, has been downgraded. Even on election night, Macron announced that he would dissolve the National Assembly and thus trigger new elections.
- Youth do not choose the left While the numbers are not directly comparable due to 16-year-olds not being able to participate in the European election five years ago, the trend is clear and fits the picture. In 2019, 30% of 18-29-year-olds voted for the Greens, with the Union in second place at 13%. The Greens had exceeded their historical success rate of 20.5% among young people. This has completely reversed: According to preliminary figures from Infratest Dimap, 17% of 16-24-year-olds voted for the Union - and the same percentage for the AfD. The Greens only achieved 11% in this age group, while the SPD only received 9%. Together, the Greens, SPD, and Left had amassed 46% of the votes in 2019. Now, these three parties are down to 26% among 16-24-year-olds.
- Smaller parties are growing The "Others" were the most successful party among 16-24-year-olds. And left of the gray bar, which also includes small parties like Volt and "The Party", the Animal Welfare Party, the Family Party, and the ODP, there are more and more parties. Since the 1980s, new parties have been added at ever-shorter intervals: first the Greens, who are now established, then the PDS, whose legacy is the Left, then the AfD, and most recently the Alliance 90/The Left. Five factions and two groups currently sit in the Bundestag, and there could be even more after the next election. This has its advantages - a broader range of opinions. However, it also has serious disadvantages - the work in parliament becomes more challenging, as does the formation of governments.
