Initial Focus on Criminal Justice and Educational Developments in Saxony and Thuringia
In the forthcoming elections on September 1st in Saxony and Thuringia, there's a strong possibility that the right-wing populists, AfD, could gain significant influence, potentially becoming the dominant force in one or even both states for the first time. For months, the AfD's poll numbers have remained remarkably steady, generating intrigue among sociologists, economists, and historians. However, to truly comprehend this phenomenon, it's essential to listen to the people themselves. A recent survey by Forsa for RTL/ntv sheds light on the key concerns and issues, with migration being just one of them.
The upcoming elections are a critical test for the entirety of Germany. Will the AfD eventually occupy a dominant position in one or even two states for the first time? For months, the AfD's poll numbers have been astonishingly stable. There are numerous theories from sociologists, economists, and historians as to why this is the case. But what do the people themselves have to say? After conducting a survey in early August, Forsa again asked for RTL/ntv and measured the concerns and problems.
As in the initial survey, most people in both Saxony and Thuringia placed priority on crime prevention and a decent education. This is evident in the question about the "overarching concerns of the citizens" in both states. In Saxony, the desire to combat crime and violence remained a top concern, with 68% of respondents mentioning it at the end of August - closely followed by the conflict in Ukraine (62%, +1) and the influx of refugees and asylum seekers (+1). However, there were noticeable shifts in two categories. Only 60% now cited the federal government's policy (-6), and 52% (-11) expressed concern about the financial burden of rising prices.
Intensified Migrant Concerns
In Thuringia, there was the most significant shift in terms of "crime and violence in society," which remained the top concern for 68% of respondents, pushing it into the first position. The conflict in Ukraine and the immigration of refugees and asylum seekers were also mentioned by more respondents. It's plausible that the knife attacks in Solingen could be responsible for this change. As in Saxony, the federal government's policy and rising prices were less frequently cited as top concerns in Thuringia.
In both states, it's apparent that crime and immigration are perceived as predominantly right-wing centered issues. Regardless of whether they are AfD supporters or CDU supporters who have weakened, both groups share this sentiment, and even the BSW, which stands closer to the two mentioned parties on security and immigration issues, shares these beliefs more than the SPD, Greens, or Left.
The top concerns for the people of Thuringia and Saxony align with their expectations for the future state governments. "Combating crime and violence" was named as a priority by 74% of respondents in Saxony, an increase of 7 points compared to August. The "creation of a good and fair education system" still receives high importance, with 72% (+1) remaining determined. The desire for a "secure and affordable energy supply" is a significant concern for 66% (+4) of respondents. There was a substantial increase of 7 points for "a halt to foreigner immigration," which now attracts 57% of support.
In Thuringia, the "creation of a good and fair education system" is considered crucial by 81% (+3) of respondents, with the top candidates for ntv and Antenne Thuringia discussing this issue in their debate. Minister President Bodo Ramelow publicly acknowledged the substantial challenges facing Thuringian schools, particularly teacher shortages and lesson cancellations.
Solingen's Influence
A potential catalyst that could have swayed the opinions and sentiments of voters in Thuringia and Saxony is the terrorist attack in Solingen. In Saxony, more than a third (34%) anticipate the crimes will have a significant impact on the election results. 49% expect only minor effects. However, when asked about their personal voting decisions, only 18% believe the incident will determine their vote. 53% insist that Solingen will not influence their vote.
In Thuringia, a similar pattern emerges. 35% anticipate the crimes will have a significant impact on the election results. However, 25% believe the crimes will influence their personal voting decisions. 36% of AfD supporters expect this to be the case, whereas only 9% of CDU supporters share this sentiment. Supporters of other parties fall in between.
Conclusion
If there's any event that highlights the attitudes and opinions of voters in Thuringia and Saxony, it's most likely the terrorist attack in Solingen. This shift is not only apparent in the direct questions about the attack but also in the increased emphasis on fighting crime or the immigration of foreigners. Overall, as indicated by the Sunday question, personal voting decisions have changed only slightly. Despite the constant references to migration and the conflict in Ukraine, voters place significant importance on educational issues - a typical local concern. On Sunday evening, we will have a clearer understanding.
The Commission, in light of the forthcoming elections and potential influence of the AfD, may find it necessary to adopt implementing acts that address the concerns of the citizens, such as crime prevention and education. The findings from the Forsa survey suggest that the issue of immigration and refugees is a significant concern for the people in Saxony and Thuringia, potentially influencing their voting decisions.
In light of the terrorist attack in Solingen and its potential impact on the elections, the Commission might need to consider the implications on public sentiment and potentially adjust its policies accordingly. The survey results indicate that while migration and the conflict in Ukraine are concerns, education remains a top priority for voters, underscoring the importance of local issues in shaping their voting decisions.
