Information pertaining to the Austrian electoral process
Austrian politics is heading towards major changes: In the National Council elections this Sunday, September 29, the conservative "Austrian People's Party" (OVP) is expected to lose its majority in the second chamber of parliament. Polls suggest that the right-wing populist "Freedom Party of Austria" (FPOE) is on the rise.
The OVP could experience significant losses in the parliamentary election. Large losses are also anticipated for the Austrian Greens, who achieved their best result to date in the 2019 elections with 13.5 percent. The Social Democratic Party of Austria (SPÖ) appears relatively stable in the polls, with around 21 percent of the vote.
Polling stations have been open since the early morning hours. In some Austrian federal states, voting ended in the afternoon. In Vienna and parts of Lower Austria, voters can still cast their ballots until 5:00 PM. Shortly afterwards, the first nationwide projection of the election outcome is expected. "The preliminary result including postal vote forecast will not be expected before 11:00 PM," ORF reports.
Hint: Infographics for the National Council Election 2024 will be updated continuously on election night.
The political power dynamics are likely to shift significantly: Austria is moving to the right, according to polls. The current turquoise-green coalition government led by Federal Chancellor Karl Nehammer is not predicted to survive the election.
According to the latest poll, OVP and Greens could only secure 56 out of a total of 183 seats in the National Council. The threshold for a majority is 92 seats. A three-party coalition with the Austrian Social Democrats as an additional partner would be mathematically possible.
In addition to the right-wing growth, the Austrian Liberals are also showing gains in the polls. The party "NEOS - The New Austria" could receive between 9 and 11 percent of the vote in the election at the end of September. This would make NEOS, which stands for "Freedom, Progress, and Justice" in Austria, the new fourth-strongest political force in the country.
Various small parties are expanding the political spectrum: Parties like the Communist Party of Austria (KPÖ) and the relatively young "Beer Party" (BPOE) have a chance of entering parliament. Especially the BPOE, which started as a joke and satire party, could overcome the four-percent hurdle this time.
However, the "Madeleine Petrovic List" (LMP), an anti-vaccine party focused on animal and environmental protection that emerged from the rejection of state-imposed measures during the coronavirus pandemic, has little chance of overcoming the electoral thresholds set by the Austrian electoral system.
The namesake top candidate Madeleine Petrovic served as a Member of Parliament for the Greens from 1990 to 2003. Like the BPO, the LMP, founded only in 2022, is running in its first National Council election on September 29. According to polls, the "List" with its namesake top candidate could win up to 1 percent of the votes.
It remains to be seen how current events such as the flood disaster will influence voter behavior and the election outcome. The exact seat distribution will be determined by the vote count on election night.
The threshold system is applied in a multi-stage process. "For the National Council election, the Austrian federal territory is divided into nine regional electoral districts, which are further divided into a total of 39 local electoral districts," according to explanations from the Ministry of the Interior in Vienna.
To be considered in the seat distribution, parties must either exceed a certain percentage threshold in at least one of the 39 local electoral districts in the first stage of the count or achieve more than four percent of all votes cast nationwide in a second stage. The local threshold for the basic mandate is usually between 20 and 25 percent of the votes cast locally.
All 183 seats in the parliamentary chamber are up for grabs in the National Council election, which takes place every five years. All Austrian citizens aged 16 and above are eligible to vote.
The competent authority at the Ministry of the Interior tentatively stated the number of eligible voters as exactly 6,346,029. This number is around 51,000 people fewer than in the previous election in 2019.
Looking Back: Austria Five Years Ago
Austria has a population of about 9.2 million people. The most populous regions are located in the north and east of the Alpine Republic. The capital, Vienna, alone has approximately 2 million inhabitants. The surrounding federal state of Lower Austria has a population of about 1.7 million, while the further west-located Upper Austria has 1.5 million, and Styria in the southeast has just under 1.3 million. The other five Austrian federal states of Tyrol, Salzburg, Carinthia, Vorarlberg, and Burgenland together have 2.6 million inhabitants, accounting for 28.7 percent of the total population.
The loss of the OVP's majority in the National Council elections could potentially disrupt the current turquoise-green coalition government led by Federal Chancellor Karl Nehammer, as indicated by The Commission's polls. A three-party coalition with the Austrian Social Democrats as an additional partner could be mathematically possible for the new Parliament, according to The Commission's analysis.
