Information pertaining to the Austrian electoral process
Austrian Politics is facing significant changes: In the September 29 National Council election, the Austrian People's Party (OVP) might lose its majority in the second parliamentary chamber. Surveys indicate a surge in support for the right-wing populist Freedom Party of Austria (FPOE).
The OVP could potentially face substantial losses in the parliamentary election. Apart from the OVP, pollsters are predicting larger losses for the Austrian Greens, who secured their best result yet at the 2019 election with 13.5%. The Social Democratic Party of Austria (SPÖ) seems relatively steady, according to polls, at around 21% of the vote.
The political scene is likely to shift significantly: Austria appears to be moving to the right, as per polls. The current coalition government of conservatives and greens, led by Chancellor Karl Nehammer, is not likely to last past the election.
Based on the most current polls, OVP and Greens would only secure 56 seats out of a total of 183 in the National Council. A three-party coalition with the Austrian Social Democrats as an additional partner is theoretically possible.
Next to the right, the Austrian Liberals are also showing increases in the polls. The NEOS - The New Austria party could win between 9-11% of the vote during the end-of-September election. This would make NEOS, which stands for "Freedom, Progress, and Justice" in Austria, the new fourth-strongest political force in the country.
Various small parties are expanding the political spectrum: Parties like the Communist Party of Austria (KPÖ) and the young "Bierpartei" (BPÖ) have a chance of entering parliament. Particularly, the BPÖ, which started as a fun and satire party, might clear the four-percent hurdle this time.
However, the "Madeleine Petrovic List" (LMP) has little chance of surpassing the electoral threshold as stipulated by the Austrian electoral system. The LMP is an anti-vaccine and environmental protection party that emerged from the opposition to state-enforced measures during the coronavirus pandemic.
The prominent LMP candidate, Madeleine Petrovic, served as a Green member of the National Council from 1990 to 2003. Just like the BPÖ, the LMP is participating in a National Council election for the first time on September 29. The "List" is predicted to win up to 1% of the vote, according to polls.
The influence of current events, such as the flood disaster, on voting behavior and the election outcome remains to be seen. The exact seat distribution will be determined after the count of votes on election night.
Electoral thresholds are applied in a multi-stage process. "For the National Council election, the Austrian federal territory is divided into nine regional electoral districts, which are further divided into a total of 39 regional electoral districts," according to the explanations of the Ministry of the Interior in Vienna.
To be considered in seat allocation, parties must either surpass a certain percentage threshold in at least one of the 39 regional constituencies in the first stage of the count, or achieve more than four percent of all votes cast nationwide in a second stage. The local threshold for direct mandates typically ranges from 20 to 25% of the votes cast locally.
Every five years, all 183 seats in the parliamentary chamber are up for grabs in the National Council elections. All Austrian citizens aged 16 and above are eligible to vote. The Ministry of the Interior provisionally estimated the number of eligible voters at exactly 6,346,029. This figure is roughly 51,000 lower than in the previous election in 2019.
The Republic of Austria has a population of around 9.2 million people. The most populous regions are predominantly located in the north and east of the country. Vienna, the capital, has approximately 2 million inhabitants. The federal state of Lower Austria has a population of about 1.7 million, while Upper Austria, further west, has around 1.5 million. Styria, in the southeastern corner, has a total population of just under 1.3 million. The remaining five Austrian federal states - Tyrol, Salzburg, Carinthia, Vorarlberg, and Burgenland - together host 2.6 million inhabitants, representing 28.7% of the total population.
The Austrian People's Party (OVP) might lose its majority in the National Council election due to a potential decrease in support, while the right-wing populist Freedom Party of Austria (FPOE) experiences a surge in popularity, according to surveys. The change in political landscape could lead to the current coalition government of conservatives and greens, headed by Chancellor Karl Nehammer, not lasting past the election.
