Information pertaining to the Austrian election process
Austrian politics is gearing up for substantial changes: This coming Sunday, September 29, the National Council elections are happening, and the conservative "Austrian People's Party" (OVP) is bracing itself for losing its majority in the second parliamentary chamber. Polls suggest that the right-wing populist "Freedom Party of Austria" (FPOE) is on an upward trajectory.
The OVP could potentially face massive losses in the parliamentary election. Similarly, the Austrian Greens, who saw their best-ever results with 13.5% in the last election in 2019, are also predicted to see a decline. The Social Democratic Party of Austria (SPÖ) appears to be relatively stable in the polls, hovering around 21% of the votes.
Voting stations opened early in the morning. In some Austrian federal states, voting concludes in the afternoon, while in Vienna and parts of Lower Austria, residents will have until 5:00 PM to cast their ballots. Afterwards, the first nationwide projections of the election outcome should become available.
The infographics for the 2024 National Council election are based on the most recent poll values, which will be continually updated until election day.
According to the latest poll, a coalition of OVP and Greens would only secure 56 seats out of the total 183 seats in the National Council. The threshold for a majority is 92 seats. A three-party coalition including the Austrian Social Democrats as an additional partner is theoretically feasible.
In addition to the right-wing parties, the Austrian Liberals are also showing growth in the polls. "NEOS - The New Austria" could fetch between 9 and 11% of the votes in the election at the conclusion of September. This would make NEOS, known for their values of "Freedom, Progress, and Justice" in Austria, the new fourth strongest political force in the country.
Various small parties are broadening the political spectrum. Parties such as the Communist Party of Austria (KPÖ) and the relatively new "Bierpartei" (BPÖ) have the potential to enter the parliament. The BPÖ, which started as a fun and satirical party, is expected to climb over the 4% hurdle this time.
However, the "Madeleine Petrovic List" (LMP), an anti-vaccine animal and environmental protection party that sprung up in response to the rejection of state-imposed measures during the coronavirus pandemic, is unlikely to surpass the electoral threshold as per the Austrian electoral system.
The LMP's charismatic leader, Madeleine Petrovic, served in the National Council for the Greens from 1990 to 2003. Similar to the BPÖ, the LMP is participating in a National Council election for the first time this Sunday, September 29. According to polls, the "List" may garner up to 1% of the votes with its charismatic leader.
The impact of recent events, such as the flood disaster, on voter behavior and the election outcome remains unknown. The precise seat distribution will only be determined following vote counting on election night.
Under the multi-stage process, threshold clauses are applied. "(Explanation from the Ministry of the Interior in Vienna)" explains that Austria is divided into nine federal electoral districts, which are further divided into a total of 39 regional electoral districts.
To be considered in the seat allocation, parties must either pass a certain percentage threshold in at least one of the 39 regional electoral districts in the first stage of counting or achieve more than 4% of the nationwide votes in a second stage. The local threshold for a basic mandate is usually 20 to 25% of the local votes.
Every five years, all 183 seats in the parliamentary chamber are up for grabs. All Austrians and Austrians aged 16 and over are eligible to vote.
According to the provisional estimate by the Ministry of the Interior, exactly 6,346,029 eligible voters are residing in Austria. This figure is approximately 51,000 lesser compared to the prior election in 2019.
Looking back: Austria five years ago
Approximately 9.2 million individuals call the Republic of Austria their home. The most populous regions lie in the north and east of the Alpine Republic. Vienna alone holds around two million inhabitants. Lower Austria, surrounding the capital, has a population of about 1.7 million. Upper Austria, located further west, houses 1.5 million, with Styria in the southeast having a total of just under 1.3 million. The remaining five Austrian federal states comprising Tyrol, Salzburg, Carinthia, Vorarlberg, and Burgenland house a population of 2.6 million, corresponding to a population share of 28.7%.
The Freedom Party of Austria (FPÖ) is predicted to see a significant increase in support, challenging the conservative Austrian People's Party (OVP) in the upcoming National Council elections. If the latest polls hold true, a coalition between the OVP and Greens would only secure a minority in the National Council.
