Information pertaining to Austria's electoral process and results
A clear outcome is unfolding in Austria: The conservative "Austrian People's Party" (ÖVP) is facing a significant decrease in majority in the parliament during the National Council election. The right-wing populist "Freedom Party of Austria" (FPO) is leading triumphantly on election night.
According to projections on the night, the FPO is projected to secure 28.8 percent, making it the new dominant force with its top candidate Herbert Kickl. This marks the first time in the history of the Alpine Republic that a right-wing party has emerged victorious in a National Council election. Preliminary results after polling station closures showed the right-wing populists temporarily commanding over 29 percent of the votes. An interim official count result is anticipated around 11:00 PM.
Hint: Infographics for the National Council election 2024 will be updated recursively on election night.
The ÖVP slips to second place with an expected 26.3 percent, as reported by the Austrian public broadcaster ORF. The Austrian Social Democrats (SPÖ) slip to third place with minor losses and must accept their worst result in a National Council election with 21.1 percent. Despite a marginal 0.1 percentage point difference, the SPÖ remains only slightly below the 2019 level.
The liberal NEOS party will make its way into the National Council with 9.2 percent, surpassing the Greens (8.3 percent). The Austrian Greens, who previously participated in the government as part of a coalition with the ÖVP, endure a loss of 5.6 percentage points compared to the previous election, and the ÖVP suffers a loss of 11.2 percentage points. As a result, ÖVP and Greens must accept the most significant losses among all parties compared to the previous election.
The political power dynamics in the Alpine Republic have dramatically changed as a result of this election. Austria is transiting toward the right, with nearly 30 percent for the FPO. The current governing coalition of conservatives and Greens led by Chancellor Karl Nehammer is unable to survive the election in its present form. The voter turnout, according to current statistics, is approximately 78.0 percent.
The identity of the party that will provide the next chancellor remains unclear. Based on the projections from election night, not only FPO and ÖVP together, but also ÖVP and SPÖ, could have a majority in the National Council, although it would be extremely narrow. With the addition of a third coalition partner, conservatives and social democrats would have a solid foundation for forming a government. A coalition with the liberals or the Greens is a possibility.
The ÖVP, which has so far served as the Austrian chancellor's provider through Karl Nehammer, has no intentions of collaborating with the election winner Herbert Kickl from the right-wing FPO in a government under any circumstances. "That remained the case yesterday, it remains the case today, and it will continue to be the case tomorrow," stated ÖVP General Secretary Christian Stocker in an initial reaction.
The FPO has had involvement in the Austrian government as a junior partner in the past, but if the projections prove true and the right-wing populists become the strongest force in the Austrian National Council, it remains uncertain whether the party leader Kickl will succeed in forming a stable majority. For example, Chancellor and ÖVP leader Nehammer has repeatedly ruled out cooperation with Kickl as head of government.
Kickl took charge of the FPO after the "Ibiza gate" corruption scandal in 2021. Through conspiracy theories about corona protection measures, hostile slogans against migrants, and scathing criticism of Austria's assistance to Ukraine in response to Russian aggression, he has garnered support for the FPO.
Kickl made headlines during the election campaign with daring breaches of taboos. He listed "remigration" as one of his political goals, entailing the expulsion of Austrian citizens with non-European roots deemed to have insufficient integration.
FPO leader Herbert Kickl reaffirmed his party's claims to governance. "We are prepared to lead a government," Kickl stated on the evening of the top candidates of the largest parties on Austrian television. The FPO is open to partnerships in all directions, Kickl emphasized.
In addition to the right-wing camp, the Austrian liberals also demonstrated gains in the polls. The party "The New Austria" (NEOS) - which stands for "Freedom, Progress, and Justice" in Austria - is poised to become the new fourth strongest political force in the country ahead of the Greens.
The BIER party and the KPO also displayed increases. However, the BIER party, the KPO, and other small parties failed to enter parliament. Pollsters saw the greatest opportunities for entry into parliament before the election for the Communist Party of Austria (KPO) and the relatively young "Bier party" (BPO). In particular, the BPO, which began as a joke and satire party, enjoyed excellent prospects of surpassing the four-percent threshold in Austria.
Meanwhile, other minor Austrian parties, including the "Madeleine Petrovic List" (LMP), faced challenges surpassing the barriers established by the Austrian electoral system. The LMP is an anti-vaccination group that concentrates on animal welfare and environmental conservation, emerging from public disapproval of government-enforced measures during the COVID-19 pandemic. Their leader, Madeleine Petrovic, served as a Green Party representative in the National Council from 1990 to 2003. Both the LMP, founded in 2022, and the BPO participated in their first National Council election on September 29. As per projections, the "List" garnered 0.6% of the vote with Petrovic leading.
The election day's outcome remained uncertain due to influences like natural disasters, specifically floods, on public sentiment and voting trends. However, it was evident that the government's support was likely to wane among the public early on.
The Austrian National Council shares similarities with the German Bundestag in terms of function within the Alpine Republic's political structure. As the legislative chamber's second body alongside the Austrian Federal Council, the National Council serves as the main organ for legislation and a platform for parliamentary debate.
In Austria, voting process restrictions are implemented during the vote tallying stage. Divided into nine regional electoral districts, the Austrian federal territory is further split into a total of 39 regional electoral districts for the National Council election, according to the Ministry of the Interior in Vienna's explanation.
To be considered for seat allocation, parties must either surpass a specific percentage threshold in at least one of the 39 regional electoral districts or collect more than 4% of nationwide votes in the second stage. The basic mandate's local threshold lies between 20 to 25% of local votes.
Every five years, all 183 seats of the parliamentary body are up for grabs. Eligible voters, including Austrians and Austrian citizens aged 16 and above, constitute approximately 6,346,059 individuals. This figure is marginally lower than the 6,396,799 eligible voters in the 2019 election.
Reviewing Austria: Five years Ago
Approximately 9.2 million people populate the Republic of Austria. The most densely populated regions can be found in the northern and eastern parts of the Alpine Republic. Vienna, with around 2 million inhabitants, and Lower Austria to its east, housing approximately 1.7 million, are the most populous areas. Upper Austria has a population of about 1.5 million to the west, and Styria in the southeast has 1.3 million residents. Together, the remaining five Austrian federal states of Tyrol, Salzburg, Carinthia, Vorarlberg, and Burgenland have 2.6 million inhabitants, accounting for 28.7% of Austria's population.
During the 2019 National Council election, the ÖVP garnered 37.5% of votes, making them the strongest force. The SPÖ followed, having secured 21.2% of the vote. The FPÖ claimed 16.2%, while the Greens maintained consistent support with 13.9% of votes. The NEOS attracted 8.1% of the electorate. The voter turnout in 2019 was 75.6%, lower than the 80.0% turnout seen during the 2017 National Council election.
The Austrian People's Party (ÖVP) and the Freedom Party of Austria (FPO) are both expected to secure significant representation in the Austrian National Council, with the FPO potentially emerging as the dominant force. This could significantly impact the commission's decisions, as the Austrian National Council shares similarities with the German Bundestag and serves as the main organ for legislation and parliamentary debate in Austria.
Regardless of the party compositions, the Austrian National Council, composed of 183 seats, must adhere to specific voting process restrictions during the vote tallying stage, ensuring that only parties surpassing a specific percentage threshold in at least one of the 39 regional electoral districts or collecting more than 4% of nationwide votes enter the parliamentary body.
