Indication suggests a three-party parliament within Saxony's legislature
During the upcoming elections in Saxony and Thuringia, it seems that the right-wing parties, AfD and BSW, are poised for success. According to recent polls, only the CDU, apart from these two, appears to be securely entering parliament in both states.
In the Saxony election, there's a tight race between AfD and CDU, according to a survey. As per a poll by Institut Insa-Consulere commissioned by the "Saxon Times", "Leipzig People's Newspaper", and "Free Press", the leading force in the Free State is still the AfD with 32%, closely followed by the CDU with 30%.
The Alliance Sahra Wagenknecht (BSW) comes third with 15%, pushing other parties to concern about being elected into parliament on September 1st. The current coalition partners of the CDU, Greens, and SPD, might receive around 5% of the votes each. The Linke is at 4%, followed by the FDP with 2%. The poll was conducted online among 1500 eligible voters between June 10th and 17th. The margin of error is approximately 2.7%.
In mid-March, an Insa survey showed a larger gap between AfD and CDU, with the extremist state association receiving 34%, and the Christians Democrats garnering 30%. In January, in a Forsa survey, the AfD even reached 35%, while the CDU came in at 30%.
Similarly, in Thuringia, a Tuesday survey by the Infratest dimap research institute on behalf of MDR for the Thuringia state election on September 1st, reveals a similar trend. In that Free State, the AfD leads with 28%, and together with BSW (21%), they nearly have half of the votes. CDU (23%), SPD (7%), and Linke (11%) combined total up to 41%, while Greens and FDP wouldn't be represented in the parliament.
With all other parties, including BSW, having so far refused to coalition with the AfD, a government with BSW would be the sole option if this result were to occur at present. The CDU hasn't ruled out such a coalition.
It's important to note that surveys come with uncertainties, such as waning party loyalty and short-term voting decisions, which make it challenging for market research institutes to weigh the data accurately. Surveys simply reflect public opinion at the time of the survey and are not predictive of the election outcome.
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In the state elections in Thuringia, the AfD and BSW are also anticipated to perform well, with the AfD leading the polls at 28%, followed by BSW with 21%. This could potentially result in a challenging situation for other parties aiming to enter parliament.
Despite the AfD's success in surveys for the State elections in Thuringia, the CDU is still a contender, garnering 23% of the votes, according to the infratest dimap research institute. This shows a competitive three-party scenario between the AfD, CDU, and BSW in Thuringia's legislature.
The survey results for both Thuringia and Saxony's state elections suggest a three-party dominance in the respective legislatures, with the AfD, CDU, and BSW appearing as key players. The detailed polling data indicates that the AfD is making significant gains, which could potentially influence the election outcomes in both states.
