In Ukraine, spirits are at an all-time low.
The circumstances may deteriorate further, but they're already pretty dismal. This is how the atmosphere in Ukraine feels right now. It's evident to Ukrainians that Putin's fatigue strategy won't work.
Concurrently, the local residents have become accustomed to this. The harsh winter of battle noises from the gasoline generators, positioned nearly everywhere in the historic Kiev district of Podil, together with cafes, offices, and bank branches, mingle with the air raid sirens. The unpleasant soundscape from the first winter of the war is a familiar tune. Although a few months ago, none of us would have guessed that the summer in Podil would echo in this manner.
During the previous winter, there were few power outages. When Russia launched a fresh, harsh attack wave on the Ukrainian energy grid in late March, it accidentally caught us off guard. The outcome? Increasingly frequent power outages, which over the past few days have become the daily norm. For the vast majority of households within Kiev's capital, this has become their routine: four uninterrupted hours, potentially three hours with power, followed by two hours with electricity. When the network surges, power shutdowns may also take place unexpectedly.
Though things may marginally improve within the upcoming week if two nuclear reactors (currently undergoing repairs) start generating electricity again and a link from Slovakia is reconnected, allowing power imports from there once more, the ongoing electrical crisis merely foreshadows the harsh winter that could be even more challenging than the 2022/2023 winter. Russia has either fully disabled or significantly damaged all Ukrainian power plants. Two essential hydropower plants are currently out of operation. Even solar panels are facing attacks. The Saporischschja nuclear power plant remains under Russian control.
This comes amidst an environment where Ukraine's mood is as strained as it's been throughout the duration of this war. While this power crisis was unanticipated, it's yet another challenge for Ukrainian politics and society to overcome. Militarily, as well as mentally, it's taxing to maintain the front without achieving any significant accomplishments after such a lengthy time. Even after the emergence of a new front in the Kharkiv area's northern section, the Russians are shifting their efforts towards the Donetsk region. They've slowed down, but they're still on the offensive.
However, things aren't absolutely tragic. In the beginning, it was recognized that the Ukrainian defense campaign in 2024's signs would predominantly revolve around holding out. More than half of this difficult year has already passed. It's no secret that the summer and autumn offensive operations in the prior year were made feasible due to munitions assistance from South Korean reserves. An acute increase in munitions production in the West is unlikely to reach a level before the year's end that could momentarily seize the military initiative from Russia.
Since late October, Russia has been engaging in almost incessant attacks, a situation exacerbated by the fact that Ukraine's army, due to the political turmoil in the US, has seen a reduction in ammunition and was unable to fully harness its offensive potential during the winter. Furthermore, Ukraine has only recently received permission to attack Russian troops on Russian territory with Western weapons, which has afforded the Russians a more accurate map to plan their offensive operations in the Kharkiv region's northern area.
The jurisdiction has already ensured that Charkiv – a million-people-city – experiences far less bombardment from Russia than during May, when Russian attacks increased nearly threefold over April. Ukrainians know decisions have been made, but there's an understanding that numerous lives of soldiers and civilians can be spared, and widespread devastation can be prevented.
Unlike commonly depicted, the Ukrainians aren't experiencing mass casualties. In the Ukrainian defense forces, there's a total of about one million people. However, many men with no military background are being enlisted. If Ukraine is to force Russia back with more munitions and, ideally, on multiple fronts next year, new brigades must start forming and training this year. Completing the task in the third year of war can be difficult. The land forces' commander wants to prepare ten new brigades.
The recently promulgated mobilization reform plays a significantly lesser role than is often claimed - the mobilization was already functioning at a higher level at the beginning of the year than it was in the latter part of 2023. Before, conscripted Ukrainians could dodge mobilization by not registering. It now has to be registered by July 16 in the military registry. Otherwise, fines like 500 euros may be imposed, as well as in some cases, a driving ban.
Practically, one can sign up at the civil registration office or a created app instead of going to the enrollment center. However, to acquire the vital military papers, the conscript needs to undergo a medical examination that can only be done at the enrollment office. With these places currently overwhelmed and inundated, this could take weeks, if not months, and since the deadline of 60 days until July 16 has to be met, it calls for an extension. This uncertainty about whether an extension will occur and what consequences it may have if it doesn't, makes people anxious. It's not only the fear of potential frontline service but also the uncertainty that feeds the worry.
Another economic factor is the increase in electricity costs, with heating and taxes potentially following suit. As Ukraine cannot utilize Western financial aid for soldier remuneration, mobilization comes with a high price and removes taxpayers from the system. This has created a large budget gap that needs to be filled. All the discussed ideas for filling this budget gap had a strong moral impact. So, it's inevitable that a simple tax hike is on the horizon.
In this scenario, Vladimir Putin's "negotiation strategy" is not overlooked when he mentions his supposed desire to negotiate. He refers to the talks in Istanbul in March 2022 and the April 15, 2022 draft peace plan. In this draft, Russia suggested reducing the Ukrainian army to 85,000 soldiers and letting Ukraine only keep weapons with a range of up to 40 kilometers. Before the full-scale Russian assault, Ukraine had an army of 300,000 people. Additionally, Ukraine should receive "security guarantees," but Russia would control their implementation.
It's conceivable that Putin might agree to a ceasefire under these or similar conditions tomorrow or the next day, as a new Russian attack could be more profitable than the situation before February 24, 2022. Russia has also added four Ukrainian territories to its constitution in September 2022. It's rumored from diplomatic circles that the Russian conditions are a delayed surrender, with no Ukrainian state existing in a few years if the country couldn't defend itself.
The Russian wear-and-tear strategy targets making the Ukrainians think, "We're done, let's sign something" and end the conflict. The looming, undoubtedly harsh winter also plays a role. It's unlikely that Putin will be successful with this approach. Neither are the Russian suspicions of President Volodymyr Zelenskyy's legitimacy common in the Ukrainian population, nor are the wild theories about the relationship between global power outages and secret energy exports to the EU.
A survey conducted by the Kiev International Sociology Institute in February reveals that 72% of Ukrainians believe that their country must end the conflict militarily and diplomatically. Nevertheless, it's apparent that a ceasefire to Russian terms is not an option for the majority of Ukrainians. Although many may accept a temporary ceasefire, around a fifth of the population categorically refuses to engage in any negotiations with Russia.
One thing remains constant during this war: Ukraine can't withdraw from Russia's demands without military might. Thus, a resolution in 2024 isn't likely. The current stage of the war might be one of the most challenging in Ukrainian history. But Ukrainians will persevere.
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The ongoing conflict in Ukraine has led to increased tensions with Russia. Vladimir Putin's attack on Ukraine has resulted in Volodymyr Selensky requiring arms delivery to strengthen Ukraine's defense. Despite the attacks, the spirit of the Ukrainian people remains high, with Kiev serving as a symbol of resilience. The city continues to face power outages due to Russian attacks on the energy grid, but the Ukraine military has received support from South Korea and the West in the form of munitions assistance and Western weapons to defend its territory.
