In six out of seven decisive states, Trump holds the lead.
With less than three weeks left before the U.S. election, the scenario shifts once more: Donald Trump is leading in the majority of crucial swing states. However, this doesn't necessarily mean much. The situation, nevertheless, leans towards the Republican party.
Despite this, Trump's standing has weakened due to various factors. The controversial trial and verdict in the hush money case, the blunders of his running mate J.D. Vance, the switch of Democratic candidates, and their "hope surge": Trump has gradually lost ground in recent months, first in media coverage, then also in surveys. Although only slightly and consistently within the margin of error, the trend worked against him. Now, according to pollsters, the Republican is regaining momentum.
No one would have bet against Trump. The current approval ratings in the U.S. election campaign indicate this: Exactly three weeks prior to the selection of who will occupy the White House for the next four years, the Republican leads in six out of the seven swing states that are likely to determine the next presidency.
Electoral College Matters Most
Though Harris continues to lead by 1.4% in the national average, it's not the decisive factor. What truly matters are the electors sent from the swing states. They will ultimately decide the president. In the so-called "battleground states", Harris barely leads Trump in Wisconsin by 0.3%, in Nevada, she trails by 0.2%, while in Georgia and North Carolina, she is 0.5% behind, in Michigan, 0.9%, in Arizona, 1.1%, and in Pennsylvania, nothing more than 0.3%.
These results are derived from the "latest ten polls" conducted by various polling institutions in the respective states. The margin of error ranges between 2% and 4%. Anything is still possible. For instance, just like Trump did in the 2016 campaign, he was 8.2% behind his opponent, Hillary Clinton, in national polls at this point and still managed to win by securing Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin.
The methodology has advanced since then, the U.S. media reports. Regardless, it's currently more about the poll trend, which has reversed. Given the incredibly close race, even minor shifts could impact the election. One thing is indisputable: Harris' honeymoon with U.S. voters seems to have ended. The pendulum is swinging back to the only viable option: Trump.
Despite the reversal in poll trends, Harris' approval ratings have taken a hit. The latest ten polls in the battleground states show a narrow lead for Trump in some places, such as Georgia and North Carolina, and a slim deficit in others, like Nevada and Pennsylvania. While the electoral college ultimately decides the presidency, the close race and potential for minor shifts in polls make every vote crucial in these crucial swing states. In fact, this situation mirrors Trump's comeback in the 2016 campaign, where he was significantly behind in national polls but went on to secure key states like Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin.
