- In Saxony, the CDU and the AfD are tightly contending – BSW maintains a significant presence.
In the Saxony state elections, the CDU and the AfD are battling it out for the top spot. According to ARD and ZDF forecasts, Minister President Michael Kretschmer's CDU is seeing a slight decrease from its 2019 results, while the AfD is experiencing an uptick. However, no other parties are interested in collaborating with the AfD. Sahra Wagenknecht's Stand Up! (BSW) is sitting in third place, with the SPD a significant distance behind. The Greens are on the brink of missing out on entering the state parliament, while The Left is struggling to surpass the five percent threshold and could potentially be eliminated from parliament.
The projections (6 PM) indicate the CDU at 31.5 to 32 percent (2019: 32.1 percent), with the AfD closely following at 30.0 to 31.5 percent (27.5). The BSW is polling at 11.5 to 12 percent. The SPD is at 7.5 to 8.5 percent (7.7), while The Left is experiencing a major decline at 4.0 to 4.5 percent (10.4), falling below the five percent threshold. The Greens are also at risk, polling at 5.0 to 5.5 percent (8.6). The FDP is once again failing to make it into the state parliament, as they did in the previous two elections. However, parties that fail to garner more than five percent can still enter parliament if they manage to secure two direct mandates.
The AfD, classified by the Saxon Office for the Protection of the Constitution as a secure right-wing extremist party, is projected to win 41 to 43 seats (38), with the CDU projected to win 43 to 44 seats (45). The BSW is projected to win 16 seats. The SPD is projected to win 10 to 12 seats (10), with the Greens winning 7 to 8 seats (12).
Approximately 3.3 million citizens were eligible to vote.
CDU might consider an alliance with BSW
Since reunification, the CDU has consistently provided the state's head of government, most recently Kretschmer, who has been in office since 2019 as part of a coalition with the Greens and SPD. To maintain power, the CDU would barely scrape by with the current coalition, according to ZDF projections, but not according to ARD projections. Another option would be for the CDU to be backed by the BSW and another partner.
However, BSW leader Wagenknecht was previously a member of the SED and later became a symbol of the communist platform within The Left, which makes many CDU politicians uncomfortable. Despite this, a coalition is possible, as the CDU has a non-affiliation decision preventing it from coalition with the AfD or The Left, but not the BSW.
Before the election, the Greens accused the CDU and SPD of planning for a joint minority government. CDU and SPD have previously coalitioned three times in Saxony.
The AfD has bested the Union in Saxony before, in two federal elections and one European election. If it wins more than a third of the state parliament seats, it would have a so-called blocking minority, meaning that its support would be necessary for decisions and elections requiring a two-thirds majority, such as the election of constitutional judges.
The election campaign was intense, with one of the main points of contention being Russia's invasion of Ukraine and Germany's role as Kiev's ally and within NATO. Wagenknecht stated that for the BSW to participate in a government, it must firmly oppose the deployment of long-range US missiles in Germany.
Further sharpness was introduced into the debate about asylum and migration with the knife attack in Solingen resulting in three fatalities, which the Federal Prosecutor's Office attributes to a suspected Islamist Syrian who entered Germany as a refugee.
Furthermore, there have been several attacks on politicians and election helpers in Saxony in recent months, such as the case of SPD politician Matthias Ecke, who was severely assaulted at the beginning of May while campaigning for the European election in Dresden.
In light of the potential coalition-building needs after the elections, the CDU might consider an alliance with The Alliance Sahra, given their projected seat numbers and the CDU's non-affiliation policy towards The Left and the AfD. Despite Sahra Wagenknecht's communist past, such a coalition remains a possibility due to the CDU's non-affiliation decision.
Recent events, such as the attacks on politicians and election helpers in Saxony, have added a new layer of complexity to the election debates, potentially influencing the final vote counts and affecting potential coalition possibilities.
