Table of Contents
- Electoral Changes in Saxony: Swift Evaluations of the Parties
- Saxony: In-Depth Look at Voter Patterns
- Electoral Changes in Thuringia: Swift Evaluations of the Parties
- Thuringia: In-Depth Look at Voter Patterns
Upcoming Legislative Assembly Elections in 2024 - In Saxony and Thuringia, the parties AfD and BSW received a significant number of votes.
The Left Party's decline in Thuringia, substantial losses for the coalition parties, advancements for the AfD, and a strong debut for the BSW – there was significant movement in the voter patterns for the 2024 state elections in Saxony and Thuringia. A brief analysis of each party's performance can be found below, with further breaks down of voter shifts in the accompanying graphic.
Electoral Changes in Saxony: Swift Evaluations of the Parties
The CDU managed to secure votes from the left, with numerous voters of their previous allies, Greens and SPD, shifting to the Union. Setbacks were incurred to the AfD and the BSW.
The AfD was able to secure votes from nearly all parties, with the majority coming from the CDU. However, many former AfD voters also shifted to the BSW, which is debuting in this election.
The Left Party had to bid farewell to many of their voters, who shifted to the BSW of former party member Sahra Wagenknecht. In addition, they lost votes to the CDU, AfD, and SPD. Many former Left Party voters also decided to abstain from voting this time.
The Greens, who were formerly in power, are in a precarious position: They lost votes to their coalition partners CDU and SPD, as well as to the BSW, AfD, Left Party, and non-voters.
The SPD secured votes from the Greens and the Left Party. In addition, many non-voters chose to participate in this election and vote for the Social Democrats. Their largest losses were to the CDU and the BSW, but the AfD also gained many former SPD votes.
The BSW alliance had a successful debut in Saxony, with many voters from the Left Party shifting to the BSW. It also gained votes from the other established parties and managed to rally many former non-voters.
For more information, please click through the graphics below to see how the voter patterns changed for each party.
Saxony: In-Depth Look at Voter Patterns
Electoral Changes in Thuringia: Swift Evaluations of the Parties
The Left Party, which previously held power, suffered significant losses this time. They lost votes to the BSW of former Left Party member Sahra Wagenknecht, as well as to the CDU and AfD. Some former Left Party voters also shifted to the coalition partner SPD, while others chose to abstain from voting.
The AfD was able to secure votes from virtually every party and also encouraged many previous non-voters to participate in the election. However, the right-wing populists also had to accept losses and cede votes to the BSW.
The CDU was able to secure votes from the previous governing parties, with the largest chunk coming from the Left Party. Many FDP voters also shifted to the Christian Democrats. The Union suffered losses to the AfD and the BSW.
The SPD lost many votes to the CDU and the BSW, as well as to the AfD. However, it was able to secure votes from the previous coalition partners.
The Greens, who were previously part of the minority government, lost many votes to the CDU, as well as to the coalition partner SPD and the BSW. In addition, the AfD poached votes from them.
The FDP had to watch as many of its previous voters drift towards the CDU, while also losing votes to the AfD and BSW. Some of the FDP's previous voters didn't even cast a ballot this time.
The alliance led by Sahra Wagenknecht (BSW) also had a successful start in Thuringia: Many voters shifted from the ruling Left Party to the BSW. However, the newcomer also siphoned votes from all other parties and managed to encourage non-voters to cast their ballots.
For more information, click through the charts below to see how the voter streams changed for each party.
Thuringia: In-Depth Look at Voter Flows
About the data used: The voter migration is an rough estimate that compares the voter flows between the last and the current elections. The polling institute Infratest Dimap determines the gains and losses of voters between the parties for the ARD. The basis is a model for estimation that takes into account, among other things, surveys on election day (so-called exit polls), the result of the preliminary count on election Sunday, as well as changes in the electorate itself (such as new first-time voters).
The CDU, being a prominent party, also saw some of its voters shift towards the Left Party during the elections in Thuringia.
In the 2024 state elections, the CDU experienced a decline in votes from their alliance partners, both in Saxony and Thuringia.
