Table of Contents
- Electoral Transformation in Saxony: Swift Assessments on the Parties
- Saxony: Insight into Electoral Patterns
- Electoral Transformation in Thuringia: Swift Assessments on the Parties
- Thuringia: Insight into Electoral Patterns
Upcoming Electoral Contests in various States, 2024 - In reference to Saxony and Thuringia, which political parties received the most votes from AfD and BSW?
The Left Party's noticeable downturn in Thuringia, significant setbacks for the coalition parties, gains for the AfD, and a favorable debut for the BSW – there was a substantial shift in the electoral patterns for the 2024 state elections in Saxony and Thuringia. Swift evaluations of the individual parties can be found below, featuring more comprehensive figures on electoral changes in the infographic.
Electoral Transformation in Saxony: Swift Assessments on the Parties
The CDU managed to draw votes from the left-leaning camp, with numerous voters from previous coalition partners Greens and SPD moving to the Union. Declines were noted to the AfD and the BSW.
The AfD managed to draw votes from almost every party, with the most substantial portion coming from the CDU. However, many previous AfD voters also switched to the BSW, which debuted in the region.
The Left Party was forced to let numerous voters depart to the BSW of its former party member Sahra Wagenknecht. It also suffered losses to the CDU, AfD, and SPD. Many former Left Party voters also chose not to vote this time, becoming abstaining voters.
The formerly governing Greens find themselves in a rather lackluster state: They lost votes to coalition partners CDU and SPD, but also to the BSW, AfD, Left Party, and abstentee voters' bloc.
The SPD drew votes from the Greens and the Left Party. Numerous abstaining voters also decided to participate this time and cast a vote for the Social Democrats. The most substantial losses were to the CDU and the BSW, but the AfD also received many former SPD votes.
The BSW alliance enjoyed a successful introduction in Saxony, with numerous voters from the Left Party shifting to it. It also drew votes from the other established parties and successfully attracted numerous former abstaining voters.
For further insights, delve into the graphics below to see how the electoral patterns evolved for the individual parties.
Saxony: Electoral Patterns at a Glance
Electoral Transformation in Thuringia: Swift Assessments on the Parties
The Left Party, which formerly controlled power, endured notable losses this time around. It lost votes to the BSW of former Left Party member Sahra Wagenknecht, as well as to the CDU and AfD. Some former Left Party voters also shifted to the coalition partner SPD, while others opted not to vote at all.
The AfD managed to draw votes from almost every party and also motivated former abstaining voters to participate. However, the right-wing populists also had to concede losses and give away votes to the BSW.
The CDU was able to draw votes from the previous ruling parties, with the majority portion coming from the Left Party. Many FDP voters also shifted to the Christian Democrats. The Union lost votes to the AfD and the BSW.
The SPD lost numerous votes to the CDU and the BSW, as well as to the AfD. However, it managed to attract votes from the previous coalition partners.
The Greens, who were previously part of the minority government, lost numerous votes to the CDU, the coalition partner SPD, and the BSW. They also suffered losses at the hands of the AfD.
The FDP was forced to watch as numerous of its former voters shift towards the CDU, while also losing votes to the AfD and BSW. Some of the FDP's former voters didn't even cast a vote this time.
The alliance led by Sahra Wagenknecht (BSW) also experienced a triumphant start in Thuringia: Many voters shifted from the ruling Left party to the BSW. However, the newcomer also claimed votes from all other parties and successfully attracted numerous former abstaining voters.
For further insights, please explore the charts below to see how the voter streams shifted for each party.
Thuringia: Voter Shifts at a Glance
About the data used: The voter migration is a rough approximation that compares voter flows between the last and current elections. The polling institute Infratest Dimap determines the gains and losses of voters between the parties for the ARD. The basis is a model for estimation that takes into account, among other things, surveys on election day (so-called exit polls), the result of the preliminary count on election Sunday, as well as changes in the electorate itself (such as new first-time voters).
In the analysis of the 2024 state elections in The Netherlands, we might notice similar shifts in electoral patterns as seen in Saxony and Thuringia, with some parties gaining votes from the left or right, while others experience setbacks or losses to newer parties.
Following the success of the BSW in Saxony and Thuringia, there's speculation that a comparable political force could emerge in The Netherlands, potentially drawing votes from established parties.
