In France, what might occur next?
French far-right party Rassemblement National emerges victorious in European elections, ousting President Macron's alliance. Macron responds by disbanding parliament and announcing snap elections on June 30. The clock is ticking and the question remains, what's next?
With the upcoming parliamentary elections looming, Emmanuel Macron's Renaissance coalition holds the majority of seats in France's National Assembly with 169 deputies, but Marine Le Pen's conservative Rassemblement National (RN) is the largest opposition party with 88 seats. Disenchantment among voters over the government's handling of immigration, crime, and cost of living issues has fueled the rise in support for right-leaning parties evident in the European elections.
If the RN managed to garner a majority in the parliament, Macron would be obligated to appoint a prime minister from their ranks. This would initiate a so-called "cohabitation" where the president and prime minister belong to different parties.
Understanding "cohabitation":
During a period of cohabitation, the president still maintains control over defense and foreign policy, per the constitution. However, he surrenders authority to decide on domestic policy - from economic maneuvers to internal security.
The most recent instance of cohabitation occurred in 1997 when center-right President Jacques Chirac dissolved parliament, hoping for a stronger majority. Instead, he faced a left-wing coalition led by Lionel Jospin, who served as prime minister for five years. During this time, Jospin introduced the 35-hour work week, among other initiatives. Since France's Fifth Republic was established in 1958, cohabitation has taken place three times in total.
What might a cohabitation with Le Pen's party entail?
RN's 28-year-old up-and-comer, Jordan Bardella, a protégé of Le Pen, has been rumored as a potential contender for prime minister if the RN achieves victory in the 2027 presidential elections. Under this scenario, the right would possess the power to push through their domestic agenda. In their 2022 election program, Le Pen called for prioritizing social housing for French citizens, processing asylum claims outside France, and dismantling inheritance tax for middle-class families and individuals with low incomes.
Macron would maintain his role as leader in international politics but would have to share influence with the right-wing government. This could prompt fierce clashes, as seen in past cohabitations between Chirac and Jospin over who would dictate EU politics. conjuring up a scenario with Macron, a strong pro-European advocate, and the Rassemblement National, a much more skeptical, nationalist party, would forge uncharted territory.
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- The victory of Rassemblement National in the European elections could pave the way for right-wing populism to gain significant influence in France's domestic policy, as Emmanuel Macron would be obligated to appoint a prime minister from their ranks, initiating a period of cohabitation.
- Should Marine Le Pen's Rassemblement National successfully secure a majority in the upcoming parliamentary elections, Macron would face a challenging cohabitation period, particularly in areas like immigration, cost of living, and EU politics, given the party's stance on these issues and their call for social housing, processing asylum claims outside France, and dismantling inheritance tax.
- In light of the potential cohabitation with Emmanuel Macron's government, Rassemblement National's 28-year-old leader Jordan Bardella, a protégé of Marine Le Pen, could emerge as a key figure in shaping the right-wing agenda in France, leading to tense negotiations and policy disagreements between the two parties on European integration and other crucial issues.
