In a CNN survey, Harris and Trump are evenly matched in North Carolina, while Vice President Harris takes the lead in Nebraska's 2nd Congressional District.
The survey conducted in North Carolina shows that scandal-tainted Lt. Gov. Mark Robinson is lagging behind his Democratic opponent in the gubernatorial race, with a substantial margin. This scenario could have significant implications for both President Joe Biden and former President Donald Trump in their quest to secure the required 270 electoral votes to win the presidency.
North Carolina, with its close ties to both parties, and Nebraska's 2nd District, known as the "blue dot," could be determinative in either candidate's victory. If Trump fails to retain North Carolina – a state where he achieved his narrowest victory margin in 2020 – and manages to win Nebraska's 2nd District, Harris could potentially forge a path towards victory through the northern "blue wall" states, even if she is unsuccessful in the Sun Belt battlegrounds.
In North Carolina, both Harris and Trump are holding steady at 48% each among likely voters. Conversely, in Nebraska's 2nd District, Harris enjoys a sizeable lead of 53% to Trump's 42%, the poll indicates.
Democrats aim to return North Carolina to competitive status, having previously leaned towards Barack Obama's victory in 2008, but subsequently supporting Republican candidates in subsequent elections. Nebraska, as one of the two states to split its Electoral College votes, with two votes awarded to the statewide winner and the remaining three votes to the winner of each congressional district, has historically favored Republican presidential candidates. However, its 2nd District has consecutively voted for the Democratic nominee in 2008 and 2020.
The majority of North Carolina voters have already made their decisions, and a substantial proportion of registered voters for each major candidate express extreme enthusiasm for their chosen candidate, not out of resentment towards their opponent, but as a show of support. A considerable 12% of likely voters in North Carolina claim they may still be swayed by their decision, making a potential impact in a close race.
At present, Trump holds a lead among White likely voters in North Carolina, 58% to 39%, although this margin is narrower than his advantage over Biden among White voters in the 2020 election. Interestingly, White voters with college degrees prefer Harris over Trump by a wide margin, marking a shift compared to the narrow margin four years ago.
Harris leads Trump among Black likely voters by a substantial 79% to 11% margin in North Carolina, although this margin is slightly lower than Biden's win among Black voters in 2020. This disparity does not necessarily reflect an increase in support for Trump, but rather a moderate portion of Black likely voters favoring third-party candidates or remaining uncertain about their choice.
Males in North Carolina lean slightly towards Trump (51% to 45%) while Harris maintains a slight edge among females (50% to 46%). However, the gender gap is less pronounced than indicated in the most recent national survey.
In the North Carolina governor's race, Democrat Josh Stein holds a substantial lead over Robinson, the Lieutenant Governor, with 53% to 36% among likely voters. Robinson, who has faced backlash following CNN's revelation of inflammatory comments made on a porn website, is viewed negatively by a majority of likely voters in North Carolina (27% favorable, 53% unfavorable, 20% neutral). In contrast, Stein, the North Carolina Attorney General, is seen more positively (40% favorable, 23% unfavorable, 36% neutral), despite relative obscurity. The survey was conducted post-CNN report.
Robinson faces substantial defections from Republican and Republican-leaning likely voters in North Carolina, with 72% supporting him, 14% favoring Stein, and 12% declining to vote for either candidate. In contrast, Stein has managed to secure relatively unanimous support among Democratic-allied likely voters, with 95% backing him.
In Nebraska's 2nd District, the poll reveals Harris' strong lead survives even among Republican likely voters, with 60% supporting her. Harris also holds an advantage among independent likely voters and among both women and men.
Six out of ten likely voters in Nebraska's 2nd District favor retaining the state's current system for awarding electoral votes, with 40% advocating a winner-take-all system. Democrats and independents in the district predominantly back maintaining the current system, while Republicans lean towards switching to a winner-take-all system.
Harris is edging ahead of the Democratic nominee in the race to represent Nebraska's 2nd District in Congress, with Democrat Tony Vargas holding a slight lead over incumbent Republican Rep. Don Bacon, 50% to 44%. Vargas, a state senator, fared poorly in the 2022 election, where the GOP clinched a narrow majority in the US House of Representatives nationwide.
In North Carolina, most probable voters favor Harris over Trump when it comes to unifying the nation (44% vs 35%), making them proud as president (46% vs 40%), and showing concern for their kind of people (46% vs 42%). They're equally divided about whether Harris or Trump better aligns with their view on the nation's biggest problems, and evenly split on who would bring change (44% Trump, 42% Harris) or has a clear strategy to solve the country's issues (42% Trump, 39% Harris).
A majority of North Carolina's likely voters (52%) believe Trump's beliefs and policies are too extreme, though only 45% think they're so radical they jeopardize the country. Fewer perceive Harris' policies as a significant threat (35%).
Trump leads on trust to manage the economy in North Carolina, and has the support on crime and safety issues (by 7 points) and immigration (by 11 points). However, Harris has the edge on safeguarding democracy (by 4 points) and handling abortion and reproductive rights (by 11 points). The economy remains the primary concern in the presidential race for a majority of voters.
In Nebraska's 2nd District, Trump experiences a decline on his traditionally strong issues: the district's likely voters are divided between him and Harris on the economy and immigration, and give Harris the lead on crime and safety (by 6 points), democracy protection (by 14 points), and handling abortion and reproductive rights (by 21 points).
A significant portion of the district's likely voters (57%) perceive Trump as too extreme, and nearly half (51%) believe his extremism poses a threat. Fewer see Harris' policies as overly radical (36%).
Harris also leads as the candidate North Carolina and Nebraska's 2nd District voters think would unite the country, make them proud, and care about them. The margin is smaller on the remaining attributes tested in the survey.
Biden's approval rating hovers around 44% in Nebraska's 2nd District and 41% in North Carolina among likely voters. However, a larger portion of dissatisfied North Carolina voters support Harris (14%) compared to Nebraska's 2nd District (20%).
Overall, a vast majority of likely voters in both place express some confidence that their state's votes will be accurately counted in the election. However, confidence is notably higher in Nebraska's 2nd District (59%) compared to North Carolina (41%).
The partisan divide in election confidence is also smaller in Nebraska's 2nd District. While Harris supporters are 33 points more likely in Nebraska to express high confidence in their state's election system, that increases to a 52-point divide between each candidate's supporters in North Carolina.
Polling was conducted between September 20-25, 2024, among registered voters in North Carolina (931) and Nebraska's 2nd District (749). Likely voters include those weighted for their predicted likelihood of voting in this year's election, with respective sampling errors of plus or minus 3.9% and 4% in North Carolina and Nebraska's 2nd District.
CNN reporters Jennifer Agiesta and Edward Wu contributed to this report.
In the context of the presidential election and the Electoral College votes, North Carolina and Nebraska's 2nd District could significantly impact both President Joe Biden and former President Donald Trump's chances of securing 270 electoral votes. (politics)
Political analysts have noted that Harris leads among likely voters in Nebraska's 2nd District, which has historically favored Republican presidential candidates but consistently voted for the Democratic nominee in recent elections. (politics)
