IfW deems the Federal Government's defense spending as utterly insufficient.
The experts argue that the federal government's military spending is insufficient, given the rising threat from Russia. As per the Kiel Institute for the World Economy, despite the talk of a turning point, Germany's military capabilities still lag behind Russia's, with the gap widening even further. They suggest maintaining a minimum defense budget of at least 100 billion euros permanently.
Guntram Wolff, the study's author, points out that the federal government is struggling to replace the weapons being sent to Ukraine, and Germany's stockpiles of air defense systems and artillery howitzers have actually decreased.
The researchers estimate that to reach the 2004 levels of the Bundeswehr for certain weapon systems, Germany would need approximately a century. This is due to the disarmament of previous decades and the "overly gradual and frugal" buildup under the current coalition government, as explained by the IfW. The coalition's defense policy is perceived as lacking ambition.
There's a lack of incentives for the arms industry to expand its capacities, and it's uncertain how much budget will be allocated for defense after the 100 billion euro special fund is exhausted. "Long-term planning and an efficient procurement system are key to building industrial capacities," Wolff explained. Germany needs to maintain its defense spending at a minimum of two percent of its GDP permanently.
On the other hand, Russia's military strength continues to grow. Its production capacities are now substantial enough to manufacture the entire Bundeswehr's inventory in just over half a year. Since the 2022 Ukraine attack, Russia has significantly boosted its production capabilities for critical weapon systems, the researchers noted. Their long-range air defense capabilities have doubled, and their tank numbers have tripled.
Given the strain on Germany's defense expenditures due to supporting Ukraine, there's a growing concern about the expenditure required to upgrade its military capabilities. As a result, maintaining a consistent defense budget beyond the 100 billion euro special fund becomes crucial.
