How will the Democrats' election campaign continue?
## The Old Man and the White House
Despite being 81 years old, President Biden still feels capable of handling his duties - or at least that's what he communicates externally. However, doubts about his candidacy are growing louder. It's now up to him to decide what's next for the USA. Several scenarios are possible.
Four years ago, Joe Biden said this sentence: "I see myself as a bridge, as nothing else." There was an entire generation of leadership figures coming after him. "They are the future of this country." At the time, Biden was still a campaigner, eventually becoming the oldest President in US history to move into the White House.
Today, the focus of the 81-year-old seems not to be quite as much on the new generation as the future of the country - but rather on himself. The Democrat wants to be re-elected in November - once again to defeat the Republican Donald Trump. There's no doubt about that.
The Old Man and the White House
The fact that his age could be a problem for him was never a secret. Awkward gaffes, stumbles, and forgetfulness during Biden's appearances have been part of the routine for the US President for a long time. When he announced last year that he would run again for the Democrats and extend his term by four years, it was already clear: Biden's age and the debate about his condition would be his biggest problem in the campaign.
For a long time, Biden's party, his political allies, and above all his staff tried to hide his age-related weaknesses and highlight his political achievements. They emphasized Biden's rich experience.
Biden's disastrous performance in the TV debate against Trump, however, resembles a turning point: Suddenly, it was clear to everyone - and in painful clarity - how things stand with the man who insists he can lead the USA for another four years.
NATO Summit Becomes a Test
In the coming week, there will be a NATO summit in Washington - supposedly a welcome opportunity for Biden to showcase himself and his leadership skills as the leader of the West. The fact that the grand anniversary summit falls in the hot phase of the US election campaign in Washington is likely no coincidence.
However, the NATO meeting and the planned closing press conference now seem more like a test. Every move by the Democrat is closely watched. A nimble performance alongside foreign heads of state and governments could strengthen Biden's position. Above all, the question hovers: Is Biden capable of doing the job for another four years? The Democrats need an answer - and soon. After all, the election is only four months away. What could happen then?
Scenario 1: Biden Drops Out of the Presidential Race Soon
Biden could announce his withdrawal from the presidential race in the coming days. The important NATO summit would be completely overshadowed. If Biden waited until after the defense alliance's meeting, the world would only have to look on in disappointment and anticipation at a speaker and a stumbler. Originally, the summit was supposed to be about the Ukraine war and strengthening the deterrence and defense capabilities of the alliance.
In every case: The chance that Trump will move back into the White House after the election has grown significantly since Biden's TV debacle, according to polls. The Republican has built up his lead over Biden. The affiliated parties must reckon with the fact that the leader of the western world will soon no longer be Biden.
Middle- or long-term commitments of the USA should be approached with caution - and Biden might in the current chaotic situation look a bit like a lame duck. If Biden is clearly losing, there are still roughly one and a half months until the Democrats' convention in Chicago. Biden is supposed to be officially declared the candidate of his party there - he has already amassed the necessary delegate votes in the primaries. Therefore, only he himself can decide what happens next.
If Biden were to withdraw from the race soon, there would be enough time for an intraparty fight for the succession of the 81-year-old. Biden would have to take a clear stance behind his vice president Kamala Harris to reduce the chances of a dirty power struggle. The lines would then be drawn, and the Democrats could focus on their political opponent Trump. If it were Harris who took the lead, she could potentially tap into the millions in campaign funds collected in Biden and Harris' names during the campaign. In the case of another candidate, that would not be so simple.
Scenario 2: Biden drops out before or during the convention
If Biden were to wait for weeks to clarify things, that could be a painful time for him and the party. The Democrats could continue to lose ground in the polls, and more major donors could withdraw their support.
What Biden would certainly achieve with such a move, however, is pressure for a quick decision. The party would have to come to an agreement in a few days or even hours. There would be little time for public positioning. Numerous election scenarios, accompanied by intense lobbying from the candidates, would be possible.
Besides Harris as an alternative, the governor of California, Gavin Newsom, and the governor of Michigan, Gretchen Whitmer, are mentioned as options. The convention in Chicago would undoubtedly go down in history.
Scenario 3: Biden drops out after the convention
If Biden changes his mind after the Chicago convention, the decision would fall to a party committee with several hundred members. Party loyalists might take offense if the decision were made in such a small circle. For positioning the successor in the campaign, there would be little time left.
In the states, there are also deadlines for when parties must certify their candidates to appear on the ballot. If Biden were to wait until after the convention, some of these deadlines could have already passed.
It is unclear whether Harris, who is also on the ballot as vice president, would receive Biden's votes if she were to become a presidential candidate. Conservative groups have already announced that they would take legal action against this.
It's possible that Biden insists on staying in the race and doesn't give in to the pressure. Surveys show Trump leading in particularly contested states that neither the Republicans nor Democrats can claim for certain. This doesn't mean Biden will lose in November. But it is a very realistic option. Trump would be pleased if he could continue to work on his well-known opponent.
The difficult situation of the Democrats must be a burden for Biden. The seven-time grandfather claimed several times that he is the most qualified person for the job and the only one who can beat Trump. However, it doesn't look that way now.
Partisans might be put off by Biden's stubbornness: What some see as a sign of strength, others perceive as dangerous stubbornness. Biden himself often says that the election is about nothing less than democracy in the USA.
- Michelle Obama, a former First Lady of the USA, has not expressed any interest in running for the 2024 US presidential election, despite some speculations.
- Joe Biden's re-election bid is facing opposition from the Republicans, with Donald Trump leading the charge in the polls for the Republican nomination in the 2024 US presidential election.
- If Joe Biden were to step down before the Democrats' convention in Chicago, it would trigger a heated intraparty battle for the 2024 US presidential election nomination, with Kamala Harris being one of the contenders.
- The 2024 US presidential election is a high-stakes race for both the Democrats, led by Joe Biden, and the Republicans, led by Donald Trump, with several other politicians also vying for the position, such as Kamala Harris and potential candidates like Gavin Newsom and Gretchen Whitmer.
