How the Gaza war is also becoming a domestic political crisis for Biden
The message to Joe Biden is unmistakable: no ceasefire in Gaza, no votes in the election. The open letter that the National Council of Muslim Democrats sent to the US President a few days ago was headed with the word "ultimatum". If Biden did not achieve a ceasefire in the Gaza war by the next day, he would lose votes from Muslims across the country - the alliance would see to that. The deadline passed without the blunt threat succeeding.
There is no sign of a ceasefire in the war between Israel and Hamas. And for Biden, the conflict is increasingly becoming a domestic crisis as well as a foreign policy one.
Some may dismiss the ultimatum letter as a provocation from a rather small party organization. However, it is an example of a larger problem: Biden is under increasing pressure from various sides in the Middle East conflict and is in a political quandary that could become dangerous for him with a view to the election in a year's time.
Biden's course
Since the devastating attack on Israel by Islamist Hamas on October 7, Biden has stood firmly by the Israeli government. In the worst massacre in the country's history, more than 1,400 people were killed on the Israeli side and more than 200 forcibly displaced. Since then, the Israeli military has been bombing the Gaza Strip, where Hamas holds sway. Israeli ground troops are also advancing into the densely populated coastal area - with the aim of crushing Hamas. The victims are the residents of Gaza. According to the Hamas-controlled Ministry of Health, more than 10,000 Palestinians have already lost their lives.
The number cannot be independently verified. But the world sees harrowing images from Gaza every day. Of streets reduced to rubble; of bodies being pulled from the rubble; of children covered in blood with torn bodies; of desperate people in emergency shelters. With every picture and every day, the pressure on Biden to campaign for a ceasefire and not to stand unconditionally by the side of Israel's government grows.
Biden and his administration are trying to adopt an increasingly nuanced tone, calling for the protection of civilians, repeatedly describing the suffering of the people in Gaza and advocating temporary ceasefires. However, the US government has so far vehemently opposed a general ceasefire, arguing that this would only play into the hands of Hamas. So far, Biden has also refrained from publicly criticizing Israel's actions or pointing out red lines for its partner. After an unprecedented attack like the one by Hamas, the USA must be there for Israel without reservation, he says.
Protests on the streets
Critics complain that the US government is achieving nothing with gentle appeals to Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu - Biden must exert his influence and not stand idly by and watch the suffering of the Palestinians. It is boiling everywhere: among Democrats in the party, in Congress, in the government, in social groups, among political donors and above all among voters.
At the weekend, tens of thousands of pro-Palestinian demonstrators took to the streets of Washington to demand a ceasefire. A few days earlier, demonstrators repeatedly interrupted a hearing with US Secretary of State Antony Blinken in the Senate. They also called for a ceasefire and chanted that the American people were not prepared to finance Israel's brutal war.
Resistance in government and party
In the meantime, civil servants in Biden's government apparatus are organizing themselves and voicing their opposition to the president's line in internal letters. Government employees say behind closed doors that they are at odds with Biden's course. A senior Foreign Ministry official publicly resigned and declared that he could no longer support the "blind support for one side". A younger employee of the State Department made headlines when she publicly accused Biden on Platform X of being complicit in a "genocide" against the Palestinians.
Left-wing Democrats in the House of Representatives have been calling for a ceasefire for weeks, with Democrat Dick Durbin being the first senator to join them. Dozens of employees in the Democratic party apparatus also sent a letter to Biden calling for a ceasefire.
Lack of understanding among Muslims
Muslim and Arab groups are also exerting pressure. The Council on American-Islamic Relations, for example, called on Biden to stop the "madness" in Gaza. It was "unacceptable" that the government was not calling for a ceasefire. Representatives of the organization threatened to withdraw Biden's support in the election.
The National Council of Muslim Democrats also announced in its ultimatum that it would urge Muslim and Arab voters to "refuse to vote for any candidate who does not support a ceasefire". And: "We emphasize the importance of Michigan, Ohio, Iowa, Florida, Arizona, Nevada, Georgia, New Jersey, Pennsylvania and Tennessee, where many of our voters live."
According to estimates, around 3.5 million Muslims live in the USA - that is only around one percent of the population. However, the American electoral system means that the presidential election in early November 2024 could once again be decided by comparatively few votes in just a few states. In such "swing states", which are highly contested between Democrats and Republicans, Biden cannot afford to alienate individual groups of voters. According to polls, Biden has actually lost some support among Arab and Muslim voters in recent weeks. And the issue has long been stirring up other groups, especially younger ones.
Some Jewish voters, on the other hand, who want unrestricted American support, could feel repelled by the internal divisions within the Democrats with regard to the Gaza war. In short, Biden can hardly please anyone on the domestic front.
Foreign policy dangers
In terms of foreign policy, on the other hand, all the progress his government has made so far in the Middle East is falling apart. What's more, the Gaza war threatens to degenerate into a major conflict. Attacks by pro-Iranian militias against US forces in Iraq and Syria have increased significantly in recent weeks. The US military is attempting to act as a deterrent by deploying equipment and hundreds of soldiers to the region to prevent the US from sliding into a new war shortly before the election. The election is still twelve months away - an eternity in political time. But depending on how things develop, the Middle East conflict could play a major role in the election.
Biden's political situation was not easy even before the Gaza war. The oldest US president of all time, who will soon be 81, has long been struggling with poor popularity ratings and reservations due to his advanced age. Even among party colleagues, there is therefore a lack of enthusiasm for his re-election campaign - and even within the Democratic Party, no one seems really sure whether Biden can win the election in November 2024. The escalation in the Middle East has made his situation much more difficult.
- Despite Biden's firm support for Israel, calls for a ceasefire in Gaza are growing louder, with some critics claiming that gentle appeals to Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu are not enough. Protesters in Washington and other parts of the US have taken to the streets, demanding a halt to the violence and expressing concern over the suffering of Palestinians.
- The pressure on Biden to intervene is not just coming from the streets; it's also coming from within his own government. Civil servants and politicians within the Democratic Party are voicing their opposition to Biden's stance, with some going so far as to accuse him of complicity in a genocide against the Palestinians.
- The negotiations between Israel and Hamas are not only a foreign policy issue for Biden, but also a domestic political one. The National Council of Muslim Democrats has threatened to withdraw their support if Biden does not secure a ceasefire, which could potentially impact the outcome of the 2024 election, given the significant Muslim vote in "swing states."
Source: www.dpa.com
