How the Chancellor's chief advisor explains the German failure in Afghanistan

Investigation committee - How the Chancellor's chief advisor explains the German failure in Afghanistan

It is an unusual role for Jens Plötner. Normally, the foreign policy chief advisor of Olaf Scholz works rather in the background. Those who speak with him know that they are dealing with one of the closest confidants of the Chancellor. That's powerful.

On this Thursday, Plötner sits alone in the Europasaal of the Bundestag behind his nameplate of a group of deputies. He is summoned as a witness to the Investigative Committee on the Afghanistan withdrawal scandal. The committee has been investigating for almost two years how it came about that the German government was so unprepared for the Taliban's blitz takeover in Afghanistan in the summer of 2021.

Jens Plötner was then Political Director in the Foreign Office. Department 2, European external and security policy. Responsible for 100 employees, 12 offices, and 50 diplomatic representations. Including those in Kabul and Washington. How could it have happened that the German government was so unprepared that the Taliban regained control of the country in the summer of 2021? That the Germans had to panic and flee in complete chaos, leaving many local forces in danger?

Jens Plötner nervously strokes his chin. Really, nothing can happen to him, even if he formally faces a multi-year prison sentence for false testimony. But it's still uncomfortable for the long-term diplomat to explain political failure before this tribunal.

He has prepared an introductory statement on several A4 pages about the situation at the time. It will be a small foreign policy speech. About the worsening conflict in Ukraine, the atomic negotiations with Iran in Vienna, the power shift from Donald Trump to Joe Biden in the USA, tensions with Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, and yes, also the difficult situation in Afghanistan. And in the middle, German foreign policy, busy adapting to the changed security situation. One must imagine a Political Director as a very busy person.

It can happen that memories fade. So Plötner answers many questions from the committee chairman, Ralf Stegner of the SPD, with "I don't remember anymore". Often it sounds plausible, especially since the chief advisor is now dealing with new and no less dramatic conflicts. From the crisis in Ukraine, a war has become another in the Near East. And in the USA, the future president could still be Donald Trump.

But not everything is credible. So Plötner cannot remember whether he attended the first crisis staff meeting on the escalating events in Afghanistan. And he no longer wants to know what he meant when he asked State Secretary Miguel Berger in an email on June 7, more than two months before the catastrophic withdrawal, "Are we prepared for the worst case?"

He cannot remember what he had imagined as the "worst case" at the time, Plötner tells the Investigative Committee. But a look at his old email would have revealed: "The Taliban are overrunning government positions one after the other, Kabul is falling?" The response of the State Secretary: "For such an extreme scenario, certainly not."

Today it is known that the German ambassador in Washington warned on August 6th that a "Saigon-scenario" could occur in Kabul – a situation comparable to the US military's defeat in Vietnam in 1975. Today, increasingly desperate reports reaching the Foreign Office from its embassy in Kabul are also known. He felt abandoned by his superiors, as he testified before the investigative committee.

However, Plotner and the Foreign Office were not alone in their underestimation of the situation. On August 10th, the Bundesnachrichtendienst predicted that the Taliban would not take Kabul until at least 30 days later. In fact, the Islamists took control of the Afghan capital five days earlier.

This misjudgment led to the evacuation of German citizens in Afghanistan not being initiated until the day of the Taliban's entry into Kabul, August 15th. Only seven managed to make it on the first evacuation flight. The Kabul airport was barely accessible. Images of desperate Afghans clinging to the wings of departing planes circulated around the world. Only thanks to the efforts of the Bundeswehr, which repeatedly landed in Kabul under high risk, were more than 5000 people evacuated.

Members of the investigative committee presented documents to Plötner in the Bundestag on this Thursday, which he had written or negotiated. A NATO statement on troop withdrawal, for example. CDU MP Thomas Röwekamp wants to know if he can remember working on this. Plötner takes off his glasses, flips through the pages, nods. And says: "Here it is, I would have approved the paper, then that would have been the case." Otherwise, unfortunately, no memory.

Plötner: I could not have seen the chaos in Afghanistan coming

Did Plötner already suspect in June that the Foreign Office could slip into the chaos in Afghanistan so unprepared? It certainly looks that way in the email he sent to the state secretary. In the hearing, he says he did not see the storm on Kabul coming three days earlier. And: I was only partially responsible for the evacuation of Germans and locals.

However, an unfavorable image of Plötner has been circulating in Berlin for some time: that he reacted too late and too hesitantly to threats. Before the start of the Russian attack on Ukraine, he was regarded in Berlin as a Russia expert, who pushed for good relations with Putin. Marie-Agnes Strack-Zimmermann (FDP) wrote about him on the platform X, long after Putin had marched into Ukraine: "Plötner is the embodiment of the disastrous German Russia policy of the last 15 years, behind whose ruins we now stand."

Doubts about the German strategy

Both Plötner and his boss Scholz must ask themselves: Is caution, restraint, passivity the right strategy when Germany is confronted with crises from all sides? At least in Afghanistan, this approach has proven disastrous. Thousands of former local forces and their families are still hiding from the Taliban. The hastily arranged evacuation flights came too late for them.

The investigative committee should not only clarify how it happened. It should enable conclusions to be drawn in order to make it better in the next crisis. The appearance of Ploetner raises doubts as to whether this will succeed. It shows that the admission of failure in politics is not valued, but rather interpreted as a weakness.

The Chief Advisor of the Chancellor can hope for the short-term memory of the German public in this matter. The events of that time, which dominated the headlines for weeks, have faded into oblivion. Just like Ploetner's memories.

Jens Plötner, the foreign policy chief advisor to Chancellor Olaf Scholz, is summoned as a witness to the Investigative Committee on the Afghanistan withdrawal scandal in the Bundestag.
Plötner was Political Director in the Foreign Office at the time of the Taliban's blitz takeover in Afghanistan in the summer of 2021.
The German government was unprepared for the Taliban's takeover, resulting in Germans having to panic and flee in complete chaos, leaving many local forces in danger.
Plötner nervously prepares to explain political failure before the investigative committee, having prepared an introductory statement on the situation at the time.
The statement includes discussions with Recep Tayyip Erdogan, tensions with the USA under Joe Biden, and the crisis in Ukraine.
Plötner struggles to remember details, such as attending the first crisis staff meeting on the escalating events in Afghanistan or the response to his email asking if they were prepared for the worst case.
The Taliban's takeover of Kabul was predicted by the Bundesnachrichtendienst to occur later, but they took control five days earlier.
The evacuation of German citizens in Afghanistan was not initiated until the day of the Taliban's entry into Kabul, leading to only seven being evacuated on the first flight.
Ralf Stegner, the committee chairman, presents documents to Plötner, including a NATO statement on troop withdrawal.
The German ambassador in Washington warned of a "Saigon-scenario" in Kabul, where over 5000 people were eventually evacuated thanks to the Bundeswehr's efforts.