How Russia could influence the US election
Against Russia, the stakes for the US Election are higher than ever before. If Donald Trump wins, military aid to Ukraine could be bypassed. Deepfakes, Bots, and AI are the decisive tools to manipulate the election.
When Americans go to the polling stations in November, they are not only deciding about their own fate. This US Election has immense geopolitical significance. Since the election outcome will also impact Taiwan and Ukraine, China and Russia have significant interest in influencing it.
Both countries are known for not always choosing direct confrontation but often resorting to unconventional methods. "Maskirovka," which means "camouflage" in Russian, is a military doctrine of the former USSR that is based on deception. A part of it is "dezinformatsia." It involves flooding societies, both domestically and internationally, with so many different stories that the truth becomes hard to discern. The USSR used all available channels and even employed the latest technologies for propaganda purposes. It managed to influence international discussions.
How can debates be influenced by state actors today? There are essentially two ways: first, the creation of so-called Deepfakes. With Artificial Intelligence (AI), it is possible to produce deceptively real videos, images, and audios - even of politicians. And second, through false profiles on Social Media platforms, commonly known as Bots. Few editors manage, increasingly aided by AI, thousands of profiles. Their goal is to spread their narratives widely and thus influence the discourse. For instance, in Russia, many bot profiles present themselves as Americans.
Deepfakes play a minor role in the West
Although technically possible, deepfakes, images, and audios have not played a significant role in Western political debates. CNN reports on deepfakes prepared by the Chinese and Iranian governments for the American presidential election 2020, but never published them. Deepfakes have mainly appeared in humorous contexts in the West. An exception are occasional alerts about potential attacks, like a deepfake video about an attack on the Pentagon. This was disseminated, among others, by the state-owned Russian broadcaster "Russia Today" (RT), but was quickly debunked.
In other countries, AI and particularly deepfakes already play a larger role in democratic opinion-making. Taiwan and Moldavia were likely victims of targeted Chinese and Russian manipulation in their recent elections. In both cases, deepfakes and manipulated audio recordings of the candidates, who were critical of the regimes, were circulated - in both instances, unsuccessfully.
The extent of influence hard to determine
It is increasingly difficult to keep track of where information originates. Many contents wander through countless different accounts and sources. False reports often start on RT.com - a Russian state organ. Although RT is banned in the EU, researchers from the German Marshall Fund of the United States found 3019 unique links on 316 domains in the EU that spread similar content. Globally, these contents reach 40 countries on six continents. The media disseminating these contents range from state media in countries like Cambodia, Lebanon, Namibia, Nigeria, Zimbabwe, and Yemen to seemingly harmless websites in the US, like manstuffnews.com or a site associated with a priest in Texas.
Once legitimized, narratives are frequently spread across various social media platforms. Partly organically, but also frequently with the help of Russian bot farms. The US Justice Department has just announced the dismantling of a Russian bot farm. A Russian intelligence officer worked together with a Russia Today editor to create nearly 1000 profiles on X, pretending to be American citizens, and spreading Russian propaganda about the war in Ukraine.
A Meta spokesperson confirmed that Russian operations targeting Ukraine have been "aggressive and persistent." The sum of past incidents and clear motivation from Russia makes it highly likely that Russia and China are currently working again to influence the US election through all available media. The full extent of their influence and how effective it is, will likely not be determined. The widespread use of deepfakes would be relatively obvious. If these are not used extensively, it could be either because Russia does not see them as effective means of manipulation or because they do not have sufficient capabilities to implement them on a large scale. However, many other methods are much less conspicuous and, if at all, only detectable with great effort. A clear indicator is the election outcome: A victory for the Democrats would be a failure for Russia and China.
The Author: Max Orgeldinger (35) is the managing director of TLGG - Germany's first social media agency and digital consulting firm, advising some of the largest companies in Germany and beyond.
In the United States Presidency Election 2024, both Russia and China are anticipated to use unconventional methods to influence outcomes, given their interest in geopolitical situations involving Taiwan and Ukraine. Artificial Intelligence (AI), specifically in the form of Deepfakes and Bots, is one such method they may employ to manipulate social media discourse and spread narratives, as seen in past election attempts in Taiwan and Moldova. If Donald Trump wins the election, there could be potential ramifications for military aid to Ukraine, as previously observed during his presidency.
