How realistic is the big election bang in Saxony?
Polls in Saxony show several established parties dangerously close to the five percent threshold - including the SPD. If they actually fail in the state election, only the AfD and CDU could be left in an extreme case - and perhaps a Wagenknecht party.
Just under nine months before the state election in Saxony, it is possible that the SPD will fail to reach the five percent threshold. The SPD, as well as the Greens and the Left Party, are currently polling at 7 percent in Saxony, according to a survey conducted by the Civey Institute for the "Sächsische Zeitung" newspaper this week. "If the SPD, the Left Party and the Greens are each at 7 percent in Saxony now, they must all expect to possibly fail at the five percent hurdle in 2024," party researcher Hendrik Träger from the University of Leipzig told the "Tagesspiegel". "The path from 7 to 4.9 percent is short, which is only due to the statistical margin of error in polls."
In view of the current polls, the Saxony elections on September 1, 2024 could result in only "CDU, AfD and possibly the Wagenknecht party sitting in the state parliament", said Träger. This would "make forming a government considerably more difficult".
If no Wagenknecht party is elected, in an extreme case only the CDU and AfD could make it into the state parliament - and the winner of the election could govern alone. Because if there is no tie in the seats between the two parties, the winner of the election will definitely have an absolute majority. In the latest Civey poll, the CDU and AfD were tied with 33%. The results of the other parties: The Free Voters come in at 3 percent, the FDP at 2 percent. Other parties achieved a total of 8 percent.
Expert sees devastating consequences for SPD
While the Greens have already missed out on entering the Saxon state parliament several times, "the SPD could lose its parliamentary existence for the first time in 2024", said Träger. The SPD achieved 7.7 percent in the last state election in Saxony in 2019. In nationwide polls, the Social Democrats are at around 15 percent. The party has always suffered from structural weakness in Saxony. For the SPD and the Greens, and even more so for the FDP, the fact that they form the federal government and this is very unpopular makes things worse, said political scientist Träger. "This usually has an impact on state elections."
"For the SPD and the Greens, nothing less than political survival in the Free State of Saxony is at stake. If they were to drop out of the state parliament in 2024 and then not be part of it for five years, it would be devastating for the parties, especially for the SPD, both politically and organizationally."
Political scientist Frank Decker from the University of Bonn sees the situation somewhat differently. "I don't see the risk of the SPD and the Left Party failing to reach the five percent threshold, but I do see it for the FDP and the Greens," Decker told the "Tagesspiegel" newspaper. This applies to both Saxony and Thuringia, where the state parliament is also to be re-elected in September. A Wagenknecht party would have a chance of clearing the hurdle if it stood in both federal states, said Decker, who is a member of the SPD's Basic Values Commission.
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- In the potential scenario where the SPD fails to surpass the five percent threshold in the State elections in Saxony, the CDU, AfD, and possibly a Wagenknecht party could be the only parties represented in the state parliament.
- If the current polls remain consistent, the AfD and CDU could be the sole representatives of Governments and parties in Saxony's parliament after the 2024 elections, with no other party reaching the necessary five percent threshold.
- Sahra Wagenknecht's potential party could potentially clear the five percent hurdle in the State elections in Saxony, serving as a potential alternative to both the CDU and the AfD and adding another voice to Governments and parties in the region.
Source: www.ntv.de
