How NATO wants to make itself "Trump-proof"
Joe Biden, the US President, is hosting the NATO summit in Washington in the coming week. His challenger in the presidential election, Donald Trump, is not present but his influence is felt. This is evident in some of the planned summit resolutions, which show how the alliance is gearing up for a possible Trump victory in the November elections.
"Trump-assured" Ukraine aid from Wiesbaden
The heads of state and government aim to approve a plan that secures Ukraine aid even if Trump wins. This would enable Europeans to take on more responsibility from the US. The NATO intends to coordinate its arms deliveries to Ukraine from a new headquarters in the Hessian state capital Wiesbaden, as well as train Ukrainian soldiers in Europe.
Burden sharing between Europe and the US
US presidents have been urging their European allies for years to invest significantly more in their own security. As evidence that Europeans "understand," the NATO cites the fact that 23 of its 32 member states have now met the NATO target of spending at least 2% of their Gross Domestic Product (GDP) on defense. Germany fulfills the NATO quota with an estimated 2.1% for the first time since the end of the Cold War. Poland and the Baltic states are pushing for a target of up to 3%. If Trump is re-elected, this goal "could come more quickly," a diplomat said.
Ukraine must continue to wait for NATO membership
The expected invitation to membership will not be given in Washington. The main reason is concerns from the US and Germany. The accession promise from July 2023 is being revised. At the summit in Vilnius, the allies agreed on the formulation "to invite Ukraine to membership when the allies are in agreement and the conditions are met." The demand of the Eastern Europeans to speak of an "irreversible path" towards membership for Ukraine is not consensus-building, according to diplomats. The US prefers the more neutral "bridge to membership."
More Patriot systems for Kiev expected
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy is expected to be reassured on the summit with further military aid pledges. Zelenskyy has demanded seven Patriot air defense systems from NATO partners for the defense against Russian attacks. The alliance hopes to obtain six of them. One battery each comes from Germany and Romania, the Netherlands are working with partners on a third. Italy will deliver a comparable system Type SAMP/T. The US is still undecided on whether and when it can provide Patriot systems.
Temporary billion-dollar pledges for Ukraine
The heads of state and government plan to pledge military aid to Ukraine worth 40 billion euros on the summit. Unlike what NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg suggested, they initially limit it to one year. According to diplomats, the aid should be reviewed annually from the NATO summit in The Hague next year. Germany has already pledged eight billion euros for this year and sees its quota met for the time being.
At the summit in Lithuania one year ago, NATO countries criticized the declared goals and policy of "forced measures" from the People's Republic of China, but showed themselves open for constructive cooperation. However, due to US pressure, harsher language is expected in Washington. The allies may express criticism of China's support for the Russian aggression war in the final declaration.
- Despite being absent from the NATO summit, former President Donald Trump's influence on the alliance's resolutions is evident, with a plan being approved to secure aid for Ukraine even if he wins the November elections.
- The NATO aims to take on more responsibility for Ukraine's aid by coordinating its arms deliveries to Ukraine from a new headquarters in Wiesbaden and training Ukrainian soldiers in Europe, a move that US presidents, including Trump, have urged for years.
- If Donald Trump is re-elected as US President, the goal of increasing European defense spending to up to 3% of their GDP may be achieved more quickly, according to a diplomat, as this had been a long-standing request from previous US administrations.
