Table of Contents
- How is the threat level in Germany assessed?
- What does the "abstract high" threat mean that is being talked about?
- What do bans achieve?
- How much surveillance is allowed?
- How many Islamists are there in Germany?
- Are foreign "threats" and radical Salafist preachers deported?
- How big is the Islamist terror threat in Germany?
Young Islamists who are inspired by radical preachers online to carry out terror attacks are often difficult for security authorities to detect. This is the case in Austria, where three concerts by pop singer Taylor Swift were canceled following a specific warning, as well as in Germany. Often, conspicuous statements in chats, orders of suspect materials, or online transfers to Islamic groups are the only indications.
How is the threat level in Germany assessed?
Relatively high. This can be seen, among other things, in the effort made by security authorities during the football Euros this summer. "The risk of jihadist attacks is as high as it has been for a long time," said Thomas Haldenwang, president of the Federal Office for the Protection of the Constitution, to the German Press Agency in June. Security authorities are increasingly processing corresponding tips.
What does the "abstract high" threat mean that is being talked about?
This means that the authorities attribute to many people in Germany the intention to attempt a terrorist attack out of misguided political-religious conviction. It does not mean that one knows of plans where the means of the act and the target are already known. However, if the security authorities see a high risk in a specific case, they intervene even if individual elements of a possible plan are still missing.
Among the latest Islamic terrorist attacks that could not be prevented, the bloody deed of a 27-year-old who killed a 35-year-old passerby with a knife in Duisburg in April 2023 is counted. Nine days later, he stabbed four visitors in a fitness studio.
A religious motive is also said to have played a role in the fatal knife attack in Mannheim, where a 25-year-old Afghan injured five men with a knife at the end of May. One of them, the 29-year-old police officer Rouven Laur, died two days later from his injuries.
The Constitutional Protection also has several mosques in its sights, in which preachers incite against supposed unbelievers. Verbotsverfügungen are issued here again and again. For example, the state of Lower Saxony banned the German-speaking Muslim Community (DMG) from Braunschweig in June.
Salafism is a backward-looking, extremely conservative stream of Islam. Its followers see themselves as champions of an unadulterated Islam. They reject reforms and want to transform state, legal order, and society according to their rulebook. The goal is the establishment of an Islamic "caliphate".
What do bans achieve?
"We tolerate no associations in which supposed unbelievers, women, or Jews, as well as our societal order as a whole, are regularly devalued and whose combat is called for," explained Lower Saxony's Interior Minister Daniela Behrens (SPD) at the time of the DMG ban. To enforce the measure, a total of eight objects in Braunschweig and Berlin were searched.
However, there are often individuals among young terrorism suspects who have never set foot in a Salafist mosque but are influenced exclusively by so-called TikTok preachers.
Some of these preachers, who are sometimes affiliated with certain mosques and find their audience throughout the German-speaking world, include Ahmed A., known as Abul Baraa, who is based in Berlin. Since the DMG ban, which also resulted in searches at his residence and the deletion of many of his videos online, he is said to have become somewhat more restrained in his speech, according to information from the German Press Agency. The well-known Salafist preacher holds German citizenship.
How much surveillance is allowed?
Especially difficult to detect are young Islamists who radicalize under the influence of Salafist preachers and terrorists who spread their content exclusively online, particularly through social media. Finding early indications for the security authorities is often more difficult - also because the barriers for telecommunications surveillance in Germany are high.
Often, it begins with a tip from a US intelligence agency, which has noticed sympathies for the terrorist organizations Islamic State (IS) or Al-Qaeda. If further information indicating a willingness to act is found, the suspect can be arrested or taken into custody.
How many Islamists are there in Germany?
The domestic intelligence agency estimated the Islamist potential in the previous year at 27,200 people, only a part of whom are considered violent. The agency does not provide information on how many supporters of IS and Al-Qaeda live in Germany.
Especially young perpetrators, in whom the process of radicalization often progresses very quickly, are a particular concern for the authorities. An example of this is the case of two teenagers who allegedly planned to carry out an attack with a truck on a Christmas market in Leverkusen, North Rhine-Westphalia, in the fall of 2023. At the time, they were 15 and 17 years old.
Are foreign "dangerous individuals" and radical Salafist preachers deported?
Yes. According to the federal government, 35 so-called dangerous individuals have been deported from Germany between 2021 and June 2024. "Dangerous individuals" are people whom the police suspect of committing serious politically motivated crimes, including terrorist attacks. However, some "dangerous individuals" and many of the Salafists who preach in German also hold German citizenship. Some of them are citizens of countries to which Germany currently cannot deport anyone for legal or practical reasons, such as Syria and Afghanistan.
The fact that the number of "dangerous individuals" present in Germany has been decreasing for years is not only due to deportations, but also because some leave voluntarily or distance themselves from radical ideology. In July 2021, there were still 333 Islamists assessed in the federal territory. Currently, as reported by the Redaktionsnetzwerk Deutschland, citing the Federal Criminal Police Office, 96 "dangerous individuals" are in custody in Germany, and 208 are at large within the federal territory.
In addition to Austria, Germany also experiences issues with young Islamists being inspired by radical online preachers to carry out terror attacks. This was evident during the football Euros in Germany, where the threat level was assessed as relatively high.
The Federal Office for the Protection of the Constitution in Germany has been attributing an "abstract high" threat level to many individuals, indicating a potential intention to attempt a terrorist attack due to misguided political-religious convictions.
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