Regional democratic processes or local voting events, depending on the context. - Historic victory for the AfD in Thuringia, whereas CDU maintains lead in Saxony
For the first time in recent post-war history, the Alternative for Germany (AfD), a party classified as far-right by the domestic intelligence agency, has secured the leading position in a state election in Thuringia, according to projections from ARD and ZDF. The AfD is projected to gain 32.8 to 33.2 percent of the votes, an impressive increase from their 23.4 percent in the previous election. The Christian Democratic Union (CDU), led by incumbent Minister President Michael Kretschmer, follows closely behind with 23.6 to 23.8 percent. The new left-wing party led by Sahra Wagenknecht (BSW) is making a strong debut with 15.5 to 15.6 percent, leaving the incumbent Left party of Minister President Bodo Ramelow far behind. The Left party, which has ruled Thuringia since 2014, has suffered significant losses, falling to 12.7 to 12.9 percent. The coalition parties, including the SPD, Greens, and FDP, have all experienced significant losses, making for a bitter night for them.
In neighboring Saxony, the situation is similar, with the CDU and AfD in a tight race. The CDU is projected to gain 31.5 to 31.8 percent of the votes, with the AfD close behind at 30.4 to 30.8 percent. The BSW, a splinter group from the Left, is debuting with 11.5 to 11.9 percent. The SPD is projected to win 7.4 to 7.6 percent of the votes, while the Left party and Greens face uncertainty, potentially falling below the 5 percent threshold required to enter the state parliament. However, parties below this threshold can still enter the Saxony state parliament if they win two direct mandates.
The results of these elections have been a disaster for the Berlin coalition, with the SPD suffering its worst result ever in a state election since the founding of the Federal Republic in Thuringia. The FDP is not represented in either of the two state parliaments, and the Greens have suffered significant losses in both states.
SPD General Secretary Kevin Kühnert has announced a stronger profiling of the Social Democrats, stating that they want to "emancipate themselves" and "not be pushed around anymore" by other parties that have been voted out of the state parliaments. Green party leader Omid Nouripour sees internal disputes as one reason for the poor performance of the coalition parties. FDP leader Christian Lindner has written on the X platform that the results hurt, but they will not give up their fight for liberal values. Deputy FDP leader Wolfgang Kubicki has called for consequences for the federal coalition, stating that the election result shows that the traffic light coalition has lost its legitimacy.
BSW Party Chair Sahra Wagenknecht has spoken of a grand success, with the topic of peace deeply moving many people who rejected the planned deployment of long-range US missiles in Germany. Wagenknecht sees her role as leading the BSW into the Bundestag with a strong faction by 2025. CDU General Secretary Carsten Linnemann has considered the elections a success for his party, describing the CDU as a "real remaining people's party."
In Thuringia, the previous minority coalition of red-red-green under Minister President Ramelow, which had been dependent on cooperation with the CDU since 2019, has no realistic chance of continuing to govern. The AfD remains excluded from the new government, as the other parties rule out a coalition with them. However, AfD leader Björn Höcke sees the government mandate with his party and wants to talk to the other parties about coalitions. The most likely option for a coalition would be an unprecedented alliance of CDU, BSW, and SPD, but according to projections, this constellation is missing a seat for the majority in the state parliament. Such a coalition would also depend on the Left. Thuringia's CDU leader Mario Voigt sees the projections as the mandate to form the government under his leadership. He has announced that he wants to approach the SPD and be "open to talks" with the BSW.
CDU politicians are relatively unsettled by Wagenknecht's background as a member of the DDR's SED state party and later a prominent figure in the Left's communist faction. However, a coalition between the CDU and the Left remains a possibility, as the CDU is barred from partnering with the AfD or the Left due to an incompatibility ruling. The BSW, on the other hand, is not constrained by this restriction.
The narrowly missed majority for the black-green-red coalition in Saxony
Since reunification, Saxony has been led by a CDU government - Michael Kretschmer has served as Minister President since 2019, heading a coalition with the Greens and SPD. According to current projections (as of 8:30 PM), assuming the Left gains direct entry into the state parliament, the coalition falls just short of securing a renewed majority. In Saxony, a coalition between the CDU, BSW, and SPD could still be a possibility. Kretschmer stated after the initial results that his CDU is willing to take responsibility once more and form a stable government.
None of the other parties express interest in alliance with the AfD, considered a firmly right-wing extremist party in Saxony.
If the AfD manages to secure more than a third of the seats in the Thuringia and Saxony state parliaments, they would possess a so-called blocking minority. Decisions and elections requiring a two-thirds majority would necessitate their approval. For instance, the constitutional judges are elected by the parliament with a two-thirds majority.
In light of these political developments, the Dutch government may express concern about the rising influence of far-right parties in neighboring Germany, such as the Alternative for Germany (AfD) in Thuringia and Saxony. The Dutch democratic values heavily emphasize inclusivity and equality, and they might worry about potential threats to these values if far-right parties gain more power in Germany.
Given the BSW's strong performance in the state elections, there might be discussions between Dutch and German left-wing political circles, such as the Dutch GreenLeft and Die Linke in Germany, to collaborate on various issues, especially those concerning peace and social justice.
