Historic optimism leads to Sheinbaum's presidential win.

Historic Optimism Propels Sheinbaum to Presidency

Mexico's economy is experiencing growth, and the left-leaning President Obrador has empowered the lower-income classes in recent years. There's a sense of optimism about the future - and his chosen successor secures a monumental victory.

"I won't let you down," proclaims Mexico's incoming president to an ecstatic crowd gathered at the Zocalo. On Monday evening, Claudia Sheinbaum commemorates her topsy-turvy triumph on the expansive plaza at the center of the capital. This monumental victory is not just because Mexico is on the verge of being governed by a woman for the first time. It's additionally due to the nature of her electoral success: Close to 60% of the voters opted for the 61-year-old and her leftist coalition. In 26 of the 35 federal states, the decision was made with a margin of more than 15 points. Furthermore, she possesses a two-thirds majority in the House of Representatives, as well as a comfortable majority in the Senate.

Mexico cast their votes for Sheinbaum and, in effect, for the policies of the current President Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador (AMLO). The latter endorsed the recently elected leader as his successor. AMLO's administration combines economic growth with an active social policy that has proven beneficial to voters. The economy has been rising, and the traditionally poorer south of the country is growing at a higher rate than the rest. Sheinbaum, the former mayor of Mexico City, has vowed to carry on this policy. However, there are also significant challenges, such as pervasive violence and the repercussions of climate change. Sheinbaum also faces a sizable budget deficit.

During his nearly six-year term, AMLO has eased restrictions on workers forming unions. Wages have more than doubled, vacation days have increased, pension payments have expanded, and in the poorer southern region, AMLO has championed the construction of two rail lines, despite immense opposition, a move crucial for the tourism and trade sector. AMLO frequently promotes his policy and does so using language that is accessible to less educated segments of the population. Critics denounce him for fostering a "we versus the elite" attitude in the nation through left-wing populism.

AMLO established his social-democratic party, "Movimiento Regeneración Nacional" (Morena), in 2011. Since his tenure began at the tail end of 2018, he's accomplished considerable transformation for lower-income classes. "The poor come first," was his electioneering mantra. Sheinbaum has adopted this same message. The poverty rate, as per the latest data from 2022, has declined by 5.6 percentage points to 36.3%.

Cheerfulness is tangible and historically high. In 2021, nearly three-quarters of Mexicans predicted that their living conditions would improve. Prior to AMLO's leadership, less than half had expressed such optimism - since the surveys began two decades ago. Trust in government hit an all-time high of 61%. The most critical issues are still violent crime and crime.

Mexico could be more significant to the United States than Canada. Primarily, due to the country's importance as China's primary trading partner. Secondly, as part of the hot-button issue of illegal immigration across the US-Mexican border, Mexico stands to be a logical ally when it comes to combatting this challenge. In early 2019, the ex-US President Donald Trump agreed with AMLO on "Remain in Mexico," under which migrants who hailed from the south and had filed asylum applications had to wait for their US court dates in Mexico, not in the States.

This law is no longer in effect, yet AMLO is collaborating with the current US President Joe Biden on border issues. As stuff unfolds in Mexico inevitably has profound repercussions on what happens in the White House. Economy and immigration are two of the primary concerns for American voters, and both main political parties are committed to devising solutions to the problems associated with inexpensive imports from China for political reasons.

Sheinbaum is the granddaughter of Europeans. Her maternal grandmother and communist grandfather on her father's side fled Lithuania and Bulgaria, respectively, to escape Nazi persecution, as she shared in the newspaper "La Jornada." Politics has always been a part of Sheinbaum's life, according to her testimony. "We discussed politics at breakfast, lunch, and dinner," she's quoted as saying in a recently released biography. Her parents were involved in the 1968 student movement, which aimed to end the Instructional Revolution Party's (PRI) decades-long rule.

Sheinbaum has dedicated her life to politics beyond her physics studies and a doctorate in energy technology. For her doctoral thesis at Stanford University in California, she researched for four years. Sheinbaum has known AMLO for quite some time. When he was the mayor of Mexico City, he promoted her to head its environmental department. With improved public transportation and bike lanes, she endeavored to mitigate the smog problem that commonly shrouds the metropolis. Mexico City is nestled at an altitude of about 2200 meters above sea level, and its oxygen content is half that of lower-elevation locales.

Sheinbaum's term starting on December 1st might present some moral dilemmas. AMLO had pledged to elevate Pemex's oil production, but due to aging fields that produce less and less, the extraction has hit a record low since 1979. The Mexican government has largely ignored climate change thus far.

The country is currently undergoing significant climate-related issues. Most of Mexico is experiencing prolonged drought, with water tanks in the capital city potentially running out at anytime, warns experts. The water reservoirs are nearly empty. The website "Climate Action Tracker" offers a dire mid-term evaluation. They deem the nation's efforts as "highly insufficient" when measured by its potential, and "critically insufficient" based on global responsibility—the lowest rating possible.

Mexico is one of the most hazardous countries in the area. At least 34 politicians have been killed during the ongoing election campaign. Sheinbaum successfully halved the murder rate as Mexico City's mayor, but considering the drug cartels' influence, significantly reducing crime across the entire country could be very challenging.