New parliamentary elections - High voter turnout in France - shift to the right foreseeable
In France, the second round of the advanced parliamentary elections is running. This determines how strong the expected right-wing shift in the important neighboring country will be - and whether the National Rally of Marine Le Pen could even make it to the government. By midday, about every fourth eligible voter had already cast their vote.
At noon, the participation was at 26.63%, according to the Interior Ministry in Paris. In the first election round a week ago, the participation overall was 66.71%, and at noon it was 25.9%.
The last regular parliamentary election in 2022 saw a voter turnout of 18.99% in the second round at noon. This indicates strong interest in the advanced election. The last polling stations close at 8:00 pm. Then, calculations for the election outcome will begin.
Right-wing shift also affects Europe
The French are debating the majority relations in the National Assembly. Above all, the question is: Has President Emmanuel Macron paved the way for the Right with the unexpected new election? This would be a turning point in the country's history and would have significant implications for European politics.
The latest surveys see no absolute majority for the Rassemblement National (RN) of Le Pen. Accordingly, the Right-wingers and their allies are expected to receive between 205 and 240 seats, more than double what they currently have. They would fall significantly short of the absolute majority of 289 seats, but would be the strongest force in the National Assembly for the first time, which would mean a historic right-wing shift in France.
A humiliating defeat for Macron is expected
The new left-wing alliance, formed for the advanced parliamentary elections, is in second place. The centrist camp of President Macron is expected to suffer a humiliating defeat, according to the latest polls, and is in third place.
The Macron camp is clearly on the verge of a pile-up and will likely be represented in parliament in significantly reduced numbers according to all forecasts. The once celebrated Macron as a renewer and defender of a strong Europe could lose weight both domestically and internationally after this setback.
Will Bardella be the new Prime Minister?
Regardless of the election outcome, it is expected that the existing government of Prime Minister Elisabeth Borne will continue to govern for a few more days until clarity about the formation of a future government emerges. This could take some time - the situation is as complicated as it has not been for a long time.
If the RN achieves an absolute majority, Macron would be under political pressure to appoint as the first premier from the ranks of the Rechtsnationalen - for example, RN leader Jordan Bardella.
This would mean a "cohabitation" in France for the first time since 1997. This means that the president and the prime minister represent different political directions.
Conservatives could be kingmakers
With a strong relative majority for the RN, it is calculated that this party will try to win over further deputies from the bourgeois-conservative Républicains (LR) to its side in order to gain decision-making power in the parliament.
The former People's Party had split in the run-up to the election. Its chairman Éric Ciotti had independently arranged cooperation with the RN, but only a small number of deputies followed him.
Impending Standstill
It is currently unclear how things will proceed in France, as the alliance of most other parties against the RN is actually working. The other factions - including the resurgent Socialists - have already made it clear that they do not want to govern together in a national coalition. The current government could then remain in power as a caretaker government or an expert government could be appointed. Such a government could not bring new projects to fruition without a majority - France is thus facing a political standstill.
Macron, after Le Pen's Rassemblement National won the European election in early June, dissolved the National Assembly and announced new elections. The National Assembly is one of the two French parliamentary chambers. It is involved in legislation and can bring down the government through a vote of no confidence.
- Marine Le Pen, the leader of the Rassemblement National (RN), aims to be a part of the French government following the parliamentary election.
- The Interior Ministry in Paris reported a voter turnout of 26.63% at noon during the second round of the parliamentary elections in France.
- Jordan Bardella, the RN leader, could potentially become the new Prime Minister if the RN achieves an absolute majority in the parliamentary election.
- Emmanuel Macron's centrist camp is expected to suffer a humiliating defeat in the parliamentary election, according to the latest polls.
- If no absolute majority is achieved in the parliamentary election, the conservatives could play a crucial role as kingmakers, potentially aligning with the RN to gain decision-making power.
- The expected shift to the right in France's politics could have significant implications for European politics, particularly in the European Parliament.
- The consequence of the right-wing shift in France could lead to a political standstill, with the current government serving as a caretaker or an expert government being appointed, unable to bring new projects to fruition without a majority.
