Parliamentary election - High turnout for fateful election in France
With a surprisingly high voter turnout, the first round of the advanced parliamentary elections in France is heading towards its target. By 17.00 PM, 59.39 percent of the registered voters, male and female, had cast their votes, according to the Paris Interior Ministry. This is approximately 20 percentage points more than at the same time during the previous parliamentary election two years ago.
The intermediate result already exceeds the overall voter turnout for the 2022 elections of 47.51 percent. The polling stations are still open until 20.00 PM. After that, calculations for the election outcome will begin.
Security forces in France have prepared for the possibility of unrest in some major cities of the country on the evening of the first round of voting.
Power shift in Paris possible
The nearly 49.3 million eligible voters can vote on whether the Centre-Right bloc of French President Emmanuel Macron will continue to have a majority in the National Assembly and thus form the government. Otherwise, a power shift in Paris is on the horizon, and Prime Minister Elisabeth Borne will have to vacate the field.
Macron dissolved the National Assembly after the clear defeat of his Liberals in the European elections and the landslide victory of the right-wing Rassemblement National (RN) and announced new elections for the French Parliament in two stages. The second and decisive round is on July 7. Macron's presidency is not at stake in the vote.
Polls show right-wingers in the lead
President Macron hopes to build a relative majority for his Centre-Right coalition in the National Assembly through the vote. However, it is considered unlikely that he will achieve this. According to the polls, Macron's forces were in third place in the first round of voting on Sunday with 20-20.5 percent. In first place was the right-wing RN of Marine Le Pen with 36-36.5 percent, followed by the Left Bloc with 29 percent.
The RN of Marine Le Pen is already painting itself as a contender for a majority in the Parliament and the position of Prime Minister. The new Left Bloc, consisting of Greens, Socialists, Communists, and the Left Party, is also aiming for a government shift.
The exact composition of the Parliament after the election is uncertain. Fewer than the least number of seats are given out in the first round. In many constituencies, the runoff elections in the second round will be decisive. While only five seats were won in the first round of the regular parliamentary election two years ago, according to the Ipsos polling institute, as many as 80-90 seats could be won directly this time. This is due to the expected higher voter turnout and a stronger concentration on the three political alliances.
Although statements about the second round are difficult, it is assumed that the Right-wingers will be the strongest force in the National Assembly. Whether they will have enough seats for an absolute majority is unclear - also because local alliances are often formed between the two rounds, which can influence the outcome. While the Left could remain stable, Macron's Centre-Right coalition could lose seats.
A victory for the Right would have international consequences.
Such an outcome would have serious consequences. The National Assembly is one of the two French parliamentary chambers. It is involved in legislation and can bring down the government through a vote of no confidence. If another block, other than Macron's Center-Right faction, were to gain an absolute majority, Macron would in fact be forced to appoint a Premier from their ranks. This is called cohabitation. Macron's power would significantly shrink, while the Premier would become more influential.
The Nationalists explicitly aim to win the election and take on government responsibility. RN Party Chief Jordan Bardella is expected to become Prime Minister. In such a scenario, Macron would face difficulties in pushing through his lines internationally. The election is therefore being closely watched in Brussels and Berlin.
- The unexpectedly high voter turnout in France suggests a potential power shift in Paris, with Emmanuel Macron's Center-Right coalition facing a challenge in the advanced parliamentary elections.
- Gabriel Attal, a prominent figure in Macron's government, is closely monitoring the election outcomes, as a shift in power could lead to changes in the Ministry of the Interior.
- The Choice of Destiny for France's future is clearly reflected in the vote, with the nearly 49.3 million eligible voters choosing between the Center-Right bloc and the Right-wing Rassemblement National (RN).
- The RN, led by Marine Le Pen, is aiming for a majority in Parliament and the role of Prime Minister following the election round, as indicated by their strong lead in the polls.
- The unrest and potential riots in Paris and other major cities during the election period have kept the French authorities on high alert, with security forces prepared to maintain order.
- The Parliamentary election results will determine the composition of the National Assembly, with as many as 80-90 seats expected to be won directly in the first round due to the higher voter turnout and stronger political alliances.
- If the Right-wingers emerge victorious in the election, there will be international consequences, as the National Assembly can significantly influence Macron's ability to push through his international policies.
- The election outcome could result in cohabitation, with a non-Center-Right Prime Minister taking the reins, resulting in a reduced power for Macron and increased influence for the Premier.
- The European elections and the French Parliamentary elections have garnered widespread attention, with policymakers in Brussels and Berlin closely watching the developments, as the outcome could have significant implications for the European Union.
