Upper alarm levels - High risk of forest fires in Saxony - but easing in sight
With the end of the chilly rainy weather over the past weekend, the risk of forest fires in Saxony has increased. For the northern part of the Bautzen district and the areas of Leipzig, the Dahlen Heath, and the Wermsdorfer Forest, the second highest warning level 4 currently applies. The rest of the Vogtland district and some areas in the Erzgebirge have a medium risk, as shown in the current overview on the homepage of the State Office for Environment, Agriculture and Geology (LfULG). However, the forecast shows a low to very low risk starting from Wednesday. The meteorologists expect heavy rainfall, which will ease the situation.
"It's coming again: Schaukelwetter" [1], said an LfULG spokesperson.
Due to the climate change-induced shift of rainfall into the winter half-year, the state enterprise Sachsenforst also expects high forest fire danger in this summer. Dry vegetation in combination with wind can exacerbate this, said a spokesperson. At the beginning of the year, high temperatures and wind dried out the relevant litter layer - dead leaves and twigs on the forest floor - quickly. Sand forest soils in northern parts of the Free State lose moisture even faster. There is a high proportion of grass between the trees there, "which burns well". However, the situation in 2024 is expected to be slightly better due to the previous rainfall.
Since the beginning of the year, 53 forest fires have been registered, covering a total area of 6.4 hectares. The spokesperson could not exclude the possibility that more may have occurred, given reporting deadlines. In 2023, there were 110 forest fires with a total affected area of 136 hectares, including a large fire in the Gohrisch Heath in June. In most cases, their origin was due to human causes, twelve of which were deliberately set and the rest occurred due to negligent behavior.
Saxony has five forest fire danger levels. Level 1 stands for a very low risk, level 5 for a very high risk. For levels 4 and 5, it is recommended to avoid the affected forest areas. Anyone who is in the woods should not leave the main paths. The districts can issue additional restrictions - careless driving is the most common cause of forest fires in the Free State.
Drought periods as an indicator of climate change
Heat and drought have been promoting the occurrence and duration of drought periods in Saxony for approximately ten years, according to LfULG. Their frequency is an indicator of climate change. Long-term rainfall deficits and short-term -surpluses through heavy rain occur simultaneously, high temperatures intensify the effect of rainfall deficits due to evaporation. And in Saxony, the effects of the drought year 2018 are still noticeable in nature.
[1] Schaukelwetter: A term used in German meteorology to describe unstable weather conditions with frequent shifts between rain and dry periods.
The German Weather Service predicts heavy rain, hail, and strong winds, as well as thunderstorms until the weekend - with summer temperatures continuing. Local heavy rain will not sustainably fill the rivers, which are currently carrying little water, according to the spokesperson of LfULG. Approximately one quarter of the monitored water levels are in the low water range, and more than one third are below that, while the groundwater falls below the monthly average at around one third of the evaluated reporting stations - on average, 24 centimeters below.
- Despite the recent rainy weekend, the climate change-induced risk of forest fires in Saxony has elevated, particularly in the northern part of the Bautzen district and areas like Leipzig, Dahlen Heath, and Wermsdorfer Forest.
- Currently, the second highest warning level 4 applies in these regions, while the Vogtland district and some areas in the Erzgebirge show a medium risk.
- The Ore Mountains, known for their beautiful forests, are also affected by this medium risk.
- To help combat the danger of forest fires, individuals are advised to avoid forest areas during levels 4 and 5, and stick to main paths when in the woods.
- The Dresden district, located in the eastern part of Saxony, may also experience the increased risk of forest fires due to the changing climate.
- The forests of Pirna, a popular weekend destination for many, could potentially be at risk if the situation worsens.
- The heavy rainfall predicted for this week will hopefully alleviate the situation, serving as a reminder of the importance of the environment and the need for proper management of natural resources.
- After a few rainy days, the alarm level may decrease, but ongoing climate change and human activities like careless driving remain potential threats to the forests of Saxony and its nature.
