Hezbollah's weapons - are they overwhelming the Iron Dome?
It is still unclear how Iran and its allies intend to attack Israel. However, it is certain that Hezbollah will play a key role. What weapons does this terrorist group possess, and could it overwhelm Israel's air defense?
Israel's security forces are on high alert, preparing for the expected massive attack by Iran and its allies. When this will happen is uncertain. What it will look like is unknown. Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah has already called the delay of the announced retaliation strike a "part of the punishment." It is supposed to be revenge for the death of several high-ranking terrorists from Hamas and Hezbollah in July. "Our retaliation will come," said Nasrallah - and threatened Israel with attacks from the ground, air, and sea in case of war.
Earlier this year, Iran and several terrorist groups took revenge: after the death of high-ranking commanders of the Revolutionary Guards in an Israeli air strike on an Iranian consular building in Damascus. More than 300 drones, ballistic missiles, and cruise missiles were fired at Israel in April. Israel's air defense and its allies were able to intercept 99 percent of them, according to their own statements. Will a similar massive attack be repeated? And will the air defense be as successful again?
It is certain that Hezbollah will play a key role. This is already due to its geographical proximity to Israel: while rockets from Iran have to cross other countries, the militia is located in the border region with Israel. And unlike Hamas in the Gaza Strip, which is weakened by the months-long war since the massacre of Israeli civilians on October 7, 2023, Hezbollah is more than just a militia. It resembles a regular army. The Center for Strategic and International Studies described it in 2018 as the "most heavily armed non-state actor worldwide."
Katyusha rockets fired in the dozens
What is the danger to Israel from the Shiite terrorist group in Lebanon? The exact number of fighters Hezbollah has is unknown. It itself speaks of a number of "far more" than 100,000 men. Other sources speak of 20,000 active fighters and twice as many reservists. Many of them are well-trained and have combat experience in Syria.
Middle East expert Peter Lintl sees an "immense danger" above all in the rocket potential of Hezbollah. "One speaks of 120,000 or more rockets. And also qualitatively, Hezbollah is stronger than Hamas: its rockets can reach every place in Israel," he said to ntv.de. Its arsenal includes weapons developed in Russia, China, and especially Iran. Some are now produced by Hezbollah itself. Syria is also often mentioned as an important arms supplier.
Typical for Hezbollah are Katyusha rockets of Russian design, which are fired in the dozens at Israel. They have a range of a few kilometers and are used like mortars or simple drones in the border region. Hezbollah is said to have tens of thousands of such rockets, which are mobile and can therefore be fired from anywhere. A bit further, about 45 or 75 kilometers, reach the Iranian Fajr-3 and Fajr-5 artillery rockets. With them, for example, the port city of Haifa can be attacked.
Threat from guided anti-tank missiles
Additionally, Hezbollah possesses ballistic artillery rockets such as the Zelzal-1 and -2 with ranges up to 200 kilometers, and the projectiles of the Fateh family. The latter, in the case of the Fateh-110, has a range of 300 kilometers and can carry a 500-kilogram warhead. "With these, any point in Israel can be hit with 20-meter accuracy," said Fabian Hinz of the International Institute for Strategic Studies to the "Spiegel".
Furthermore, Hezbollah is also said to possess cruise missiles, although details are scarce. Its arsenal is also said to include highly precise air defense missiles, as well as guided anti-tank missiles of Russian and Iranian origin. While these missiles have a shorter range, they often fly close to the ground, making them difficult to intercept by air defense. With anti-ship weapons like the Russian Yakhont and Chinese Silkworm missiles, Hezbollah could not only target ships but also harbor facilities or offshore platforms.
Hezbollah receives drones from Iran but also manufactures simple ones itself. The terrorist group likely has Iranian Shahed-136 one-way drones, also known as kamikaze drones. Russia uses these, for instance, against Ukraine. According to the manufacturer, they have a range of 2000 kilometers, but Western experts say this is significantly less.
Can Iron Dome be overwhelmed?
With these weapons, Hezbollah could attack Israel in various ways and pose significant challenges to Israel's air defense. The latter is actually very powerful. Notably, the Iron Dome intercepts short-range rockets and mortars with a claimed 90% success rate. Additionally, David's Sling deals with ballistic missiles of greater range and cruise missiles, while Arrow targets long-range missiles. Fighter jets can also intercept incoming projectiles.
However, the sheer number of rockets Hezbollah possesses could potentially overwhelm these systems. The British "Guardian" reported on U.S. fears that up to 3,000 rockets per day could be fired at Israel, potentially overloading the Iron Dome defense system. According to a forecast by a research project at Israel's Reichman University, Hezbollah could maintain this barrage for up to three weeks.
Among the thousands of projectiles per day would be inaccurate, simple rockets, but also highly precise cruise missiles with long ranges. According to the forecast, such weapons could target military bases, cities, or critical infrastructure like power plants and water supplies - or the air defense itself. On one hand, Israel's stockpile of interceptors would quickly dwindle under massive rocket attacks. On the other hand, air defense launchers could be taken out of action by targeted attacks. Just last June, Hezbollah published a video of an alleged attack on an Iron Dome system. However, the Israeli army denied that such a system had been damaged. Furthermore, drones made of wood or plastic are harder to detect by the Iron Dome's radar system.
Israel is aware of these issues. They have also outlined them to the USA. "We anticipate that at least some of the Iron Dome batteries may be overwhelmed" in the event of a war against Hezbollah, a senior US government official told CNN. Another government official confirmed that, in such a case, Israel would primarily need additional air defense systems and supplies for the Iron Dome shield, both of which the US would provide. According to the Israeli military broadcaster, Defense Minister Joav Galant has also spoken with his counterparts in the US, UK, Germany, and Italy in recent days. The aim is to recruit "as many partners as possible for an international coalition to support Israel".
The Center for Strategic and International Studies labeled Hezbollah as the "most heavily armed non-state actor worldwide." Hezbollah possesses ballistic artillery rockets such as the Zelzal-1 and -2 with ranges up to 200 kilometers, and the projectiles of the Fateh family, including the Fateh-110 with a range of 300 kilometers and a 500-kilogram warhead.
With these weapons, like the Iranian Fajr-3 and Fajr-5 artillery rockets and guided anti-tank missiles of Russian and Iranian origin, Hezbollah could pose significant challenges to Israel's air defense.
