"Hezbollah missiles can reach anywhere in Israel"
Iran, Hamas, and Hezbollah - all vow harsh retribution for the deaths of several high-ranking terrorists. They threaten to attack Israel - but how? Experts outline scenarios and risks - as a reaction without escalation is a tightrope act.
Iran has sworn revenge. The terrorist group Hamas threatens a "massive escalation." And Hezbollah is already planning a counterattack. The self-proclaimed "Axis of Resistance" wants revenge for the targeted killings of several high-ranking terrorists by Israel: Hamas' external operations chief, Ismail Haniyeh, was reportedly killed by a bomb in Tehran overnight on Wednesday. Hezbollah commander Fuad Shukr was killed shortly before that in an Israeli airstrike on a suburb of Beirut. And Hamas' military chief, Mohammed Deif, was killed in the Gaza Strip in mid-July, as Israel has now confirmed.
Iran and various terrorist groups are responding to this. Iran's supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, himself vowed revenge and ordered an attack on the arch-enemy. According to reports, leading representatives of the regime are already consulting with allies in Lebanon, Iraq, and Yemen about a counterattack. But what could this look like?
"I expect there will be a coordinated action," says Middle East expert Peter Lintl from the German Institute for International and Security Affairs. "Hamas is certainly limited in its capabilities. But there will likely be a reaction from Hezbollah and the Houthis in Yemen. It's unclear whether Iran will directly attack Israel again," Lintl told ntv.de.
In April, there was already an Iranian response: After the deaths of high-ranking commanders of the Iranian Revolutionary Guard in Damascus, Syria, the country fired more than 300 drones, ballistic missiles, and cruise missiles at Israel. Israel's air defenses and those of its allies claimed to have intercepted 99 percent of them. Expert Lintl believes it's possible that Iran could repeat such an attack. "But there's no guarantee that so many projectiles can be intercepted again."
"The situation is explosive"
Political scientist Thomas Jäger from the University of Cologne also expects a similar counterattack to the one in April. "Iran will react to restore its deterrent capability," he told ntv. The country does not want a large regional war. "It can be expected that there will be a hard blow that can be intercepted." The goal is to keep the violence in balance to prevent the spark from leading to an explosion.
A reaction without escalation - that's a tightrope act. Lintl sees the main problem as Israel having lost part of its escalation dominance with the massacre on October 7, 2023. "Iran and its allies have always assumed that Israel's reaction to an attack would be much harsher. They had more to lose and therefore held back," he explains. This state of affairs has been lost. "With the targeted killings and the reactions to them, the escalation dominance is currently being renegotiated," says Lintl. "The situation is explosive because it can escalate massively."
This is especially true for the border region with Lebanon. In the shadow of the war in the Gaza Strip, Israel has been engaged in fierce fighting with the Iran-backed terrorist group Hezbollah since October. Due to the ongoing rocket fire, tens of thousands of civilians have had to leave the area on both sides of the border. Experts see a constant risk of escalation in this conflict.
Given that Hezbollah is militarily far more powerful than Hamas in the Gaza Strip. Lintl sees an "immense danger" in their rocket potential. "They're talking about 120,000 or more rockets. And qualitatively, Hezbollah is stronger than Hamas: Their rockets can reach any location in Israel," he says. Moreover, with the sheer number of rockets, Hezbollah could overwhelm and overcome Israel's defensive shields.
"Not well-prepared for war with Hezbollah"
There are ongoing debates in Israel about attacking or at least expelling Hezbollah from the immediate border area. "But I don't believe Israel currently has an interest in further escalation. That applies to Hezbollah and Iran as well," says Lintl. "I still hope that there won't be a large-scale war between Hezbollah and Israel like there was between Hamas and Israel."
Such a war would be much more dangerous for Israel due to Hezbollah's strength. "Israel is not well-prepared for a war with Hezbollah," said Middle East expert Guido Steinberg of the German Institute for International and Security Affairs to the ARD's "Tagesthemen". He points to the 2006 war against Hezbollah in Lebanon - Israel had to withdraw because it couldn't defeat the terrorist group. "If a similar war were to happen now, it's not clear at all how Israel could successfully lead it." A destruction of Hezbollah, as is Israel's goal in the Gaza Strip with Hamas, is not even thinkable.
Steinberg's outlook is pessimistic: "If you look at the events of the last few months, it's hard to imagine that the events around Gaza won't lead to an escalation," he said to Deutsche Welle. Israel will not tolerate Hezbollah remaining a threat on its northern border. "There will be some kind of confrontation. And this confrontation will happen latest before Iran becomes nuclear-armed."
Considering the significant rocket capabilities of Hezbollah in Lebanon, Lintl highlights an "immense danger." With an estimated 120,000 rockets and their ability to reach any location in Israel, Hezbollah's superior qualitative rockets could potentially overwhelm and overpower Israel's defensive shields in a conflict.
Due to Hezbollah's strength, Israel may not be well-prepared for a full-scale war with this terrorist group. As noted by Middle East expert Guido Steinberg, Israel struggled to defeat Hezbollah during the 2006 war in Lebanon and may face similar challenges if a similar conflict were to occur today.
