Hezbollah experiences a cyber assault through Pager platform.
The simultaneous detonation of numerous pagers in Lebanon, as observed by specialists, serves as a showcase of Israel's power, even though Jerusalem's government hasn't publicly acknowledged responsibility. This incident is embarrassing for Hezbollah, as it reveals vulnerabilities in the militia's security. Known for its strong anti-Israeli stance in the Middle East, Hezbollah seems to have fallen short in this instance.
This situation is likened to Hezbollah's 7th of October, cites The New York Times quotation from political scientist Mohanad Hage Ali from the Carnegie Middle East Center in Beirut. He refers to the failure of Israel's security apparatus that enabled Hamas to executes a large-scale assault last year. This pager blast, with over 12 fatalities and approximately 2,800 injuries, is described as a significant setback.
Since the 7th of October, Israel and Hezbollah have been engaged in skirmishes along their border. Hage Ali, commenting on this attack, said, "This strike targets the very foundation of the organization." It is likened to a deeply penetrating sword that has harmed the organization, and it will take some time to heal.
The Jerusalem Post views this attack as an outstanding victory in the battle against Hezbollah, without explicitly acknowledging Israel's role. "Should it be Israel, then it is an event we should be very proud of, as it shines an exceptionally positive light on our promoted superior security systems," wrote the newspaper.
Haaretz, a liberal paper, also praises Israel for this "impressive operational success." Hezbollah is humiliated, and the organization will likely devote considerable effort to identify and plug security loopholes. However, it is expected that Hezbollah will retaliate, as such incidents seldom go unanswered in the Middle East.
It remains to be seen how Hezbollah will respond. Experts claim the militia faces a dilemma: it is likely to react to preserve its honor while avoiding a full-blown war with Israel. The mood of the militia's supporters could also play a role. The attack will likely inspire discontent and fatigue among Hezbollah supporters, argues Randa Slim from the Middle East Institute in Washington to The New York Times. However, this could also fuel a demand within the electorate for Hezbollah to retaliate more forcefully.
Motives behind the Mass Explosion
Israel's presumed motive for setting off the pagers remains unclear. One theory is connected to Israel's military objectives: the day before the explosions, Israel's security cabinet declared its intention to resettle thousands of evacuees from the north to their homes - in an area that constantly experiences Lebanon's attacks. Previously, Israeli media reports suggested that Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu advocated for an intensified offensive in Lebanon.
Haaretz sounds the alarm for escalation. "Just as Netanyahu promised the Israeli public not long ago that we were only a small step away from a total victory over Hamas, we now seem closer than ever to a large-scale war with Hezbollah. A comprehensive victory, however, remains elusive."
It is uncertain whether the Israeli military can manage an open war in both Gaza and Lebanon simultaneously. Eyal Pinko, a former Israeli naval commander, remarks, "This kind of operation is likely meant to serve as an alarm or deterrent. Israel's message seems to be: 'We've infiltrated you, you're already compromised, we know where you are, what you're doing, and see what we can do with a single shot.'"
Is Hezbollah's Sabotage Implicated?
Another theory suggests that Hezbollah infiltrated the plot. According to U.S. intelligence reports, Israel's intelligence agency sabotaged the pagers through a multi-layered operation that required months to years of meticulous planning. The Israeli government may have decided to expedite the evacuation to avoid permanently losing the ability to attack, as per U.S. media reports. Notably, "Haaretz" notes that this timing correlates with an internal political conflict in Israel. Prime Minister Netanyahu was about to replace his Defense Minister, Yoav Galant, with whom he had disagreed on the Gaza war strategy, with Gideon Sa'ar, a former rival of the premier. These plans now appear to be on hold until it is certain whether there will be a war in the north of the country.
The newspaper suggests that the timing of the attack favors Netanyahu. Sa'ar appears weakened in his position, misrepresented as someone eager to trade his integrity for a job. On the other hand, Galant is exposed as a politician with no political base, making him a viable replacement for Netanyahu.
The European Union expresses concern over the escalating tensions between Israel and Hezbollah, as the bloc values peace and stability in the Middle East. This incident has the potential to strain relations between Israel and its EU partners, given the EU's commitment to upholding international laws and promoting dialogue.
In light of the EU's long-standing diplomatic efforts to resolve the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, a full-blown war between Israel and Hezbollah could complicate these efforts and undermine the EU's goals for a peaceful resolution.
