Heat bubble, cold front, sultriness - is this summer?
Within a week, the summer has completely changed its face - from heat to refreshing coolness. But which way is the pendulum swinging now? NTV meteorologist Bjoern Alexander has little hope - it's still swinging in the same pattern as the past few weeks. And no weather model sees a stable situation for longer periods of time.
ntv.de: Last weekend it was still hot, it was quite cool recently, and now the warming sun is laughing again. Is the summer indecisive?
Bjoern Alexander: Definitely in the near future. After all, the next deviation in the summer's swinging pattern is already set. On Saturday, we will be graced with a small heat pocket before the next cold front arrives. At the beginning of next week, it will then be warm and pleasant again. At the same time, low-pressure areas are continuing to move further southward, so that we will at least be affected by wet and correspondingly muggy air starting on Tuesday.
Doesn't that sound bad for the weather setup of the summer?
Not at all in the short term. But: The so-called Seven-Sleeper period lasts until around the 10th of July. And at least according to the experimental long-term forecast, there are still small chances for a calmer July course.
What would that mean for us?
If we look at the experimental long-term trends of the American Weather Service NOAA, it shows a felt too cold and too dry July. Prognoses based on the European Weather Model also see no breakthrough of the major heat. In other words, we have conflicting signals, but still a big problem for all summer lovers.
What's the problem?
It seems to be very difficult for the weather kitchen to credit us with a stable high-pressure system. In other words: The most likely solution for the summer 2024, according to the current status, is a rather unstable course.
What can we expect for the coming days?
On Friday, it will be mostly pleasant for most people with a mostly dry change between sun and clouds. Only in the afternoon and evening will it be slightly gray in some places.
Where will the sunshine be?
It will be the most beautiful in the south and southeast, while it will rain in the northwest and north of our country - sometimes heavily. Temperatures will range from windy 17 to 24 degrees in the sun, to 26 degrees in the south with a light foehn.
How does it look in the evening for the quarterfinals of the German team against Spain?
The weather distribution remains similar and we can expect festive temperatures of around 20 degrees in the south and around 16 degrees in the north.
And on Saturday?
It will be mostly dry and sunny in the morning in most places, except in the west where the next cold front's showers are already knocking. Thunder and lightning won't wait long and will shift eastward throughout the day. There is a risk of heavy rain, hail, and strong winds. Temperatures in the lightning summer will reach up to 32 degrees, while the Eifel will only get fresh 18 degrees.
What does Sunday bring us?
The rainy front will persist in the south and southeast. The northwest will also receive a few more showers. In the broad band in between, it will be nice and warm with up to 23 degrees. In the rain at the Alps, it will only be 16 degrees.
What prospects do we have in the next week?
For Monday, it looks really fine and pleasantly warm. We don't feel the upcoming heat yet, with temperatures between 19 to 26 degrees. However, this changes unfortunately on Tuesday and Wednesday, as it gets warmer and more sweaty. Heat hotspots are first in the South and East, with peaks between 30 to 32 degrees.
What about the thunderstorms?
On Tuesday, it might get increasingly stormy in the West and Northwest - there is potential for thunderstorms. On Wednesday and Thursday, the thunderstorm focus with thunderstorm risk moves gradually to the east.
At what temperatures?
Temperatures are mostly between 25 to 31 or 32 degrees on Wednesday, except for the less overheated North. In particular, it is very humid before the thunderstorms. By Thursday, it becomes a bit more bearable with temperatures between 20 to 28 degrees.
The international weather forecasts suggest a challenging summer, with the American Weather Service NOAA predicting a felt too cold and too dry July. On a more optimistic note, some European models suggest a potential breakthrough of the major heat.
Despite the conflicting signals, the unstable weather pattern is expected to continue, as seen in the challenges of establishing a stable high-pressure system across Europe.
