Harris and Trump are adjusting their television advertisement strategies in a race towards Election Day.
The focus of crucial topics, such as abortion, immigration, and criminal justice, shifted, with the Harris campaign transitioning from defensive ads emphasizing the vice president's law enforcement history, and the Trump campaign underscoring economic appeals – the leading issue for voters in this election.
Ad tracking firm AdImpact reports on the issues addressed in broadcast TV campaign ads and measures the budget associated with these spots. Comparing the past two months demonstrates how each campaign adapts its message and reveals the proportion of resources dedicated to highlighting various issues.
Harris campaign ads
Following Harris' first full month as a candidate after replacing Joe Biden as the Democratic ticket's frontrunner, her campaign invested $24.5 million in crime-related ads, accounting for almost half of the about $52.4 million spent on broadcast TV ads overall in August. According to AdImpact data, crime was the most prominent issue in Harris' August ads, with her campaign attempting to counteract harsh GOP criticisms of her record as California attorney general and San Francisco district attorney.
In September, Harris' spending on crime-related ads shrank substantially to just $28,000, less than 1% of her monthly broadcast TV ad budget.
Simultaneously, Harris' campaign allotted more financial resources to addressing reproductive rights, a significant concern for many Democratic and independent voters since the overturning of Roe v. Wade and the implementation of stringent abortion restrictions in mainly Republican-governed states. In August, the Harris campaign spent $7.8 million on broadcast TV ads addressing reproductive rights, roughly 15% of its total spending for that month. In September, expenses for this category escalated to $25 million, and the proportion more than doubled to 32%, making it the second most mentioned subject in Harris' advertising.
Economic themes dominated Harris' campaign advertising throughout August and September. Tax reform emerged as one of the top issues discussed in Harris' campaign ads in both months, representing 37% of spending in August and 40% in September.
Trump campaign ads
Pro-Trump third-party groups have persistently highlighted immigration and crime in harsh attack ads, but the Trump campaign itself underwent significant changes to its messaging budget over the past two months, accentuating economic themes more prominently.
In August, the Trump campaign allocated around $15.5 million for broadcast TV ads focusing on immigration, approximately 41% of its monthly broadcast TV expenses. In September, that figure decreased markedly to only $10,500, accounted for less than 1% of the Trump campaign's overall broadcast TV spending. Crime, often associated with immigration in Trump campaign ads, also witnessed a sharp decline, dropping from a 41% share in August to a minuscule share of less than 1% in September.
Concurrently, the campaign diverted more funding to economic messaging. In August, inflation was the principal issue addressed in Trump campaign ads, appearing in approximately 57% of its broadcast TV advertising; in September, that proportion increased to 80%. Additionally, housing rose as a significant component of campaign messaging, claiming 77% of its broadcast TV investments in September, a significant escalation from 20% in August.
Campaign advertising from both the Harris and Trump parties represents only a segment of the total presidential race advertising, with super PACs and other outside groups also injecting tens of millions of dollars into the airwaves. These external groups' ads display similar messaging strategies and emphasize similar topics as the presidential campaigns.
Focus on battleground states
While their messaging has altered, both campaigns have consistently concentrated advertising efforts on seven key states. Since Harris assumed the nomination, these states – Pennsylvania, Michigan, Georgia, Wisconsin, Arizona, North Carolina, and Nevada – have seen almost $930 million in ad spending between July 22, the day after Biden withdrew from the race, to the end of September, accounting for more than $1.1 billion spent on presidential campaign ads in total during this period.
Pennsylvania is considered the central battleground for achieving the necessary 270 electoral votes, and it has drawn massive ad spending – more than $250 million since July 22 to October 31. Democrats have outspent Republicans in Pennsylvania by around $144 million to $105 million in that period, and both sides have invested more in Pennsylvania than any other battleground state.
Michigan ranks second, with Democrats outspending Republicans by approximately $115 million to $71 million since Harris became the nominee. Democratic spending in Pennsylvania and Michigan outstrips their expenditures in any other battleground, highlighting the significance of the "blue wall" states to the party's electoral strategy.
Georgia ranks third, attracting about $132 million in ad investments since Harris became the nominee. The ad battles in the Peach State have been relatively close, with Democrats marginally outspending Republicans by around $66 million to $65 million.
Together, these three states – Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Georgia – absorbed approximately $570 million in presidential ad spending between July 22 and October 31, nearly half (49%) of all such spending during these two-plus months.
Wisconsin and Arizona are the two other states that have seen more than $100 million in combined ad spending since Harris took the nomination, and Democrats have outspent Republicans on advertising in both by at least $10 million. Democrats have also outspent Republicans in North Carolina and Nevada, complementing the seven main battlegrounds.
Another state receiving an excessive amount of advertising expenditures is deep-red Nebraska, with a single electoral vote at stake in a state that distributes some of its electoral votes based on congressional districts. Democrats have invested over $8 million in advertising there, while Republicans have only allocated slightly over $200,000.
Future predictions
Elections and external organizations often reserve advertising slots well in advance, and both parties have secured hundreds of millions of dollars in ad time leading up to Election Day. However, as more funds flow in and spending targets adjust, these figures may fluctuate. As of October, Democrats appeared to hold a substantial edge on television, with approximately $344 million in reserved ad time compared to Republicans' $225 million.
In the seven battleground states, the gap narrows, but Democrats still maintain the advantage, with $269 million to Republicans' $222 million. Additionally, Democratic advertisers have over $50 million in national presidential reservations, extending their overall advantage.
However, this scenario could shift rapidly, given that several highly influential, wealthy megadonors – some who have previously donated tens of millions to the opposing sides' super PACs – have no limitations on further contributions. Their willingness to contribute additional millions to the race could intensify the advertising conflict.
These factors have led AdImpact to predict that this election will be the most expensive in US history, with an estimated $10.2 billion spent on political advertising across various levels of government. According to their estimations, this would mark a 13% increase from the previous record of $9.02 billion set during the 2020 campaign.
In response to the changing voter concerns, particularly reproductive rights becoming a significant issue after the overturning of Roe v. Wade, the Harris campaign significantly increased its spending on ads addressing this topic, allocating $25 million in September, doubling the proportion to 32%, making it the second most mentioned subject in her advertising.
Despite the initial focus on crime-related ads, the Trump campaign shifted its messaging budget, reducing its investment in immigration and crime to less than 1% in September, and instead, promoting economic themes more prominently, with inflation becoming the principal issue addressed in approximately 80% of its broadcast TV advertising in September.
