Hamas is much more popular after the massacre

A survey in Gaza and the West Bank shows that Hamas has significantly increased its approval ratings. At the same time, very few people are aware of the videos of the atrocities. Hardly anyone believes that the terrorists have really committed war crimes.

In the West Bank, support for Hamas more than tripled after the massacre on October 7. In the Gaza Strip, support has also risen, but not significantly. These are the results of the latest survey conducted by the Palestinian Center for Policy and Survey Research (PSR) among Palestinians in both territories.

When asked which political party or political direction they support, 44 percent of respondents in the West Bank voted for Hamas. Three months earlier, support in the West Bank was only 12%, meaning that the terror group is clearly on the rise, while Fatah, which is in power there, is losing a lot of support. Only 16 percent of the population would still vote for President Mahmoud Abbas' party. In September, 26 percent still supported Fatah. The rest of those surveyed said they supported third parties or had no opinion.

In the Gaza Strip, whose population is currently suffering greatly from the Israeli military counterattack, political opinions have remained much more constant than in the West Bank. In Gaza, support for Hamas now stands at 42%, compared to 38% three months ago. This smaller increase reflects the fact that people in Gaza also rate Hamas based on their own experience over the past 16 years, as they have lived under the control of the terrorist group's political arm since 2007. According to the survey figures, this makes people more skeptical of Hamas propaganda.

People in the West Bank, on the other hand, tend to heroize Hamas from a distance. The surveys were conducted among more than 1,200 adults, 481 of them in the entire Gaza Strip. Despite the gains, however, the terror group's approval rating remains well below 50 percent. The majority of people in both the West Bank and the Gaza Strip therefore still do not support Hamas.

"People don't want to see it"

With regard to Hamas' goals, the overwhelming majority of respondents (81%) buy Hamas' narrative of fighting for freedom. These Palestinians are therefore convinced that the attack on October 7 was carried out in response to "attacks by settlers on the Al-Aqsa Mosque and residents of the West Bank as well as for the release of Palestinian prisoners". On this issue, people in Gaza (69 percent) are once again much more skeptical of Hamas than those in the West Bank (89 percent).

The overall positive view of Hamas' motives for the massacre in southern Israel can be explained, among other things, by media usage in the Palestinian territories: 85% of people state that they have not seen any videos from international or social media showing atrocities committed by Hamas members against Israeli civilians. Only 7 percent of respondents from the West Bank say they have seen these films, while the figure is higher in the Gaza Strip - 25 percent.

We can only speculate about the reasons why so few Palestinians have apparently seen the films, which were distributed by Hamas itself, especially at the beginning of the attack. "People don't want to see it," is the assessment of pollster Khalil Shakiki, who conducted the survey in cooperation with the Konrad Adenauer Foundation. By refusing to use these sources, "people can maintain complete denial of the atrocities", said Shakiki when presenting the figures. "I didn't see it, so it didn't happen."

This attitude is reflected in opinions on Hamas atrocities: only 5 percent of Palestinians surveyed in the West Bank believe reports of Hamas brutality and say it has committed war crimes. The figure in the Gaza Strip is significantly higher, but still only 17 percent.

Population not exactly peaceful

Israel's current actions in the Gaza Strip are assessed very differently: 95% of all respondents consider Israel guilty of war crimes in Gaza. At 94 and 97 percent, the residents of the West Bank and Gaza rate Israel's behavior very similarly.

This allows Hamas to successfully spread the narrative of its "supposed fight for freedom" against the enemy Israel, but does not increase its popularity among Palestinians enough to win the support of a majority of the population. However, this does not mean that the people in Gaza and the West Bank are peaceful per se: In both areas, two thirds of Palestinians are convinced that, in principle, armed struggle is the best means of ending the Israeli occupation.

There are therefore significantly more Palestinians who support armed struggle for freedom in principle than there are supporters of Hamas, which claims to be fighting precisely this armed struggle for a free Palestine. Shikaki explains this with the radical Islamist orientation of the terrorist group, which repels many people, especially those who do not follow the Muslim faith. "Many who favor armed struggle cannot support Hamas because they reject the values that Hamas stands for," says the researcher.

A negotiated solution after the end of the fighting will therefore be difficult in any case. In the West Bank, the percentage of those in favor of violence rises to almost 70 percent; in Gaza, 56 percent are in favor of fighting Israel with weapons. Surprisingly, the proportion of those who would seek a two-state solution with Israel even rose slightly after the October massacre and during the Israeli counter-attack: in both regions overall from 32% to 34%.