- Growing Concerns About War in the Middle East
Israel and Iran are stoking fears of a larger war in the Middle East with their latest threats, with consequences far beyond the region. The seven major Western industrial nations (G7) are urging de-escalation, but the fronts between the hostile leaderships in Tehran and Jerusalem seem hardened. In the face of an announced Iranian retaliatory strike, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu consulted with his military and intelligence chiefs. So far, there is "no definitive picture" of the expected attacks, reported Israeli television channel 12. According to other reports, Iran could strike as early as Monday.
The most dangerous crisis in the Middle East region in decades was triggered by deadly attacks on two high-ranking targets of the Israeli security apparatus last week. In the early hours of Wednesday, an explosion in a guesthouse of the Iranian government in Tehran killed Ismail Haniyeh, the foreign chief of the Islamic Hamas. A few hours earlier, an air strike killed high-ranking Hezbollah commander Fuad Shukr in the Lebanese capital Beirut.
Israel claimed responsibility for the attack on Shukr, but there have been no official statements of this kind from Jerusalem regarding the attack on Haniyeh. Iran and the Hamas, which is allied with it, hold the Jewish state responsible in both cases.
The leadership in Tehran and the Shiite militia Hezbollah, which is supported by it, threatened Israel with massive retaliation for the attacks. Netanyahu's government warned of serious consequences in this case. A regional wildfire is feared if, as announced by Tehran, the militias allied with Iran in the region also participate. These include Hezbollah in Lebanon and Hamas in the Gaza Strip, as well as the Houthis in Yemen and militias in Iraq and Syria.
Diplomats in Tehran - G7 consultations via video
According to a newspaper report, Arab diplomats are said to have appeared in Tehran and there advocated for a reaction to the assassinations that is as restrained as possible. However, the Iranian leadership reportedly told the envoys that it is indifferent whether the planned retaliatory strike triggers a war, the Wall Street Journal reported, citing people familiar with the contents of the conversations.
Iranian President Massoud Peseschkian told the Jordanian Foreign Minister Aiman al-Safadi in connection with the killing of Haniyeh: "This cowardly act was a violation of all international laws and a big mistake by the Zionists (Israel), which will not go unanswered." His government wants peace and stability in the region, but the prerequisite for this is "an end to Israeli crimes, especially in Gaza," Peseschkian was quoted as saying by the presidential office.
In a joint video conference, the G7 foreign ministers called on all parties to the conflict to exercise the utmost restraint to prevent further escalation. In the current situation, dialogue and restraint are needed, said Italy's Foreign Minister Antonio Tajani. His country currently holds the G7 presidency and organized the conference, which was convened at short notice and also includes Germany.
Unclear is when the threatened retaliation could occur. In statements from Tehran and Hezbollah, there have been repeated references to "the coming days." The news portal "Axios" reported, citing assessments from three American and Israeli government officials, that Iran could attack as early as Monday. U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken reportedly told his G7 counterparts about this possibility, mentioning a timeframe of the next 24 to 48 hours.
Israel can count on the support of the U.S. and likely other allies in intercepting Iranian and its proxy groups' missiles, cruise missiles, and drones with modern defense systems. U.S. Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin spoke with his Israeli counterpart Joav Galant on Sunday (local time) and assured him of "ironclad support" for self-defense, according to a Pentagon statement. They also discussed troop movements as a security measure. Austin also advocated for a ceasefire in the Gaza conflict and an agreement for the release of hostages remaining in the Gaza Strip, according to reports from Washington.
Israel's citizens are urged to stay vigilant. The army spokesman, Daniel Hagari, said on Sunday evening that the civilian population should remain alert. "Defense is not foolproof," he emphasized. The situation remains unchanged, but in case of need, people must quickly seek shelter and follow all instructions.
In the early hours of Monday, the Israeli military reported a nighttime attack from Lebanon involving several suspicious aerial objects. However, it did not appear to be a large-scale attack. The air defense was deployed, and one of the objects was shot down near the Kibbutz Ayelet Hashahar, the army reported on the Telegram platform. Two soldiers were lightly injured. In other parts of northern Israel, air raid sirens turned out to be false alarms - a common occurrence in recent days.
Prime Minister Netanyahu maintained his tough rhetoric on Sunday evening. "Iran and its clients are trying to encircle us with a ring of terrorism," he said at a memorial event for right-wing Zionist leader Zeev Jabotinsky (1880-1940). "We are ready to confront them on any front - near or far. Anyone who tries to harm us will pay a heavy price."
The latest escalation is a result of the war Israel has been waging against Hamas in the Gaza Strip for nearly ten months. This war was triggered by the unprecedented massacre carried out by Hamas and other groups' terrorists in southern Israel on October 7, 2022, killing 1200 people and kidnapping another 250 as hostages into the Gaza Strip.
Israel's goal is to dismantle Hamas as a military and political organization. However, countless Palestinian civilians in the Gaza Strip have also been killed, and a significant portion of its infrastructure has been destroyed. As the war drags on, Israel faces growing international criticism.
Talks on a Gaza ceasefire and hostage release have been at a standstill for months. Indirect negotiations between Israel and Hamas, mediated by the U.S., Egypt, and Qatar, have been making little progress. A recent round of talks between an Israeli delegation and Egyptian officials in Cairo ended without results, according to Israeli media reports.
Critics and even U.S. ally Israel's Prime Minister Netanyahu are increasingly blamed for the stalemate in talks. He is accused of making repeated new demands, making an agreement impossible.
In response to the attacks on two high-ranking targets from the Israeli security apparatus, Iran and Hamas, which is allied with Iran, hold Israel responsible. Despite Israel claiming responsibility for the attack on Hezbollah commander Fuad Shukr, there have been no official statements about the attack on Ismail Haniyeh in Jerusalem.
The G7 foreign ministers have urged all parties involved to exercise the utmost restraint to prevent further escalation in the Palestinian territories, expressing concerns about the potential for a larger war in the Middle East.
