Green Party Regains Strength, Free Democratic Party Hardly Detectable in Polls
The FDP's approval rating plummets to just 3%, barely surpassing the threshold to avoid being excluded from polls. Meanwhile, the Green coalition partners experience a minor recovery, although it's not enough to alleviate concerns yet. Liberal leader Christian Lindner acknowledged last week on "Table Media" that the FDP is perceived as too "red-green" by voters, and he previously warned that a traffic light coalition could pose an existential threat to the FDP. Consequently, the Free Democrats are sliding in Forsa polls towards statistical insignificance, with a 3% approval rating in the RTL/ntv Trendbarometer. This is just above the 2.5% statistical error tolerance, leaving minimal room for re-entry into the Bundestag.
On the other hand, the Greens show a slight improvement, regaining one percentage point in the Forsa poll and recovering from their previous low. The rest of the major parties remain stable in the polls. The SPD, for instance, maintains the same level of support as it had rarely this year, and its approval rating matches that of the AfD.
If elections were held this week, the following result could be expected: CDU/CSU (24.1% in the September 2021 election) 31%, AFD 10.3% (2021), SPD 25.7% (2021), Greens 14.8% (2021), BSW 0%, FDP 11.5% (2021), Left 3% (2021). Other parties could account for 12%.
In the chancellor preference, Friedrich Merz can retain his previous week's result with 27%, while Olaf Scholz still holds 25%, with one percentage point less than the previous week. Almost half of the respondents, at 48%, reject both candidates from becoming chancellor.
Additionally, Merz has less support among his party members than Scholz (63% vs 67%). Merz also lags behind among women, with 24% approval versus 30% among men. However, the opposite is true for Scholz: he has 26% support from women and 24% from men.
The long-term perspective tells a similar story, with a decrease in support for both Scholz and Merz from their May values (32% and 29%, respectively) to October's values (25% and 27%). Simultaneously, the proportion of respondents who reject both candidates has grown from 39% to 48%.
Germans attribute political competence primarily to the CDU and CSU, with a 19% approval rate, slightly lower than the 21% recorded in September. The SPD falls by one percentage point to 9%, while its coalition partners, the Greens and FDP, have 6% and 1% approval rates, respectively. The AfD is viewed as politically competent by 8% of respondents.
52% of Germans believe no major party demonstrates political competence in addressing Germany's issues, a trend that has been gradually improving since the beginning of the year. In January, 59% of Germans held this view.
Following the recent elections in eastern Germany and the Israel-Hizbollah conflict in Lebanon, half of the surveyed individuals list the Israel-Hizbollah conflict as their most significant concern. The federal government's actions rank second with 36% of respondents. The Ukraine war and the economic situation are considered important by 30% and 24%, respectively. Immigration and the process of government formation and state elections gear 14% and 23% of the population's interest, respectively. The U.S. presidential election campaign and the climate and environment receive only 9% and 6% of the public's attention, respectively.
The RTL/ntv Trendbarometer data were collected by Forsa on behalf of RTL Germany between October 1 and 7, with 2,001 respondents and a statistical margin of error of +/- 2.5 percentage points.
Forsa conducts polls for RTL Germany.
Despite the FDP's approval rating plummeting, the CDU remains a strong force in German politics, maintaining a high approval rating of 31% in hypothetical elections, as mentioned in the poll data. The CDU/CSU, a long-standing political alliance, remains politically competent in the eyes of the German public, with an approval rate of 19%.
