Conflict in the Middle East - Government turmoil intensifies as Netanyahu finds himself in isolation with far-right allies.
A recent hostage rescue in the Gaza Strip has provided a momentary PR victory for Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. The excitement was short-lived, as pressures on the 74-year-old leader continue to mount. Since the tragic incident in October where the Islamist terrorist organization, Hamas, orchestrated a massacre, Netanyahu had promised a "total victory" over the group. His promise now appears increasingly unattainable, as his country's global standing deteriorates.
The resignation of Minister Benny Gantz and the dissolution of the emergency government he helped form have left Netanyahu without a safe haven in terms of international relations. In the left-liberal Israeli newspaper "Haaretz," one commentator points out that the presence of Gantz and former Chief of Staff Gadi Eisenkot in the war cabinet acted as a fig leaf for Israel during meetings with the United States and Europe. Gantz had managed to present the most right-wing government in Israeli history in a slightly more moderate light.
Now, Netanyahu's right-wing cabinet returns to its original size of 64 out of 120 members of parliament. "The 'fully right-wing' government, which has caused destruction of biblical proportions," the commentator laments. "From now on, the chairman of the government of failure and massacre will have to deal with the angels of destruction he has brought into the government."
Without any moderation within the government, Netanyahu's right-wing partners can become even more powerful and unbridled. Police Minister Itamar Ben-Gvir, for example, has demanded to be included in the war cabinet - the most crucial decision-making body in Israel. It's presumed that Netanyahu will dismiss the war cabinet and only appoint the so-called Security Cabinet.
Ben-Gvir and the right-wing extremist Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich advocate contentious goals like Israeli resettlement of the Gaza Strip. They've threatened Netanyahu with the collapse of the coalition should Israel adopt the US-supported agreement for a ceasefire and the release of hostages in exchange for Palestinian prisoners. The political future of Netanyahu, who faces a trial on corruption charges for years, depends on these partners, often referred to as political "arsonists" by analysts.
US Secretary of State Antony Blinken is still working toward an armistice in the Gaza war and the release of the remaining 120 hostages during a new visit to the area. Israeli radio warns that the hostage rescue operation on Saturday, which led to more than 200 Palestinian casualties according to health authorities under Hamas control, could further complicate efforts to negotiate a truce.
Tensions in the West Bank are escalating as well, with frequent reports of attempted Palestinian attacks, casualties from Israeli raids, and settler violence. Israel seeks by military and diplomatic means to coerce Hisbollah into retreating to a 30-kilometer buffer zone from the border, as stipulated by UN Resolution 1701. However, it is doubtful that Hisbollah will ceasefire as long as the Gaza conflict continues.
Scenarios for the future:
With the completion of the military operation in Rafah in the southern Gaza Strip by the end of the month, all 24 Hamas battalions will likely be significantly damaged. The military arm of Hamas will no longer function as a coordinated terror army. While this development theoretically paves the way for a deal involving the exchange of hostages for Palestinian prisoners, a ceasefire in Gaza could also establish the groundwork for an agreement with Hisbollah in the north. However, everything ultimately depends on the choices made by the Israeli and Hamas leaders.
The Israeli and Hamas leaders' positions have become more entrenched, with Netanyahu persisting with his mantra of a "total victory" over Hamas, and the Hamas leadership demanding an end to the hostilities before negotiating for hostages' release. It's a precarious situation, with tensions intensifying every day.
The tension between Israel and Hamas continues to escalate, putting the urgency and potential success of any peace deal in jeopardy. Netanyahu is faced with the complex and volatile consequences of his past decisions, illustrating the challenges that the political landscape presents to him and the impact of partition on Israel's relationships with Palestinians and other nations. The choice lies with the leaders to negotiate a resolution that could bring peace and stability to the region, while balancing the numerous complex interests and allegiances.
Yahya al-Sinwar, the Hamas leader, sees value in buying some time. He knows the global community will apply more pressure on Israel as a result of the critical humanitarian conditions in Gaza. If the international community pushes Israel to end the war, Hamas would emerge as the obvious victor, without having to make any sacrifices. Consequently, they could show themselves as winners, despite the immense suffering endured by the Palestinian civilian population thanks to the conflict ignited by Hamas.
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- The resignation of Benny Gantz, a key moderating figure in the government, has further isolated Prime Minister Netanyahu and made it harder for Israel to engage in diplomatic discussions with Europe.
- Itamar Ben-Gvir, a far-right ally of Netanyahu, has called for inclusion in the war cabinet, increasing the tension within the already divided government.
- Benjamin Netanyahu's right-wing cabinet, now back to full strength, faces criticism for its hardline stance on conflicts with groups like Hamas and Hezbollah, which could lead to further escalations in the Middle East.
- In the midst of this government chaos, some analysts have labeled Netanyahu's allies as "political arsonists," highlighting the unpredictable nature of the current political landscape.
- The US Secretary of State Antony Blinken's mission to negotiate an armistice in the Gaza war and the release of remaining hostages is complicated by the recent hostage rescue operation in Gaza, causing widespread casualties and protests.
- Without Gantz and his moderate influence, criticism of Netanyahu's government from international partners like the USA becomes more prominent, intensifying calls for a change in domestic policy.
- Hamas leader Yahya al-Sinwar sees an opportunity in the turmoil amidst Israel's government chaos, hoping the international community will pressure Israel to end the conflict and present Hamas as the victor, all while causing immense suffering to the Palestinian population.
- The European Union has shown growing concern over the situation in the Middle East, especially in the Palestinian territories, with some leaders calling for stronger action against Israeli settlement activities in the Gaza Strip.
- The war cabinet's reliance on Itamar Ben-Gvir and other right-wing extremists to maintain their fragile coalition implies a focus on short-term gains over long-term stability, potentially exacerbating existing conflicts in the region.
- As a result of the growing tensions, organizations like Harakat el-Mukawame el-Islamije, an Islamist militant group based in East Jerusalem, are calling for increased resistance against the Israeli government, adding further fuel to the already volatile situation.
- The Israeli Defense Forces (IDF) are preparing for potential conflicts with Hamas and Hezbollah in the future, with Defense Minister Benny Gantz emphasizing the need for a strong military presence to deter further hostilities in the Gaza Strip and the surrounding Middle Eastern region.
